President Donald Trump has claimed that Venezuela’s interim authorities will be shipping several million barrels of sanctioned crude oil to the United States, after U.S. forces captured the country’s President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. Venezuela To Ship Over 50 Million Barrels of Crude OilIn a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump said that the Latin American nation will be “turning over” anywhere between 30 and 50 million barrels of “high quality, sanctioned oil” to the U.S.Trump said that the oil wil ...

The biggest surprise of 2026, so far, is not a tech breakthrough or a shift in interest rates—it is the sudden, explosive revival of the oil sector following the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. CVX stock is climbing. See the chart and price action here. Energy stocks ended 2025 as a beaten-down industry plagued by a global supply glut and the steepest annual price declines since the pandemic. Today, they’re reinvigorated after President Donald Trump pledged to “unlock” Venezuel ...

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Group 1 - Oil prices are on track for a modest weekly gain, with Brent crude down 0.2% to $67.28 per barrel and WTI down 0.4% to $62.99 per barrel, both benchmarks up only 0.5% this week [2][1] - The market sentiment is affected by a firmer U.S. dollar and ongoing uncertainty regarding Western sanctions against Russia [1][2] - Crude oil remains in a narrow trading range since early August, influenced by bearish fundamentals, including OPEC+'s accelerated output return [2]

Market Outlook & Price Trends - Commodity oil may be topping out at current levels, with a Wall Street view to fade the move [1][2] - The market anticipates a flat futures curve for oil, suggesting a peaking out [9][11] - The oil price implicitly real is really backwardated, if you would deflate it [10] Geopolitical Risks & Supply Disruptions - Potential for conflict involving Iran poses a risk, but Iran has historically been an unreliable oil supplier [2][4] - A missile war against tankers in the Gulf is not off the table, potentially causing a super spike in price [4][5] - Physical outages have impacted Israel, with the Leviathan platform shut down by 2 BCF (billion cubic feet) a day, affecting Egypt's gas supplies [6] Refining & Investment - Volatility in the oil market is not good for equities, making it hard to capitalize on oil price [8][9] - US E&Ps (Exploration and Production companies) cut back CapEx (Capital Expenditures) preemptively with oil in the $60s [12][13] - Oil companies will generate a cash return to shareholders that's undervalued in the market over time [15]

Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices - The market is fatigued by geopolitical risks, leading to a weaker price response than expected [2][3] - A major escalation, such as a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, could spike oil prices by $15 per barrel [8] - A peaceful resolution could lead to a downside correction in prices due to increased supply from OPEC plus [9] - Potential disruptions to energy export targets, like the Kharg Island terminal, could significantly increase prices [10][11] US Oil Market Dynamics - The US consumes over 20 million barrels of oil per day, producing 135 million barrels and importing the rest [4] - Gasoline prices in the US are globally priced and will be affected, with no real insulation from global events [6] - Brent crude is a marker of global risk, while US prices are more localized, potentially widening the spread [5] Sanctions and Iranian Oil Exports - Iran's oil exports have increased from 500,000 barrels per day four years ago to over 15 million barrels per day two years ago, despite sanctions [12] - Sanctions are not static, and oil will find a market, even at a discount [13] - The Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum Act (SHIP Act) aims to tighten sanctions on Iranian oil exports [14]

Market Impact of Geopolitical Events - Oil price spikes due to geopolitical events are typically short-lived, unless a major disruption like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz occurs [2] - Protracted geopolitical conflicts could lead to lower yields due to a flight to quality and a stronger dollar, but are generally not market-friendly [3] - A "flight to safety" is more accurate than a "flight to quality" in the current environment, with US Treasuries and the US dollar being the beneficiaries [4] - Market participants were previously concerned about a weak dollar and higher 10-year yields [5] Investment Opportunities - Past geopolitical events have often presented buying opportunities, depending on the market discount offered [6] - The current situation is viewed as a potential buying opportunity, barring a major escalation like World War II [6] - Companies involved in drone warfare and arsenal buildup, such as Northrup Grumman (NOC) and Kratos, may present investment opportunities [7][8] - The market dip is considered a buying opportunity [10][11] Market Indicators - The 10-year yield has decreased from 445 basis points to 433 basis points [5] - The VIX is not expected to remain at its current level of 21, and is likely to either increase significantly or gradually decline [10] - The dollar has only increased by a small amount over the last few trading days [5]