证券研究报告·行业研究·机械设备 AIDC发电专题报告： 北美缺电逻辑持续演绎，相关投资线索再梳理 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：黄瑞 执业证书编号：S0600525070004 huangr@dwzq.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 9 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 2 ◆ 北美缺电现状是AI电力需求的非线性增长和电网基建老化之间的矛盾。需求端，美国AIDC项目激增导致美国电力需求非 线性增长。供给端，2025年总量供应短期基本满足需求，但长期来看，美国供给端面临稳定供应总量下滑&区域性缺电 困境。（1）稳定供应量下滑：电网普遍老化，停电频发，无法满足AIDC对100%可靠性发电要求；煤电即将迎来新一轮 退役高峰，风光发电不稳定、核能地热建设周期过长，仅能依靠天然气发电满足当前缺口；（2）区域性缺电：2024年超 过50%的数据中心选择建在德州、加州、弗吉尼亚州，区域供电压力较大。且美国电网运营分散，区域互联较差，如 2025年PJM电网多次因跨区功率失衡触发紧急控制。基于北美供需矛盾以及持续增 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 光伏ETF国泰（159864）跟踪的是光伏产业指数（931151），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及硅料、硅 片、电池片、组件及光伏设备等环节的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映光伏产业链相关上市公司证 券的整体表现。该指数聚焦于光伏行业，具有高成长性和技术驱动的特征。 国信证券指出，新能源装机增长是全球电力投资持续增长的共性原因，其乘数效应和逆向分布使得新能 源较传统能源对电力设备的需求具有更大弹性。海外市场在新能源装机、老旧设备替换、AIDC需求高 增及极端天气等多重因素推动下需求侧呈现爆发式增长，而供给侧面临劳动力、审批、产能等多重瓶 颈，2026年中国企业出海景气度有望持续超预期。国内方面，"十五五"期间电网投资预计再创新高， 2026年应重点关注特高压、智能电表和配网方向。特高压推进节奏此前略低于预期，而柔性直流应用正 迎来拐点；智能电表价格已持续探底，新标准执行有望带动价格复苏。此外，随着AI服务器功率提 升，AIDC供配电方式向更高效架构演进，预计2030年全球AIDC电力设备市场空间将超过4100亿元， 2026年国内外需求有望迎来放量拐点。 ...

兴业证券认为，公司产品用于大马力发动机、工程机械、农业机械、休闲娱乐船舶、乘用车、商用车、 航空、能源、医疗等多个行业，整体需求稳中向上，其中大马力发动机、机器人等细分场景景气度高并 具备较高利润率。AIDC拉升大马力发动机需求，公司为卡特彼勒、康明斯等提供大马力发动机的砂型 铸件缸体。 智通财经APP获悉，鹰普精密(01286)盘中涨超10%，高见7.66港元创历史新高。截至发稿，涨9.59%， 报7.54港元，成交额4683.63万港元。 东吴证券研报指出，北美缺电投资逐渐从燃气轮机向燃气内燃机、SOFC扩散，当前北美缺电量仍大于 各种技术总产能供应，因此该板块尚未到达选择技术路径的阶段，各类技术路径的相关投资机会都应重 视。燃气内燃机方面，建议关注鹰普精密等。 ...

鹰普精密(01286)盘中涨超10%，高见7.66港元创历史新高。截至发稿，涨9.59%，报7.54港元，成交额 4683.63万港元。 兴业证券认为，公司产品用于大马力发动机、工程机械、农业机械、休闲娱乐船舶、乘用车、商用车、 航空、能源、医疗等多个行业，整体需求稳中向上，其中大马力发动机、机器人等细分场景景气度高并 具备较高利润率。AIDC拉升大马力发动机需求，公司为卡特彼勒、康明斯等提供大马力发动机的砂型 铸件缸体。 东吴证券研报指出，北美缺电投资逐渐从燃气轮机向燃气内燃机、SOFC扩散，当前北美缺电量仍大于 各种技术总产能供应，因此该板块尚未到达选择技术路径的阶段，各类技术路径的相关投资机会都应重 视。燃气内燃机方面，建议关注鹰普精密等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is experiencing a strong start in 2026, with excavator sales in January reaching 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%. Domestic sales grew by 61.4%, while exports increased by 40.5% [8]. - The North American tech giants are expected to continue significant capital expenditures in 2026, which will likely sustain demand for AIDC infrastructure [8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a new recovery cycle in the equipment industry, driven by monetary and fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [8]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [3]. - For example, 汇川技术 is expected to have an EPS of 2.11 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 35.41, indicating strong growth potential [3]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the excavator market, with significant growth in both domestic and export sales, driven by infrastructure projects and demand in mining and forestry sectors [8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like 三一重工 (Sany Heavy Industry) and 徐工机械 (XCMG) due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including a 5.3% increase in the absolute performance of the machinery sector over the past month, indicating a positive trend [6]. - The machinery sector's total market capitalization is reported at 63,677.25 billion yuan, reflecting its significant role in the overall market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The space photovoltaic industry is progressing, with significant capital expenditures from major CSP manufacturers exceeding expectations [1] - The demand for energy storage is driven by ongoing electricity shortages in the U.S., highlighting the cost-effectiveness of leading companies [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of new directions such as space photovoltaics, AIDC, and robotics, which are catalyzing investment opportunities [14] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining traction, with SpaceX's application for 1 million satellites accepted by the FCC, indicating a robust future for space-based data centers [20] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association released cost analysis, indicating that the average full cost of mainstream photovoltaic products is expected to stabilize, providing support for price recovery [21] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in global photovoltaic installations, with annual additions projected between 725-870 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan [22] Energy Storage - Sunshine Power announced plans to establish a production base in Poland, aiming for 20 GW of inverter capacity and 12.5 GWh of energy storage systems [39] - The report notes a 45% year-on-year increase in EU battery storage capacity, with large-scale storage systems becoming the main growth driver [39] - January saw a significant increase in independent storage projects, with a total of 12.3 GW/36 GWh of bids, despite a year-on-year decline due to procurement timing [40] Lithium Batteries - The demand for lithium batteries continues to strengthen, with all segments showing a willingness to maintain prices, indicating ongoing profitability improvements [14] - The report recommends focusing on battery segments, particularly companies like CATL and EVE Energy, which are expected to perform well in the medium term [14] Wind Power - The report emphasizes the start of a new wind power cycle during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant opportunities in commercial aerospace and offshore wind projects [14] - Companies involved in wind turbine manufacturing and components are highlighted as key investment opportunities [14] Power Equipment - The domestic power grid's investment plan is projected at 5 trillion yuan, with significant improvements in pricing and demand driven by electricity shortages in the U.S. [14] - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in AI for power management and virtual power plants [14] New Directions - The report highlights the importance of developments in humanoid robotics and AIDC technology, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their potential in these sectors [14]

2026 年 02 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 王刚 S0350524020001 | | | | wangg06@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 吴亦辰 S0350125030017 | | | | wuyc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 国内储能景气持续，太空光伏需求进一步强化 ——电力设备行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/02/06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | 3.0% | -0.0% | ...

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, achieving the anticipated growth target, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The strategy report highlights that A-share earnings are stabilizing, driven by cost reductions and the new economy outpacing the old economy, with a projected 10% growth in A-share earnings for 2026 under neutral assumptions [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange's January 2026 report shows a significant increase in market activity, with a total of 292 listed companies and a total market value of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase in total market value [11] - In the electric power equipment sector, domestic demand is expected to remain strong, with a focus on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and smart meters, as the State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous five-year plan [14][15][17] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [18][19][21]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The A-share market is projected to see a 10% profit growth in 2026, driven by cost reductions and the rise of new economy sectors outpacing traditional sectors [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange saw a significant increase in trading activity in January 2026, with a total of 292 listed companies and a market capitalization of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase [11] - The electric power equipment industry is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology [14][15] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [19][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-voltage direct current and smart meter sectors, recommending companies like Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric for their growth potential [17] - Anticipate continued overseas expansion for Chinese companies in the electric power sector, suggesting attention to companies like Sifang Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy [17]

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，"十四五"期间，国内电力设备受益于网内外投资景气共振， 龙头企业加速出海。展望2026年，网内特高压、电表等方向有望修复反弹，配网升级空间广阔；海外供 需持续吃紧，国内企业出海突破有望超预期；同时，AIDC供配电技术变革催生新机遇，国内外需求有 望共振。行业整体在内外需驱动与技术迭代下前景向好。 2026年出口方向展望：海外供需持续吃紧，中国企业有望持续突破 新能源装机增长是全球电力投资持续增长的共性原因，乘数效应和逆向分布使得新能源较传统能源对电 力设备的需求具有更大弹性。此外，欧美国家还叠加老旧设备替换、AIDC需求高增、极端天气频发等 客观因素，新兴市场国家普遍面临用电量快速增长、电力系统薄弱、智能化水平低等突出问题。根据 IEA，16-22年全球电网年均投资约为3100亿美元，23-30年将提升至5000亿美元，30年接近8000亿美 元。2022年以来，海外主要公用事业企业持续上修25-28年电网资本开支计划，而海外供给侧持续面临 劳动力、审批、产能、供应链多重瓶颈。该行认为，2026年中国企业出海景气度有望持续超预期，在欧 美高端市场、高压高端产品方面有望实 ...