Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year due to an increase in supply leading to a market surplus, despite ongoing geopolitical risks that may cause volatility [1] Supply and Demand - A wave of supply is anticipated to create a surplus in the oil market this year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are expected to continue influencing market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market remains largely unaffected by the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela, as the impact of Venezuela's oil exports is minimal in the context of current supply levels [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Oil prices are trading sideways, indicating a stable market despite geopolitical events [1] - Near-term supply disruption risks are considered limited, contributing to the stability in oil prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Julius Baer projects that oil prices will remain in the high $50s for much of 2026, reflecting a cautious but stable outlook for the oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - EOG Resources' finance chief Ann Janssen indicated that oversupply and potentially increased production from Venezuela are driving oil prices down, a trend expected to continue for several more quarters [1] Industry Summary - The oil market is currently experiencing oversupply, which is contributing to declining prices [1] - Increased production from Venezuela is anticipated, further exacerbating the oversupply situation [1] - The downward trend in oil prices is projected to persist for several more quarters, indicating a challenging environment for oil producers [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) by 2.8% year-to-date, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Commodity prices show mixed performance, with gold increasing by 1.0% year-to-date, while Brent crude oil has decreased by 0.5% [3] - Key macroeconomic indicators from the US show a stable personal income growth of 0.4% month-on-month, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.6% [4] Index Performance - The HSI closed at 26,338, reflecting a 2.8% increase for the day and year-to-date [2] - The HSCEI and MSCI HK also showed positive movements, increasing by 2.9% and 2.4% respectively [2] - In contrast, the FTSE China A50 and CSI 300 experienced slight declines of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent crude oil is priced at US$61 per barrel, down 0.4% for the day and 0.5% year-to-date [3] - Gold is trading at US$4,365 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3] - Copper and aluminum prices have shown slight increases, with copper at US$12,470 per ton and aluminum at US$2,991 per ton [3] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - The China PMI Services index reported at 52.1, indicating expansion in the services sector [4] - The US PCE Price Index year-on-year stands at 2.8%, reflecting stable inflation [4] - The ISM Manufacturing index is slightly below consensus at 48.2, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] Key Events - Upcoming corporate access events include meetings with key figures in the consumer sector scheduled for January [5]