Backwardation
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StanChart: Oil Market Rebalances as Oversupply Fears Fade Into 2026
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-06 01:00
The oil price rally has finally run out of steam, with oil prices declining for the first time in three days, with the selection of Kevin Warsh as the next U.S Federal Reserve chair (expected to be more dovish than Jerome Powell), the notable ratcheting down of rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran, a business-as-usual OPEC+ meeting and reduction in the U.S. tariff rates on India all acting against oil prices. However, the biggest catalyst was Iran’s revelation that it will hold talks with the United State ...
A-Mark Precious Metals(AMRK) - 2026 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-05 22:32
Gold.com (NasdaqGS:AMRK) Q2 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsCarrie Dixon - CFOGreg Roberts - CEOThor Gjerdrum - PresidentConference Call ParticipantsCriag Irwin - Director and Senior Research AnalystGreg Gibbs - Vice President and Senior Research AnalystMike Baker - Managing Director and Senior Research AnalystSy Jacobs - Equity Research AnalystThomas Forte - Director and Senior Consumer Internet AnalystTom Forte - Director and Senior Consumer Internet AnalystOperatorGoo ...
A-Mark Precious Metals(AMRK) - 2026 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-05 22:30
Gold.com (NasdaqGS:AMRK) Q2 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 04:30 PM ET Speaker2Good afternoon and welcome to Gold.com's conference call for the fiscal second quarter ended December 31st, 2025. My name is Paul, and I will be your operator this afternoon. Before this call, Gold.com issued its results for the fiscal second quarter 2026 in a press release, which is available in the investor relations section of the company's website at www.gold.com. You can find the link to the investor relations section ...
Bitcoin bounce fails, with price falling back to $77,000 while precious metals renew surge
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-03 15:34
Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of 2% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $77,100 after a previous rise of approximately 7% from lows near $74,000 [1] - Ether (ETH) is down 4.7%, trading at $2,260 [1] - The selloff in cryptocurrencies coincides with strong gains in gold and silver, indicating a rebound from previous price drops [1] Stock Performance - U.S. stocks, particularly AI-related companies, are declining, with notable drops in Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), and Microsoft (MSTR), all down by 3%-5% [2] - The largest publicly traded bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is also experiencing losses, down more than 2% [2] - Coinbase (COIN) and Bullish (BLSH) are similarly down by comparable amounts [2] Company-Specific Developments - Galaxy Digital (GLXY) shares have fallen over 12% following disappointing fourth-quarter results [3] - Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) has also seen a decline of 3.5% [3] - Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI infrastructure, such as TeraWulf (WULF), are seeing gains, with TeraWulf up 12% after acquiring two industrial sites that could double its power capacity to 2.8 gigawatts [4] - Cipher Mining (CIFR) shares increased by 4% after announcing plans to raise $2 billion in the junk bond market for its Black Pearl data center in Texas, which will provide 300 megawatts of capacity under a long-term lease with Amazon Web Services [4] Market Sentiment - Options flows indicate that traders are preparing for a short-lived bounce from weekend lows below $75,000, reflecting a lack of demand for upside exposure [5] - Heavy demand for near-term downside protection has led to a distortion in the options market, with short-dated volatility exceeding longer-dated contracts, a situation known as backwardation [6] - Analysts are monitoring when volatility stabilizes and the options curve normalizes back into contango as a potential signal for local lows [6]
Silver Bull Market May Have Faked Its Death - iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV)
Benzinga· 2026-02-02 18:51
Last Friday, the silver market experienced what appeared to be a historic collapse. Price smashed from the $118 area down to the low $70s in a matter of hours, wiping out weeks of gains in a single session.There was no war, no surprise interest-rate hike, no industrial demand shock. Just a sudden, violent move that left traders staring at their screens wondering what happened.Analysts from the Sirius Report summed it up as an impossibility."We called it a ‘10 sigma event,' which is organically an impossibil ...
Beyond the Commodity Label: Distinct Paths to Diversified Exposure
Etftrends· 2026-01-24 13:59
Key Takeaways In the world of commodity investing, category names can obscure critical strategy differences. Funds grouped under the same "broad commodities†label can behave very differently depending on how they allocate across sectors, manage risk, and navigate futures curves. Understanding those differences is essential, because they ultimately determine whether a portfolio captures diversification—or simply concentrates exposure in unexpected places. The WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity Strategy Fund (GCC) ...
Here’s everything investors need to know about the historic silver rally in 10 charts
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-17 13:30
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing a significant upward trend driven by a combination of industrial demand, speculative interest, and geopolitical factors, creating a "perfect storm" for higher prices [1][4][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is increasingly in demand for applications in solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, while supply is constrained due to China's export controls and a supply deficit of 230 million ounces in 2025 [2][18]. - The market is currently in backwardation, indicating that spot prices for silver are higher than futures prices, reflecting tight market conditions [7][8]. Market Behavior and Speculation - Speculative interest in silver has surged, with a notable increase in retail inflows into silver ETFs, reaching a record of $921.8 million recently [15][16]. - Futures traders are predominantly long on silver, with low short interest, indicating bullish sentiment in the market [20]. Price Movements and Historical Context - Silver prices have risen over 25% since the beginning of 2026, with some analysts predicting prices could exceed $100 per ounce [4][25]. - The recent price rally has been characterized by extreme volatility, with futures prices significantly above historical moving averages, reminiscent of past market events in the 1980s [24][25]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Escalating geopolitical concerns and heavy government debt loads in developed countries are contributing to the demand for silver as a hedge against economic instability [17]. - The migration of silver supplies from London to New York due to trade concerns has further tightened the market, impacting liquidity [10][11].
Silver Crushes Gold With 152% Rally—Here's What You Should Know About The Tight Supply Story And Backwardation - Aya Gold & Silver (OTC:AYASF), Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE)
Benzinga· 2025-12-30 07:24
Core Insights - Silver has experienced a remarkable rally of 152% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 1978, significantly outperforming gold, which is up 66.22% [1] - Both silver and gold reached record highs recently, with silver surpassing $82 per ounce before a subsequent decline of 14% [1] Market Drivers - Silver's rally is driven by its unique position as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, with strong demand from sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and advanced electronics [2][5] - The initial surge was influenced by economic policies and trade tensions, particularly those initiated by President Donald Trump, alongside a supply crunch due to increasing industrial demand [2] Supply Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face its seventh consecutive year of deficit by 2025, with a cumulative shortfall of nearly 800 million ounces since 2021, as mine output continues to decline [4] - The available inventory of freely traded silver has significantly decreased, making the market more sensitive to demand fluctuations, which could lead to substantial price increases with even minor demand upticks [4] Market Conditions - Silver has seen its best monthly performance since the late 1970s, gaining 33.16% since early December, attributed to tightening physical supplies and low inventories [6] - The market has entered a state of "backwardation," where spot prices exceed futures prices, indicating acute physical shortages [6][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices could test the $85–$100 per ounce range as structural deficits widen [8] - Investors are encouraged to consider exposure to silver through options like the iShares Silver Trust, which holds physical silver [9] Investment Opportunities - The surge in silver prices has not yet been fully reflected in the valuations of leading producers and junior miners, presenting potential investment opportunities [10] - Notable performers in the silver mining sector include: - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (+102.14% YTD) - Americas Gold And Silver Corp. (+452.04% YTD) - Coeur Mining Inc. (+195.32% YTD) - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (+181.46% YTD) [10]
Global Markets Navigate Hawkish RBA, Geopolitical Tensions, and Shifting Oil Dynamics
Stock Market News· 2025-12-09 10:08
Group 1: RBA's Hawkish Shift and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is adopting a more hawkish outlook due to recent economic data, with inflation figures exceeding forecasts and remaining above the RBA's target band [2][3] - Australia's latest inflation data shows a headline CPI increase to an annual rate of 3.8% and a trimmed mean of 3.3%, indicating "uncomfortably hot" inflation, particularly in housing and services [2] - October's household spending data revealed a 1.3% increase, the strongest monthly rise since January 2024, suggesting robust consumer activity and altering the narrative on Australia's economic caution [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Swaps markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point increase in the RBA cash rate to 3.85% by November of next year, reflecting heightened expectations for rate hikes [3] - The AUD/USD currency pair has shown a bullish bias in response to these developments, indicating potential upside as it approaches resistance levels [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - The global oil market is experiencing a trend of narrowing backwardation, particularly in WTI crude futures, suggesting ample near-term supply [6][7] - WTI crude futures for November delivery settled with a 47 cent premium over the May 2026 contract, marking the narrowest spread since January of the previous year [6] - Analysts attribute this narrowing to increased supply from OPEC+ and seasonal refinery maintenance in the U.S., which is impacting demand for immediate barrels [7] Group 4: Uber's Investment in Japan - A report from Nikkei indicates that Uber plans to invest $2 billion in Japan over a five-year period, although specific details regarding the investment focus or timeline are not available [9] - Historically, SoftBank Group Corp. has had significant dealings with Uber, including substantial investments, and recently announced a joint venture with OpenAI in Japan [9]
Silver Soars To Record Highs: It's Up 95% In 2025, The Best Year Since 1979 - Aya Gold & Silver (OTC:AYASF), Andean Precious Metals (OTC:ANPMF)
Benzinga· 2025-11-28 18:45
Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices surged over 5% to $56 per ounce, marking the strongest single-day rally in over a year, driven by tightening supplies and concerns of a global shortage [1] - Year-to-date, silver has gained 95%, on track for its best performance since 1979 [1] Group 2: Market Imbalances in China - Silver on-warrant inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9,361 kilograms to 531,211 kilograms, the lowest level since 2015 [3] - China's silver exports in October reached over 660 tonnes, a new all-time high, indicating a tight market [4] - Shanghai has entered backwardation, signaling immediate physical scarcity in the silver market [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - Growing expectations of monetary policy easing have contributed to silver's rally, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December 10 meeting [6] Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, silver has averaged a 2.12% gain in December, making it the third-strongest month of the year [7] - Silver closes December in positive territory 60% of the time, with the best returns occurring in 1997 and 2020, both around 17% [8] Group 5: Mining Stocks Performance - The rally in silver has reignited interest in mining equities, with the Global X Silver Miners ETF rising over 12% in just two days [9] - Notable gains among silver-focused miners include Aya Gold & Silver Inc. up 14.18%, Andean Precious Metals Corp. up 12.66%, and Discovery Silver Corp. up 12.39% [10]