Joining us this morning, David Kelly, JP Morgan, asset management's chief global strategist, joins us here at Post9. Good to see you, David. Thanks for coming in.Um, you willing to look through the next couple of weeks of activity in terms of military action >> over the next few weeks. Yes, because I mean, if you there's no way this is not going to end with oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. Ultimately, the United States is going to have to come to some agreement with whoever's in charge in Iran to allow U ...

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a slight decline of 0.1% after a significant rebound driven by optimism regarding easing tensions between the US and Iran [1] - Oil prices initially retreated but then rebounded, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 2% to above $90 per barrel and Brent crude jumping back above $101 [2] Company News - Smithfield Foods' stock increased by 4% after the board raised its quarterly dividend by 25%, from 25 cents to 31.25 cents [5] - Gilead Sciences' stock edged higher following its agreement to acquire the privately held biotech company Ouro Medicines [5] - Jefferies Financial Group's stock rose 9% after reports that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is exploring a potential takeover [6] - Puig's stock jumped 8% after Estée Lauder confirmed plans to acquire the Spanish beauty group [8]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined as inflation readings indicated accelerating prices, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.4% and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.3% [1] - Wholesale inflation rose 0.7% month-over-month in February, exceeding economists' expectations of 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.4% also surpassed estimates [2][7][8] Oil Market - Brent crude futures increased to nearly $105 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded near $95 [4] - The rise in oil prices is influenced by geopolitical tensions, including attacks on Iranian energy facilities and the killing of a key Iranian official [11][12][13] Federal Reserve and Economic Projections - Wall Street anticipates the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations of maintaining interest rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range [5] - The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections will provide insights into expectations for inflation, the labor market, and the overall US economy [5] Corporate Earnings - Micron Technology is set to report quarterly results, while General Mills and Macy's are also reporting [6] - Macy's reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings with adjusted EPS of $1.84, surpassing the $1.54 estimate, and revenue of $7.6 billion, slightly above the $7.5 billion forecast [20][21] - Macy's same-store sales increased by 1.8%, outperforming the expected decline, with luxury business Bloomingdale's seeing nearly 10% growth [22][23] Debt Restructuring - New Fortress Energy shares rose 10% following a significant debt restructuring plan that reduces debt from $5.7 billion to $527.5 million [29]

Core Viewpoint - Brent crude oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel due to increased attacks by Iran on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the refusal of U.S. allies to support Trump's call for reopening the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 1 - Brent crude oil prices are currently above $100 per barrel [1] - Iran has intensified its attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East [1] - U.S. allies have declined to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz as requested by Trump [1]

🚨NEWS: TRUMP TO HOLD WHITE HOUSE NEWS CONFERENCE TODAYPresident Trump is set to hold a White House news conference today.He is expected to discuss ongoing developments in the Iran war, oil price pressures, and key market-moving data. https://t.co/0pX8WYpqRW ...

Group 1 - Brent crude prices have experienced nine consecutive days of gains, but uncertainty remains regarding future price movements due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a loss of approximately 8 million barrels per day in supply this month, totaling around 250 million barrels, indicating a significant reduction in available oil [2] - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is complicated by reports of attacks on shipping and the presence of mines, which could hinder the resumption of oil flows [3][4] Group 2 - There is a lack of clarity on the implementation of escort systems for ships in the region, with no imminent plans currently in place [4] - The ongoing conflict in the area must be addressed before establishing a secure convoy system for oil transportation [5] - Future energy security measures, such as escort programs, will depend on the resolution of the conflict and the Iranian response to these initiatives [5]

WE HAVE SOME BREAKING NEWS JUST MOMENTS AGO, IRAN'S NEW W SUPREME LEADER RELEASED HIS HE SAID THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ WILL REMAIN CLOSED AND IRAN WILL USE IT AS LEVERAGE. HE ALSO SAID THAT IRAN'S ATTACKS ON ITS HE SAID THAT ARAB NEIGHBORS WILL CONTINUE AND THAT AVENGING THE BLOOD OF YOUR MARTYRORS, IN HIS WORDS, WILL BE A TOP PRIORITY. REFERRING TO THAT SCHOOL THE SUPREME LEADER ALSO SUGGESTED OTHER FRONTS COULD BE ACTIVATED.THIS IS ACCORDING TO A TRANSLATION BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS. UNCLEAR WHAT HE MEANS AB ...

Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has reduced its economic growth outlook, now estimating a 25% chance of a recession within the next 12 months [2][3] Oil Price Impact - The primary risk to the U.S. economy is the price of oil, with Goldman’s oil team raising forecasts for Brent crude to an average of $98 for March and April, a 40% increase from the 2025 average [4] - A sustained 10% increase in oil prices is expected to raise the inflation rate by 0.2 percentage points and lower GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [5] Financial Conditions - Tighter financial conditions are also affecting the economy, with a 1 percentage point tightening in the financial conditions index resulting in a 1 point reduction in GDP growth over the following year; currently, the index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points [6] Geopolitical Risks - Higher geopolitical risks negatively impact hiring and capital expenditure, and when combined with oil price shocks, the economic impact is significantly magnified [7] Resilience Factors - The U.S. economy is less dependent on oil than in the 1970s, and the stock market, as indicated by the S&P 500, is only down 1% this year, suggesting no significant negative wealth effect [8] - The U.S. economy is also less sensitive to key chokepoints in international trade, such as the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, which account for less than 5% of global trade [8]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices and the size of the business in that region, which is a critical concern for global multinationals [1] Group 1 - Investors are interested in understanding the scale of the business in the Middle East, specifically whether it falls below certain thresholds such as sub-5 or sub-2 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased slightly in early European trading but remained below $90 per barrel as traders assessed a variety of mixed signals [1] Group 1 - Oil prices are currently experiencing upward movement, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - The price of oil is holding steady below the $90 per barrel mark, suggesting a resistance level that traders are monitoring closely [1] - Mixed signals in the market are influencing trader sentiment and decision-making regarding oil investments [1]