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How I'm Trading Nvidia's Earnings Using My PFP System
Benzinga· 2025-05-29 18:49
Core Viewpoint - Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings that exceeded sales expectations but fell short on earnings per share, with positive forward guidance leading to a stock price increase of approximately $7, reaching around $141.35 [1] Group 1: Positioning - The options market shows a significant amount of call gamma compared to put gamma, indicating bullish sentiment, with NVDA up nearly 22% over the past year and 1,477% over the last five years [3] - The majority of option positions are concentrated between $130 and $150, with $140 identified as the top gamma strike (TGS) and $145 and $150 as top call strikes (TCS) [5] - A close above $140 would strengthen the bullish outlook, while a close below could weaken it, with $145 and $150 seen as potential upside targets if $140 is maintained [6] Group 2: Flows - Following the earnings report, institutional trading was robust, with significant call buying (~$281 million in notional deltas) and put selling (~$100 million in notional deltas), indicating a bullish outlook [7] - 57% of the option flows are set to expire on Friday, suggesting a mix of short-term and longer-dated trades, with expectations for continued bullish activity into the following week [8][9] Group 3: Price Action - After the earnings release, NVDA's price action showed an upward trend, nearing the implied move of $9, currently around $141.37 [10] - The corrective price action observed on Thursday suggests potential for further upside, with the $140 TGS holding firm during initial attempts [12] Group 4: Trading Strategy - A long iron condor strategy was employed in anticipation of a strong market response post-earnings, with expectations for directional flows over the next 2-3 weeks leading up to the June options expiration [13] - If a strong close is achieved, there may be plans to add a bull call spread for the June expiration while reducing exposure to bear put spreads, as volatility was previously underpriced [14]