After several wild weeks of movement in diesel prices, at times rising far faster than any movement in crude prices would justify, the benchmark price used for most fuel surcharges fell after four weeks of increases. The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price declined 3.7 cents/gallon to $3.831/g. The one-week decline comes after a four-week stretch in which the price rose 24.8 cts/g to $3.868/g. The DOE/EIA price was effective Monday and posted Tuesday. ...

Core Insights - The surge in physical buying of silver in India due to the Diwali holiday has led to significant spot premiums, indicating a potential shift in the precious metals market dynamics towards supply and demand over paper trading [1] - Both gold and silver have seen spot prices rise over 150%, with recent backwardation suggesting a physical metals shortage [1] Industrial Reasons - Gold is increasingly used in medical applications such as pacemakers and imaging, while silver is valued for its electrical conductivity in various technologies [5][7] - The demand for solar panels and AI technologies is driving significant physical silver purchases, particularly from China and Saudi Arabia [7] Economic Reasons - Inflation under current economic policies has been a major driver for the bull run in gold and silver prices since 2022, with the US dollar losing significant purchasing power [9][10] Geopolitical Reasons - A global trend towards de-dollarization, led by BRICS nations, is contributing to increased accumulation of physical gold and silver [19] - Central banks are hoarding gold and silver at an accelerated rate, further impacting supply dynamics [19] Systemic Reasons - The paper silver market is significantly larger than the available physical silver, leading to concerns about the reliability of futures markets [21][24] - Current shortages are exacerbated by refinery capacity issues and increased hoarding at the sovereign level [21][24] ETFs to Consider - Various ETFs such as Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF, Sprott Physical Silver Trust, and SPDR Gold Trust are highlighted as potential investment vehicles that track the spot prices of silver and gold [2][3][26]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of backwardation in gold and silver markets, indicating potential market instability and concerns about the reliability of futures markets [4][5][8] - It highlights the historical context of currency debasement and its implications for gold as a store of value, suggesting that current economic conditions may lead to a revaluation of the US dollar [9][12][11] - The article identifies potential investment opportunities in physical gold and related ETFs, while cautioning against those focused on futures contracts due to increased risks [13][16] Backwardation and Market Dynamics - Backwardation occurs when spot prices exceed futures prices, signaling bullish sentiment for physical commodities but bearish sentiment for derivatives [4][6] - Recent backwardation in gold and silver markets is noted as a significant event, with gold entering backwardation for only the ninth time since 1972, raising concerns about future economic stability [7][8] - The article connects backwardation to broader economic issues, including inflation and currency debasement, which have led to increased demand for physical gold [5][12] Historical Context and Currency Debasement - Historical examples of currency debasement are provided, illustrating the long-term consequences of such actions on economies and currencies [10][11] - The article references the BRICS coalition's efforts towards de-dollarization, which may further impact the US dollar's status as a reserve currency [14] - It discusses the implications of central banks accumulating gold, surpassing their holdings of US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a shift in global monetary policy [14] Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that investors may find safer options in stocks and ETFs that hold or mine physical gold, as opposed to those dealing primarily with futures contracts [13][15] - Specific companies and ETFs are mentioned as potential investment vehicles, including Newmont Corporation, Barrick Mining Corp, and various gold ETFs [15] - The article emphasizes the importance of being cautious with ETFs that engage in futures trading due to heightened risks associated with market volatility [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered has shifted from a bullish to a bearish outlook on oil prices, cutting its 2026 and 2027 price forecasts by $15 per barrel due to significant changes in the forward curve [2] Group 1: Oil Price Outlook - The average price of Brent crude for 2025 has been raised to $68.50 per barrel from $61 per barrel, while the 2026 target has been reduced to $63.50 per barrel from $78 per barrel, and the 2027 price has been cut to $67 per barrel from $83 per barrel [2] - The futures curve is now in contango from early 2026 onwards, indicating expectations of rising prices or high storage costs [2] - Near-term weakness is anticipated due to negative sentiment driven by trade war uncertainties and oversupply fears, but a gradual increase in prices is expected in the long term [2] Group 2: U.S. Oil Production Dynamics - U.S. oil output has reached an all-time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, with production increasing by 133,000 barrels per day [1] - Analysts predict that U.S. shale output growth will be depressed by low prices, and if OPEC+ maintains its production levels, this could highlight tightness in the market [2] - Rising production costs in the U.S. shale sector are driven by resource depletion and the need to drill in more complex areas, with marginal costs expected to rise from approximately $70 per barrel to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s [3] Group 3: Economic Influences - The weakening global economic outlook is likely to lead to economic stimulus measures, including potential rate cuts in the U.S. and a response package from China [1] - Many U.S. oil producers require prices above $65 per barrel to profit from new drilling, a threshold that is increasing due to inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term despite current short-term weaknesses due to rising output from OPEC+ and other producers, alongside reduced demand from trade tensions [1][2]. Short-Term Weakness - Brent futures are trading around $62 per barrel, down over $15 from a year ago, with a forecasted surplus of 4 million barrels per day for 2026 [2]. - Executives from Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor predict oil prices will weaken further before recovering, estimating a price range of $62-66.50 per barrel in one year [3]. - Gunvor's CEO noted that prices are expected to decline slightly more due to rising OPEC production and increased spare capacity from Saudi Arabia and the UAE [3]. Price Predictions - Trafigura's head of oil suggested prices could dip into the $50s during the holiday season but warned against betting on prices falling below $50 [4]. - Vitol's CEO highlighted that while the market is focused on rising supplies, low inventories in the West and strong demand for refined products have kept the market in backwardation [4]. Medium-Term Outlook - TotalEnergies' CEO expressed a bullish outlook for the medium term, citing production declines and no peak in global oil demand [6]. - ExxonMobil's CEO warned that decline rates could reach 15% per year without investment in unconventional oil and gas fields [6]. - Saudi Aramco's CEO emphasized the need for long-term investments in supply to meet resilient demand [6].

Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - The entire 2026 WTI futures curve is trading below $60 per barrel, which is below breakeven levels for most new shale wells, raising concerns about a potential contango situation [1][5] - TotalEnergies CEO and Vitol's CEO warn that such low prices could lead to a reduction in U.S. shale output by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day next year, tightening supply as demand stabilizes [1] - Backwardation, previously a feature of the market, is now only extending until February 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] Group 2: Market Movements - US LNG developer Venture Global reached an arbitration settlement with China's Unipec, avoiding litigation over cargo delivery failures [3] - Strathcona Resources has abandoned its hostile takeover bid for MEG Energy, potentially facilitating a merger between MEG and Cenovus [3] - Chevron is nearing an exploration deal with the Greek government for deepwater blocks south of Crete, with surveying set to begin in 2026 [4] Group 3: Price Trends and Sentiment - The current market sentiment is negative, with hedge fund net length in WTI futures and options at 29,410 contracts, which is 15% of the level at the beginning of the year [5] - Resurgent US-China trade tensions and the reimposition of tariffs are negatively impacting oil sentiment, with ICE Brent prices at $62 per barrel seen as temporary before a potential decline [6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have declined due to uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade tensions and weaker fundamentals highlighted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1][5] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures fell by $1.01, or 1.6%, to $62.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude decreased by 1.6%, or 95 cents, to $58.54, both nearing five-month lows [1] - In the previous session, Brent settled 0.9% higher and U.S. WTI closed up 1% [2] Group 2: Trade Tensions and Economic Factors - Ongoing assessments of the Middle East peace process, attacks on oil installations in Ukraine and Russia, and potential trade war escalation between the U.S. and China are influencing investor sentiment [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated President Trump is committed to meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to address tariff threats and export controls, despite recent escalations in trade tensions [3] - Beijing announced sanctions against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, and both countries will impose additional port fees on shipping firms [4] Group 3: IEA and OPEC+ Reports - The IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth due to OPEC+ production increases but lowered its demand growth forecast amid a challenging economic backdrop [5] - OPEC+ indicated that the oil market's supply shortfall is expected to shrink by 2026 as planned output increases are implemented [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Brent oil futures 6-month spread is at its smallest premium since early May, while the WTI spread is at its narrowest since January 2024, indicating ample near-term supply [6] - Narrowing backwardation suggests that investors are earning less from selling oil in the spot market due to perceived sufficient near-term supply [6]

Core Insights - Silver's futures curve has entered deep backwardation, with the front-month contract trading $2.88 higher than later contracts, marking the steepest inversion since 1980 [1][15][24] - This backwardation signals significant changes in the market, indicating potential supply stress, surging demand for physical metal, or a breakdown in the usual price discovery process [2][19][20] Market Dynamics - The current backwardation is driven by strong industrial demand for silver in sectors like solar panels and electric vehicles, coupled with increased investment demand, leading to a double-sided squeeze on supply [9][10][11] - Lease rates for borrowing physical silver have surged dramatically, indicating growing stress in the market, with one-month lease rates spiking to 39% from below 1% earlier in the year [13][14] Implications of Backwardation - Persistent backwardation suggests that the physical market is now leading price discovery, shifting power away from paper markets dominated by speculative trading [26][27] - The current market conditions could lead to a significant revaluation of silver, with potential price targets between $100 and $400 per ounce based on historical patterns and technical analysis [40][42][47] Historical Context - Historical instances of silver entering backwardation have often preceded major price rallies, as seen in January 1980 and early 2011, where physical scarcity led to rapid price increases [32][35][39] - The current situation mirrors past events but is driven by more sustainable factors, including steady industrial demand and tightening mine supply [38][40] Future Outlook - If the backwardation persists, it could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle where rising spot prices and high lease rates force short sellers to cover their positions, further driving prices up [28][29] - The market is likely to seek a new equilibrium that reflects silver's true monetary value, potentially leading to a significant upward price adjustment [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - Predictions of an oil glut are emerging, but some analysts argue that demand remains strong, particularly with the upcoming winter heating season [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Between 6 million and 12 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude went unsold in the latest spot market cycle, indicating potential oversupply [2]. - A flatter futures curve for the Abu Dhabi Murban blend suggests weakened demand or oversupply, yet refiners expect Saudi Arabia to raise crude prices for Asia, indicating healthy demand [3]. - The backwardation for the November-December spread for crude was $1 per barrel at the end of September, contradicting predictions of an imminent glut [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts describe the current oil market as being in a "purgatory-like trading range," where OPEC aims to maintain prices that are profitable yet suppress US shale production [5]. - Vanda Insights suggests that the market is not currently experiencing a glut, and if China continues to stockpile, it could signal demand growth [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Russia's extension of curbs on fuel exports, including a ban on gasoline and reduced diesel exports, is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and may tighten global fuel supply [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].