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The Trade Desk Slumps 68% in the Past Year: How to Approach the Stock?
ZACKS· 2026-01-08 14:16
Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk (TTD) has experienced a significant decline of 68.1% over the past year, contrasting sharply with the 58.5% growth in the Zacks Internet Services industry and gains of 25.9% and 19.5% in the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and S&P 500 composite, respectively [1][6][23] Company Performance - TTD's stock performance has lagged behind its peers, attributed to company-specific challenges such as rising costs, slowing revenue growth, macroeconomic volatility, and increased competition from major players like Amazon and independent ad-tech firms [5][6][23] - Despite the decline, TTD maintains a strong cash position of $1.4 billion with no debt, and has initiated a $500 million stock buyback program, indicating financial stability [6][17][18] Long-Term Growth Potential - TTD is positioned to benefit from the shift towards an open internet, where it serves as a buyer's platform, contrasting with walled-garden platforms that monetize their own content [7][8] - The transition to biddable connected TV (CTV) is gaining momentum, with expectations that it will become the default buying model, offering advertisers greater flexibility and control [8] - The rise of retail media networks is favorable for TTD, as retailers increasingly partner with the company to leverage retail data for precise targeting and attribution [9] Competitive Advantages - TTD's AI platforms, such as Kokai, enhance its competitive edge, with 85% of clients using it as their default experience, leading to improved performance metrics [12][14] - Initiatives like OpenPath and OpenAds strengthen TTD's ecosystem by improving transparency and efficiency in the advertising supply chain [15] Market Opportunities - Approximately 60% of TTD's total addressable market lies outside the United States, with international business currently representing about 13% of total revenues, indicating significant growth potential [16] - TTD's valuation is competitive, trading at a price/book multiple of 7.19X compared to the industry's 7.8X, suggesting potential for upside as the market stabilizes [19][22] Investment Outlook - TTD is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with the recent slump viewed as a reset in expectations rather than a fundamental issue with the business model, positioning it as a potential buying opportunity for investors [23][24]
Can Trade Desk's CTV Momentum Hold Off Rising Competition?
ZACKS· 2026-01-07 13:50
Core Insights - The Trade Desk's Connected TV (CTV) business is its largest and fastest-growing channel, accounting for approximately half of its revenues in Q3 [1] - The Trade Desk positions itself as a buyer's platform for the open internet, contrasting with walled-garden platforms like Meta and Google [1] - The transition towards biddable CTV is gaining momentum, with expectations that it will become the default buying model in the future [2] Company Strategy - The Trade Desk's strategy focuses on the open internet, where price discovery and competition thrive, despite advertisers allocating less budget to this area compared to consumer online time [1] - Technology investments, particularly in the AI-powered DSP experience Kokai, are central to its growth strategy, with 85% of clients using Kokai as their default experience [3] - Supply-side initiatives like OpenPath and OpenAds enhance the ecosystem by connecting advertisers directly to publishers, improving transparency and efficiency [4] Competitive Landscape - Amazon's expanding DSP business poses significant competition to The Trade Desk, alongside independent ad-tech companies like Magnite and PubMatic [5] - PubMatic's CTV revenues increased nearly 50% year over year in Q3 2025, driven by higher premium supply and the growth of small and mid-market advertisers [6] - Magnite's CTV business is also thriving, with live sports and partnerships with major publishers contributing to its growth [9][10] Financial Performance - The Trade Desk's shares have gained 1% in the past month, outperforming the Internet – Services industry's rise of 0.8% [11] - The forward price/earnings ratio for The Trade Desk is 18.88X, lower than the industry average of 28.67X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Trade Desk's earnings for 2025 has been revised upwards over the past 60 days [13]
The Trade Desk in 2025: 3 Takeaways Investors Should Know Before Entering 2026
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-13 16:43
Core Insights - The Trade Desk enters 2026 with a strong business foundation but faces increased scrutiny regarding future performance and competitive pressures [2][14] - The company has experienced a shift in competitive dynamics, particularly due to Amazon's growing influence in the digital advertising space [8][11] Company Performance - The Trade Desk has maintained a strong track record with over 30 consecutive quarters of revenue beats and customer retention above 95% [4][5] - However, the company reported its first revenue miss in years by the end of 2024, which altered investor sentiment despite a rebound in growth [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Amazon Ads surpassed $50 billion in annual revenue, reshaping the competitive landscape, especially with partnerships with Netflix, Disney, and Roku [8][9][10] - Google and Meta have also strengthened their ecosystems, leveraging AI-driven personalization and first-party data, which poses challenges for independent platforms like The Trade Desk [11] Strategic Positioning - The Trade Desk's commitment to the open internet remains its key advantage, focusing on neutrality and cross-platform reach [12] - However, the fragility of the open internet was highlighted in 2025, as more consumption shifts to streaming platforms, potentially limiting The Trade Desk's supply access [13] Future Outlook - The company heads into 2026 with a robust product roadmap and loyal customer base, but must navigate a more competitive environment and maintain execution excellence [14][16] - Investors are advised to approach 2026 with heightened expectations and a clearer understanding of the evolving landscape [16]
GoDaddy (NYSE:GDDY) FY Conference Transcript
2025-12-11 18:17
Summary of GoDaddy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GoDaddy - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focused on web services and domain registration Key Points and Arguments AI Product Initiatives - GoDaddy has launched **Airo.AI**, a new platform currently in beta, aimed at enhancing customer engagement through AI-driven tools [3][4] - The platform features **agentic agents** designed to assist various customer types, from sole entrepreneurs to professionals, in achieving their business goals quickly and efficiently [5][6] - Early engagement metrics indicate that customers are naturally gravitating towards Airo.AI without any traffic-driving efforts from GoDaddy [3][4] Customer-Centric Approach - The focus remains on understanding the **Jobs to be Done** by customers, ensuring that the tools provided meet their specific needs [10][19] - GoDaddy emphasizes a **frictionless experience** for micro and small businesses, allowing them to manage their operations without needing technical expertise [13][18] - The company aims to guide customers through their journey by suggesting the **next best actions** based on their specific business needs [19][20] Monetization Strategy - GoDaddy has been in the AI market for two years, with expectations that Airo.AI will enhance average order sizes and customer retention [20][21] - The company is exploring both **indirect and direct monetization** strategies, including potential paywalls for premium services [23][24] - Historical data suggests that customers spending over $500 have high retention rates, indicating a successful monetization path [34] Agent Name Service (ANS) - GoDaddy is developing **Agent Name Service (ANS)**, which aims to create a secure environment for agents to perform tasks on behalf of users, evolving from the traditional DNS infrastructure [24][26] - ANS will allow users to register agents that can perform tasks securely, ensuring that the information exchanged is trustworthy [26][28] Customer Trends and Market Outlook - Recent surveys indicate that micro and small businesses are optimistic about their revenue prospects, which bodes well for GoDaddy's product offerings [35][36] - The company has seen a return to positive customer growth, attributed to effective funnel strategies and the rollout of AI-assisted onboarding [32][34] Competitive Landscape - GoDaddy positions itself as a **one-stop shop** for web services, focusing on meeting the specific needs of its customer base rather than reacting to competitors [40][41] - The company believes that its long-standing experience and understanding of customer needs will continue to drive its success [41][42] Pricing and Bundling Strategy - GoDaddy's average customer spends between **$1,000 and $2,000** online, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of **$230**, indicating room for pricing adjustments [43] - The company employs a **value-based pricing** strategy, aiming to balance customer retention and product attachment to drive growth [44] Cost Management and Efficiency - GoDaddy focuses on expanding **Normalized EBITDA** and converting it to free cash flow, maintaining a strong balance sheet while investing in innovation [46][47] - The company leverages its historical data and technology stack to maintain a cost advantage over competitors [48] Capital Allocation - GoDaddy continues to prioritize share buybacks as a method to return value to shareholders while evaluating potential M&A opportunities that align with its strategic goals [50][51] Additional Important Insights - GoDaddy's customer base primarily consists of microbusinesses and sole entrepreneurs, who value the company's support and care organization [37][38] - The company is committed to using its internal resources and engineering talent to innovate and meet customer needs without relying heavily on external acquisitions [51]
2 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $50 Before 2026, According to Wall Street
The Motley Fool· 2025-11-24 08:55
Core Insights - Wall Street analysts believe The Trade Desk and Chipotle Mexican Grill are poised for a rebound in 2026 despite being among the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2025, with declines of 66% and 48% respectively [1][2] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk is the leading demand-side platform (DSP) for the open internet, which allows brands to plan, measure, and optimize digital advertising campaigns [3] - The company benefits from its independence, as it does not own media content or advertising inventory, reducing conflicts of interest and enhancing data sharing with publishers [4] - Concerns about competition from Amazon have negatively impacted the stock, despite The Trade Desk's dominance in connected TV advertising [5] - The Trade Desk's CEO asserts that Amazon is not a direct competitor in open internet advertising, emphasizing the value of the open internet [6] - Analysts project an average target price of $62.60 per share for The Trade Desk, indicating a 56% upside from its current price of $40 [6] - Despite recent stock declines, adjusted earnings are expected to grow at 15% annually through 2028, making the current valuation of 22 times earnings appear fair [7] - The Trade Desk could potentially generate returns exceeding 50% for shareholders in the next year if economic conditions remain stable [8] Chipotle Mexican Grill - Chipotle operates over 3,900 fast-casual restaurants and focuses on sourcing responsibly raised meats and organic produce, which has resonated well with consumers [9] - The company has faced challenges this year, with same-store sales and customer traffic declining in the first two quarters, although there was a slight recovery in the third quarter [10][11] - Analysts expect Chipotle's earnings to grow at 12% annually over the next three years, making its current valuation of 27 times earnings reasonable [13] - The recent rollback of tariffs on imported beef and avocados is anticipated to benefit Chipotle, presenting a buying opportunity for investors [12]
Can The Trade Desk Dominate the Open Internet With its AI Advantage?
ZACKS· 2025-11-12 13:46
Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is positioned as a strong player in the open Internet advertising space, leveraging AI and data transparency to enhance advertiser decision-making [1][8] - The demand for premium content is expected to drive growth in the open Internet, allowing TTD to capture a larger share of advertising budgets [2][8] - AI advancements are making the open Internet more effective, enabling advertisers to control their data and improve long-term success [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The open Internet is characterized by competition and transparency, contrasting with walled gardens like Google and Amazon that rely on closed inventory [1] - Digital ad supply consistently exceeds demand, creating a buyer's market that benefits TTD and the open Internet [2] - For the open Internet to outpace closed platforms, it must leverage competition and efficient supply chains [2] Company Strategy and Performance - TTD's flagship products, such as Kokai and Deal Desk, are enhancing operational efficiency and market share as the company aims for expansion into 2026 and beyond [4][8] - The company is focused on data-driven, targeted advertising on premium content to maintain competitiveness [4] - TTD's shares have seen a significant decline of 65.3% over the past year, contrasting with the growth of the Zacks Internet -Services industry and S&P 500 [7] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Magnite and Taboola are also making strides in the open Internet space, with Magnite reporting a 25% growth in CTV and Taboola expanding its performance advertising platform [5][6] - Magnite estimates that a 1% market share gain from increased competition could add approximately $50 million annually [5] Financial Metrics - TTD's forward price/earnings ratio stands at 36.6X, higher than the Internet Services industry's ratio of 26.88 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTD's earnings for 2025 has seen a slight increase over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [11]
The Trade Desk(TTD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-06 23:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $739 million, representing an 18% year-over-year growth, and a 22% growth when excluding political spend from the previous year [39] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was approximately $317 million, or about 43% of revenue [39] - Adjusted net income for Q3 was $221 million, or $0.45 per diluted share [41] - Free cash flow for Q3 was $155 million, with a strong cash and liquidity position of about $1.4 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the quarter [42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CTV (Connected TV) continues to be the largest and fastest-growing channel, representing around 50% of the business in Q3 [39] - Mobile accounted for a low 30% share, display for a low double-digit share, and audio for around 5% [39] - The company is seeing strong growth in retail media and significant adoption across various verticals [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America represented 87% of the business, while international markets accounted for about 13% [40] - Growth in international markets, particularly EMEA and APAC, is outpacing growth in North America [40] - Strong growth was noted in verticals such as medical health, automotive, and technology [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leading the open internet and enhancing operational efficiency through new leadership and structural changes [31][63] - Investments are being made in AI and product innovations to drive growth and improve client performance [38][39] - The company aims to capture a larger share of the $1 trillion advertising TAM as more dollars shift to programmatic [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management describes the current macro environment as a "tale of two cities," with some brands facing pressure from tariffs and inflation, while others are experiencing strong momentum [72] - The company is optimistic about the potential of the open internet and believes that independent DSPs will capture the majority of open internet spend [28] - The focus remains on building a more accountable and metrics-driven culture to support long-term growth [66] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased nearly $2 billion through its share repurchase program since the first authorization in 2023 [42] - New product features and upgrades are expected to significantly contribute to growth in the coming years [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Amazon as a competitor and the evolving competitive environment - Management acknowledges Amazon and Google as significant players but emphasizes that their focus is primarily on owned and operated inventory, while The Trade Desk focuses on decisioned, data-driven buying across the open internet [49][51] Question: Areas for impact in the next couple of years - The CFO highlights the importance of disciplined resource allocation and a metrics-driven approach to drive growth and ROI [54][55] Question: Broader advertising and macro environment trends for 2026 - Management notes strong momentum across the business but acknowledges pressures in certain sectors due to external factors like tariffs and inflation [72]
The Trade Desk(TTD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-06 23:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Trade Desk reported Q3 2025 revenue of $739 million, representing an 18% year-over-year growth. Excluding political spend from last year's Q3, revenue increased by approximately 22% [38][42] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was approximately $317 million, or about 43% of revenue [38] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $221 million, or $0.45 per diluted share [41] - Free cash flow was $155 million in Q3, with a strong cash and liquidity position of about $1.4 billion at the end of the quarter [42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Connected TV (CTV) remains the largest and fastest-growing channel, with video (including CTV) representing around 50% of the business in Q3 [38] - Mobile accounted for a low 30% share, while display represented a low double-digit share, and audio was around 5% [38] - The Trade Desk's focus on retail media is seeing strong adoption across verticals, contributing to overall growth [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America represented 87% of the business in Q3, while international markets accounted for about 13% [39] - Growth in international markets, particularly EMEA and APAC, is outpacing growth in North America [39] - Strong growth was noted in verticals such as medical health, automotive, and technology [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leading the open internet and enhancing operational efficiency through new leadership and structural changes [31][36] - The Trade Desk is investing in AI and automation to improve platform capabilities and drive productivity [18][63] - The company aims to capture a larger share of the $1 trillion advertising total addressable market (TAM) as more dollars shift to programmatic [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the potential of the open internet and the advantages of an objective platform [28] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by innovations in AI and programmatic buying, particularly in CTV and retail media [43] - The Trade Desk is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving advertising landscape, with a focus on operational rigor and long-term growth [43] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased nearly $2 billion through its share repurchase program since the first authorization in 2023 [42] - The board of directors approved a new authorization of $500 million for share repurchases [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Amazon as a competitor and the evolving competitive environment - Jeff Green acknowledged Amazon and Google as significant players but emphasized that their advertising efforts primarily focus on owned and operated inventory, with little competition in the open internet space [47][51] Question: Areas for impact in the organization - Jeff Green highlighted the importance of new leadership and structural changes aimed at strengthening the company's foundation and improving operational efficiency [59][61] Question: Trends in the advertising and macro environment for 2026 - Management noted the growing importance of the open internet and the potential for increased value in an objective platform, with a focus on disciplined resource allocation and international growth [69]
The Trade Desk(TTD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-06 23:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Trade Desk reported Q3 2025 revenue of $739 million, representing an 18% year-over-year growth, and a 22% growth when excluding political spend from the previous year [40][41] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was approximately $317 million, or about 43% of revenue [40] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $221 million, or $0.45 per diluted share [42] - Free cash flow was $155 million in Q3, with a strong cash and liquidity position of about $1.4 billion at the end of the quarter [43] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Connected TV (CTV) remains the largest and fastest-growing channel, representing around 50% of the business in Q3 [40] - Mobile accounted for a low 30% share, display for a low double-digit share, and audio for around 5% [40] - The Trade Desk's focus on retail media is seeing rapid scaling and strong adoption across various verticals [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America represented 87% of the business, while international markets accounted for about 13% [41] - Growth in international markets, particularly EMEA and APAC, is outpacing growth in North America [41] - Strong growth was noted in verticals such as medical health, automotive, and technology [41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leading the open internet and enhancing operational efficiency through new leadership and structural changes [33][57] - Investments in AI and automation are aimed at improving campaign performance and operational productivity [19][58] - The Trade Desk is committed to building a more data-driven culture and enhancing client relationships through joint business plans (JBPs) [15][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the potential of the open internet and the shift towards programmatic advertising [30] - The company anticipates continued growth in CTV and audio channels, driven by premium content and authenticated audiences [40][41] - The Trade Desk expects Q4 revenue to be at least $840 million, with an estimated growth of approximately 18.5% year-over-year when excluding political ad spend [44] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased nearly $2 billion in stock since the beginning of its repurchase program, effectively offsetting dilution [43] - The introduction of new products and upgrades, such as Audience Unlimited and trading modes, is expected to drive future growth [28][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Amazon as a competitor - Management clarified that while Amazon is a significant player in advertising, their focus is primarily on owned and operated inventory, which differs from The Trade Desk's emphasis on the open internet [46][49] Question: Areas for impact as new CFO - The new CFO highlighted the importance of disciplined resource allocation and a metrics-driven approach to drive growth and efficiency [52][53] Question: Broader advertising trends for 2026 - Management noted that the open internet is gaining importance, and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through its restructuring efforts [62]
X @Nick Szabo
Nick Szabo· 2025-10-31 14:32
Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency - The Bitcoin community in 2025 may be influenced by economists, potentially limiting their understanding of the open internet's advantages for money [1] - Open systems involve interconnected changes, where actions have broader effects [2] - Bitcoin will always have security vulnerabilities [2] - Bitcoin aims to create a separate, decentralized system [2]