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国盛证券:AIDC高景气下美国电缺口加剧 聚焦SOFC上游材料
智通财经网· 2025-11-24 08:47
Core Insights - The demand for AIDC is expected to grow significantly, driven by the "power shortage" in the US grid, which is boosting the Onsite Power market [1][2] - SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) is identified as the most promising Onsite Power solution due to its advantages over gas turbines, including sufficient capacity, rapid deployment, compact size, and high power density [3][4] - The materials used in SOFC are crucial, with the current industrialization primarily relying on ceramic support structures [4] Group 1: AIDC Demand and Market Dynamics - The US Department of Energy projects that electricity demand from data centers will increase 2-3 times from 2023 to 2028, reaching 325-580 TWh, which will raise its share of total US electricity demand from 6.7% to 12% [1] - The aging US power grid and lengthy construction timelines for new lines are causing delays in AIDC deployment, leading developers to consider self-built power sources [2] - By 2030, the proportion of self-built power data centers is expected to rise significantly from 13% in April 2024 to 30% [2] Group 2: SOFC Technology and Competitive Landscape - SOFC is becoming increasingly important as a primary power source rather than just a backup, with competition primarily between SOFC and gas turbines [3] - SOFC's advantages include rapid deployment and high power density, making it a viable solution for AIDC developers facing long delivery times from traditional suppliers [3] Group 3: SOFC Material Composition and Industrialization - SOFC units consist of four main components: cathode, electrolyte, anode, and interconnect, with the stack cost accounting for 65% of the total cost [4] - The current mainstream industrialization involves ceramic electrolyte supports, with Bloom Energy's fifth-generation technology achieving a power density of 0.7 W/cm² and a lifespan exceeding 80,000 hours [4] Group 4: Relevant Companies - Key players in the SOFC market include Bloom Energy (BE.US), and domestic companies such as Weichai Power (000338.SZ), Sanhuan Group (300408.SZ), Yishitong (688733.SH), Zhongzi Technology (688737.SH), and Fuan Energy (002911.SZ) [5]