Open architecture in agency model
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台湾保险(KGI下调评级),印度保险(HDFC人寿),三井住友金融集团(Olive研讨会),日本国债圆桌会议
摩根大通· 2025-06-10 07:50
Investment Rating - KGI Financial (2883 TT) downgraded to Neutral [3][4] Core Insights - Taiwan Insurance sector is expected to receive regulatory support, but it may be insufficient to mitigate the damage already done to earnings and capital positions [3][7] - India Insurance sector shows stronger-than-expected ULIP sales growth of 19% YoY compared to industry APE growth of 14%, indicating positive near-term prospects for HDFC Life [3][8] - SMFG (8316 JP) remains Neutral despite a raised price target, with a forecasted total shareholder return (TSR) of 60% due to ongoing buybacks [3][13] Taiwan Insurance - Regulatory measures are anticipated to support life insurers in restoring FX reserves, but the impact on earnings and capital positions is likely to be detrimental [7] - KGI's FY25e EPS and DPS have been revised down by an average of 24% and 20% respectively, reflecting the challenges posed by currency fluctuations [7][8] - KGI's price target is set at NT$18.8, with a recommendation to buy on weakness if the stock falls below NT$15 [7] India Insurance - HDFC Life's APE growth was 19% YoY, driven by strong individual and group APE growth [8] - The upcoming Insurance Amendment Bill could allow for 100% FDI in the sector, although the open architecture model may face resistance from insurers [8] SMFG - Price target raised to Y4,180, with a forecast of Y300 billion in buybacks for FY25 [13][16] - SMFG's ROE is projected to remain below 10%, while Mizuho is expected to accelerate buybacks and achieve over 11% ROE [3][13]