Market Overview - On August 28, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a decline, with an improved trading atmosphere in the spot market compared to the previous day. The spot basis softened, and traders primarily engaged in negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories. The trading price range for next week's goods was between 4755 and 4810, with a basis of 20-30 under the 01 contract [1] Profitability - As of August 28, the PTA spot processing fee was around 220 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2511 and TA2601 contracts were 274 yuan/ton and 320 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 28, Dushan Energy was undergoing maintenance with a capacity of 2.5 million tons, and Sanfangxiang (600370) had 1.2 million tons offline. A new 3.2 million ton facility's second line was in production, with load factors currently at 70.4%, down by 2.5% [3] - Demand: As of August 28, polyester plant operations were fluctuating, with a load factor around 89.9%, down by 0.1%. The operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed a local decline, with texturing, weaving, and dyeing rates at 78% (down by 1%), 65% (down by 3%), and 72% (down by 0%), respectively. Although there was a slight increase in orders and shipments for certain fabric varieties, new orders have been weak recently, leading to a slowdown in shipments. Weaving factories are facing challenges with insufficient new orders and high finished goods inventory. Additionally, high temperatures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have affected worker attendance in weaving and dyeing factories, resulting in a temporary decline in downstream operating rates. Currently, downstream raw material procurement is mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with inventory levels at 10-15 days, and some reaching up to 2 months [3] Market Outlook - With persistently low processing margins, there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance for PTA facilities in August. The supply-demand situation for PTA is expected to improve compared to previous expectations for August and September. Although there are still expectations for a strong demand in September and October, the marginal decline in terminal load factors this week and the anticipated production cuts in some bottle chip factories limit the overall increase in polyester load factors. Additionally, the weak commodity market atmosphere has negatively impacted PTA's absolute prices. The strategy suggests monitoring support around 4750 and looking for low long opportunities, with a focus on rolling short positions in TA1-5 [4]

供应：截至7月24日，PTA负荷持稳至79.7%。 需求：截至7月24日，聚酯负荷小幅回落至88.7%附近（+0.4%）。江浙终端开工率加弹、织造回升，加 弹、织造、印染负荷分别为67%（+5%）、59%（+1%）、65%（-2%）。织造端订单有分化，个别针织 类企业订单氛围略有提升，但梭织整体感受偏弱。织造端整体销售氛围依旧偏弱为主，部分工厂开机提 升备货秋冬季内销品。在商品上涨氛围叠加涤丝相对低价，下游投机性备货增加。目前备货少的在10- 15天附近，高的1个月附近，个别甚至1.5-2个月偏上。 【行情展望】 目前PTA负荷维持在8成附近，不过低加工费下8月PTA装置检修增加，且受国内宏观情绪带动，终端低 位有所补库，聚酯工厂库存压力有所缓解，PTA供需较预期好转。叠加国内商品市场情绪偏强，短期 PTA或震荡偏强。策略上，TA关注4900-5000压力，单边观望；TA9-1滚动反套操作；PTA盘面加工费低 位做扩。 【现货方面】 7月24日，PTA期货震荡上涨，宏观氛围偏暖，另外低加工差下PTA装置检修有所增加，市场询盘气氛 略有改善，个别主流供应商有出货，目前现货基差偏弱。7月货主流在09平水有成交，个 ...