Capital Spending Guidance - Cenovus Energy Inc. expects capital investment between $5 billion and $5.3 billion in 2026, including $350 million of turnaround costs, which will be capitalized in 2026 [1] - Approximately $3.5-$3.6 billion will be allocated for sustaining capital expenditures to maintain base production and operations, while an additional $1.2-$1.4 billion will be dedicated to growth and expansion projects [1] Upstream Production Outlook - Total upstream production for 2026 is guided in the range of 945,000 to 985,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), indicating a year-over-year growth of 4% after adjusting for the acquisition of MEG Energy [2] - Oil sands production is expected to contribute 755,000-780,000 BOE/d, with operating costs per BOE projected between $11.25 and $12.75 [2] - Conventional production is projected to be 120,000-125,000 BOE/d, with operating costs between $11 and $12 per BOE [2] Downstream Throughput and Refining Guidance - Expected downstream crude throughput is projected to be between 430,000 and 450,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), implying a crude utilization rate of nearly 91% to 95% [3] - Canadian refining throughput is estimated at 105,000 to 110,000 bbl/d, with operating costs expected between $11.50 and $12.50 per barrel [3] - U.S. refining throughput is guided between 325,000 and 340,000 bbl/d, with operating costs in the range of $11 to $12 per barrel [3] Corporate Guidance - General and administrative expenses, excluding stock-based compensation, are expected to be in the range of $625-$675 million, remaining broadly flat compared to the previous year [4] - The company anticipates incurring expenses of approximately $150-$200 million related to integration, transaction, and other one-off costs in 2026 [4] Overall Strategy - Cenovus's capital guidance for 2026 reflects a strategy of reducing growth investments compared to 2025, while focusing on debt reduction and returning value to shareholders [5] - The company aims to maintain safe and reliable operations, cost competitiveness, and strengthen its outlook for the coming year [5]

Core Insights - Oil markets are projected to face a persistent oversupply in 2026, with forecasts indicating Brent and WTI prices may fall below $60 per barrel due to rising inventories and weaker demand growth [1][3][4] - Large-cap energy companies with diversified operations and strong financial models are positioned to provide stability and consistent dividends in this challenging environment [2][5][6] Oil Market Outlook - Global crude supply is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to increased inventories throughout 2026 [3][4] - Brent crude is forecasted to average around $55 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be just over $50 per barrel as the surplus deepens [3][4] Investment Opportunities - Income-focused investors should prioritize companies with durable dividends, as large-cap energy firms can offer predictable cash flow despite commodity price declines [5][6] - Canadian Natural Resources, Chevron, and Kinder Morgan are highlighted for their high dividend yields and robust business models [10][12][14] Company Profiles - **Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)**: Offers a 5.1% yield supported by a diverse asset base and a 25-year history of dividend increases, with a strong balance sheet and operational efficiency [7][8][10] - **Chevron (CVX)**: Provides a 4.5% yield backed by a century of stability and a diversified global integrated model, maintaining or raising dividends for 90 years [11][12][10] - **Kinder Morgan (KMI)**: Features a 4.4% yield driven by contracted cash flows from its extensive energy infrastructure network, with expectations for continued dividend growth [13][14][10] Comparative Analysis - Each of the discussed companies offers a unique combination of yield, stability, and operational focus, allowing investors to align their choices with long-term income objectives [17][18]

​ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is one of the Cheap NYSE Stocks to Buy Now. Wall Street has a cautious outlook on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), mainly due to the supply-side risks facing the oil and liquids sector. On December 8, Arun Jayaram from J.P. Morgan lowered the firm’s price target on the stock from $112 to $102 and maintained a Buy rating. However, earlier on December 4, Charles Meade from Johnson Rice downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and also lowered the price target from $108 to $105. ​Analyst Ar ...

Core Viewpoint - Suncor Energy's 2026 corporate guidance emphasizes operational excellence and plans for significant shareholder returns through increased share buybacks, alongside robust production and refining targets [2][6][23]. Production Guidance - Total upstream production is projected to be between 840,000 to 870,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) in 2026, reflecting an increase of over 100,000 bbls/d compared to 2023 [2][5]. - Annual refining utilization is expected to average between 99% and 102%, indicating improved performance across the downstream portfolio [2][6]. Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to be approximately C$5.7 billion, aligning with targets set during the 2024 Investor Day [3][9]. - Key investments include in situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, and the Petro-Canada retail network optimization plan [3][6]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return 100% of excess funds to shareholders through share buybacks, increasing the monthly repurchase amount by 10% to C$275 million, aiming for a total of C$3.3 billion in 2026 [2][6]. Operational Performance - The company is focused on maintaining high operational performance, with a commitment to delivering superior shareholder value in 2026 and beyond [4][6]. - An update on 2025 operational results and performance relative to the 2024 Investor Day targets will be provided in early January 2026 [4][6].

By Promit Mukherjee OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada's economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the third quarter as crude oil exports and government spending boosted economic activity, data showed on Friday,​ even as business investments and household consumption disappointed due to the lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. Third-quarter ‌annualized gross domestic product grew 2.6%, Statistics Canada said, escaping what could have been a technical recession after a contraction in the previous ‌qua ...

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is highlighted as a strong long-term investment option, with a recent Buy rating and a price target of $117 set by Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott following the company's Q3 2025 earnings release [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported earnings per share of $1.38 and adjusted earnings per share of $1.61 for Q3 2025, indicating solid financial performance [1]. - ConocoPhillips raised its base dividend by 8%, aligning with its objective to achieve top-quartile dividend growth within the S&P 500 [2]. Operational Outlook - The company anticipates lower capital and operating costs in 2026, with expectations of flat to modest production growth [3]. - ConocoPhillips is projected to generate an estimated $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, with $1 billion expected each year from 2026 through 2028 [3]. Company Overview - ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company involved in the exploration, transportation, production, and marketing of natural gas, crude oil, and bitumen, operating across various geographical segments including Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia Pacific, and Other International [4].

Core Insights - The U.S. equity markets are currently experiencing volatility due to high valuations, sluggish economic signals, and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, particularly affecting growth and AI-linked stocks [1] Group 1: Stock Selection Strategy - Retail investors face challenges in stock selection amidst market volatility, making traditional stock-picking methods more relevant [2] - Sales growth is emphasized as a more reliable metric for evaluating stocks compared to earnings growth, as it reflects underlying demand and business model durability [3][10] - Sustained sales growth leads to predictable cash flows, allowing companies to reinvest and maintain stability without excessive borrowing [5] Group 2: Screening Parameters for Stocks - Selected stocks should have a 5-Year Historical Sales Growth (%) greater than the industry average and Cash Flow exceeding $500 million [6] - Additional criteria include a Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio lower than the industry average, indicating better value for revenue [7] - Positive revisions in sales estimates compared to the industry can trigger stock price increases [7] Group 3: Key Metrics for Evaluation - An operating margin greater than 5% over the last five years indicates effective cost control and sales growth outpacing costs [8] - A Return on Equity (ROE) greater than 5% ensures that sales growth translates into profits, indicating wise spending and profitability [9] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) are expected to outperform in various market conditions [9] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is projected to have a sales growth rate of 14.8% for fiscal 2026 and holds a Zacks Rank of 1 [11] - Globus Medical (GMED) anticipates a sales growth rate of 14.5% for 2025, also with a Zacks Rank of 1 [12] - Rockwell Automation (ROK) expects a sales increase of 5.8% in fiscal 2026 and has a Zacks Rank of 2 [13] - Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) forecasts a sales growth of 5.7% for 2025, currently holding a Zacks Rank of 1 [14] - VICI Properties anticipates a sales growth of 4.1% in 2025 and has a Zacks Rank of 2 [15]

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips (COP) reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, leading to a 4.2% increase in its stock price [1][8] - The company's oil-equivalent production exceeded forecasts, primarily driven by strong performance in its upstream operations [1][8] Upstream Business of ConocoPhillips - ConocoPhillips has a significant presence in the United States' upstream oil and natural gas sector, particularly in the Lower 48 regions, which include the Delaware Basin, Midland Basin, and Bakken [2] Q3 Production Performance - Total production averaged 2,399 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), an increase from 1,917 MBoe/d in the same quarter last year, and above the estimate of 2,342.9 MBoe/d [3] - Crude oil production rose to 1,146 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 957 MBbls/d year-over-year [3] Natural Gas and Other Production Metrics - Natural gas liquids production reached 436 MBbls/d, up from 310 MBbls/d a year ago, while bitumen production increased to 123 MBbls/d from 87 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas production was 4,167 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), higher than the previous year's 3,381 MMcf/d [4] Price Realization Trends - The average realized oil equivalent price fell to $46.44 per barrel from $54.18 a year ago, with the average realized crude oil price decreasing to $66.13 per barrel from $76.77 [5] - The average realized natural gas price was $4.28 per thousand cubic feet, down from $4.42, and natural gas liquids price decreased to $19.20 per barrel from $21.93 [6] Industry Context - Other energy majors, such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and Chevron Corporation (CVX), also reported earnings that exceeded expectations during the same earnings season [7]

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips (COP) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40, but down from $1.78 in the prior year [1][9] - Quarterly revenues reached $15.5 billion, up from $13.6 billion year-over-year, and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.6 billion [1][9] Production - Total production averaged 2,399 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBoe/d), an increase from 1,917 MBoe/d in the same quarter last year, and above the estimate of 2,343 MBoe/d [3][9] - Crude oil production rose to 1,146 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 957 MBbls/d year-over-year, also beating the estimate of 1,122.3 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas liquids production totaled 436 MBbls/d, up from 310 MBbls/d a year ago, surpassing the estimate of 358.1 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas production was 4,167 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), higher than 3,381 MMcf/d in the prior year [5] Realized Prices - The average realized oil equivalent price decreased to $46.44 per barrel from $54.18 a year ago [6] - The average realized crude oil price was $66.13 per barrel, down from $76.77 year-over-year, and below the projection of $67.07 per barrel [6] - The average realized natural gas price fell to $4.28 per thousand cubic feet from $4.42 in the previous year [6] - Realized natural gas liquids price decreased to $19.20 per barrel from $21.93 year-over-year [6] Expenses - Total expenses increased to $12.6 billion from $10.4 billion in the corresponding period of 2024, exceeding the projection of $11.5 billion [7] - The cost of purchased commodities rose to $5.9 billion from $4.8 billion a year ago [7] - Exploration costs slightly increased to $71 million from $70 million in the comparable period of 2024 [7] Balance Sheet & Capital Spending - As of September 30, 2025, ConocoPhillips had $5.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total long-term debt of $22.5 billion and short-term debt of $1.02 billion [10] - Capital expenditure and investments totaled $2.87 billion, with net cash provided by operating activities at $5.9 billion [10] Guidance - For Q4 2025, production is expected to be between 2.30 to 2.34 MBoe/d, with full-year production anticipated at 2.375 MMBoe/d, an increase from the previous guidance of 2.35-2.37 MMBoe/d [11] - The company reduced its full-year adjusted operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion from the previously stated $10.7-$10.9 billion [11] - Preliminary 2026 guidance indicates capital expenditure of $12 billion, which is $0.5 billion lower than the midpoint of its 2025 guidance, and adjusted operating costs for 2026 are expected to be $10.2 billion, suggesting a $0.4 billion decrease from 2025 guidance [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly corporate production of approximately 1.62 million BOEs per day, an increase of approximately 257,000 BOEs per day or up 19% from Q3 2024 levels [4][14] - Adjusted funds flow for Q3 2025 was approximately CAD 3.9 billion, with adjusted net earnings of CAD 1.8 billion [14][16] - Returns to shareholders in the quarter were CAD 1.5 billion, including CAD 1.2 billion in dividends and CAD 300 million in share repurchases [14][15] - The company reported a strong balance sheet with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.9 times and liquidity of over CAD 4.3 billion [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil sands mining and upgrading production averaged 581,136 bbl per day, an increase of approximately 83,500 bbl per day or 17% from Q3 2024 levels [7] - Thermal in situ operations averaged 274,752 bbl per day, slightly up from Q3 2024 levels, with operating costs averaging CAD 10.35 per barrel, a decrease of 2% [8] - Primary heavy crude oil production averaged 87,705 bbl per day, an increase of 14% from Q3 2024 levels, with operating costs averaging CAD 16.46 per barrel, a decrease of 12% [9] - North American light crude oil production averaged 180,100 bbl per day, an increase of 69% from Q3 2024 levels [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas production averaged approximately 2.66 BCF for the quarter, an increase of 30% from Q3 2024 levels [11] - Operating costs for North American natural gas averaged CAD 1.14 per MCF, a decrease of 7% from Q3 2024 levels [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on continuous improvement and operational efficiency, with a commitment to driving execution of growth opportunities and increasing shareholder value [12][16] - Canadian Natural has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, reflecting a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [15] - The company is exploring egress opportunities to enhance market access for its crude, particularly in light of new pipeline projects [28][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the current operational setup, indicating that all assets are performing as expected [48] - There is a cautious but positive outlook regarding engagement with the federal government on carbon competitiveness and pathways for future growth [39][40] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for Canadian heavy crude, supported by egress opportunities and stable pricing [55] Other Important Information - The company closed an asset swap with Shell Canada, enhancing its operational capabilities and production capacity [5][6] - The board approved a quarterly dividend of CAD 58.75 per common share, payable on January 6, 2026 [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential operational benefits from the Albion Oil Sands asset swap - Management highlighted the potential for equipment utilization and cost savings due to the proximity of the two mining assets [20] Question: Opportunities for egress capacity to Midcontinent or Gulf Coast refiners - Management is open to participating in projects that enhance egress capacity, which is crucial for maintaining strong pricing differentials [28] Question: Need for further consolidation in Western Canada gas - Management noted that while consolidation is occurring, the focus should be on increasing egress opportunities to unlock the basin's potential [33] Question: Implications of T block decommissioning on capital expenditures - Management indicated that capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with tax recoveries playing a significant role [44] Question: Operational setup and asset performance as the year ends - Management confirmed that all assets are performing as expected, with no significant issues to report [48] Question: Thoughts on M&A activity and capital allocation strategy - Management stated that while they look at M&A opportunities, there are no significant changes to their capital allocation strategy [54]