Online music revenue growth
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网易云音乐:2H25 revenue miss on soft non-subscription business; intact FY26 earnings growth outlook-20260213
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-13 02:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music's total revenue for FY25 declined by 2% YoY to RMB7.76 billion, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.91 billion. However, adjusted net profit increased by 68% YoY to RMB2.86 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - The company has slightly lowered its FY26 total revenue forecast by 1% due to a soft non-subscription business, but maintains a solid earnings growth outlook for FY26 [1][6]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$245.00, down from HK$330.00, based on a 23x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting a decline in sector valuation [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - FY25 total revenue: RMB7.76 billion, down 2% YoY; adjusted net profit: RMB2.86 billion, up 68% YoY [2]. - FY26 revenue forecast: RMB8.42 billion, expected to grow by 8.5% YoY; adjusted net profit forecast: RMB2.14 billion, expected to decline by 25.3% YoY [2][7]. - Gross margin for FY26 is projected at 37.0%, with an operating profit margin of 22.9% [2][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music services revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB3.0 billion in 2H25, while membership subscription revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB2.6 billion [6]. - Non-subscription music revenue declined by 7% YoY in 2H25, primarily due to a drop in digital album sales [6]. - Social entertainment revenue fell by 17% YoY to RMB905 million in 2H25, although it stabilized with a 5% HoH growth [6]. Margin Analysis - Overall gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 2.7 percentage points YoY but declined by 1.4 percentage points HoH to 35.0% in 2H25 [6]. - Adjusted operating margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 21.1% in 2H25, driven by operating leverage and effective expense control [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current price of NetEase Cloud Music is HK$165.40, with an upside potential of 48.1% to the target price of HK$245.00 [3]. - The company is currently trading at a P/E of 15x for FY26E, which is considered attractive compared to the target P/E of 23x [1][9].