As the market re-opens post escalation, the shape of the curve depends on how participants interpret the shock. If traders believe the disruption will be short-lived or largely symbolic, the front may spike while the back end remains anchored by long term supply expectations. Eventually, the front will soften and come back. That produces a sharp kink in the curve. If, on the other hand, the conflict threatens prolonged production losses or structural export constraints, deferred contracts can also move high ...