Asia Insights Global Markets Research Rob Subbaraman - NSL rob.subbaraman@nomura.com +65 6433 6548 Economics - Asia ex-Japan 2026 Asia macro outlook: What investors think We polled the audience at our Singapore and Hong Kong seminars. We hosted our annual Asia Macro Outlook 2026 seminars in Singapore (4 December) and Hong Kong (8 December), where our team of economists and strategists presented their macro outlooks and top trade ideas for 2026 (see Asia Macro Outlook 2026 – Mind the gap , 3 December 2025). ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the inflation metrics in China, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for October 2023 Core Insights 1. **CPI Inflation**: - China's headline CPI inflation increased to +0.2% year-over-year (yoy) in October from -0.3% yoy in September, indicating a broad-based price rise in goods and services sectors [1][3] - Month-on-month, the CPI inflation rose to +3.3% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in October compared to -1.7% in September [3] 2. **Food Inflation**: - Year-over-year food inflation improved to -2.9% in October from -4.4% in September, driven by price increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [4] - Pork prices decreased by 16.0% yoy in October, a slight improvement from -17.0% in September [4] 3. **Non-Food Inflation**: - Non-food CPI inflation rose to +0.9% yoy in October from +0.7% in September, with broad-based increases across goods and services [5][7] - Energy price deflation eased, contributing to the overall increase in non-food inflation [5] 4. **PPI Inflation**: - Year-over-year PPI inflation rose to -2.1% in October from -2.3% in September, indicating a lessening of price declines in downstream sectors [9] - Month-on-month, PPI inflation fell to -0.9% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in October compared to 0.0% in September [9] 5. **Core CPI and Services Inflation**: - Core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to +1.2% yoy in October from +1.0% in September [8] - Services inflation increased to +0.8% yoy in October from +0.6% in September, with transportation services prices up by 0.3% yoy [8] Additional Important Insights - The improvements in CPI and PPI are primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year rather than a significant rise in spot prices [9] - The report suggests that the seasonal demand around the Golden Week may have influenced the price increases, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [1] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding China's inflation metrics for October 2023, highlighting both the improvements and the underlying factors influencing these changes.

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