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Here's Why Robinhood Stock Is a Buy Before July 30
The Motley Foolยท 2025-07-20 12:30
Core Viewpoint - Robinhood's stock has experienced a significant increase of over 350% in the past year, driven by rising stock and crypto prices, which have attracted retail investors back to its platform and boosted trading volumes [1] Group 1: Company Growth - Robinhood has rapidly expanded its customer base, more than doubling its funded customers from 2020 to 2024, with assets under custody (AUC) tripling during the same period [3][4] - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.5% in revenue despite a slowdown in 2022 due to rising interest rates [3] - As of Q1 2025, funded customers increased by 8% year over year to 25.8 million, and total platform assets surged 70% to $221 billion [4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The scrutiny from the SEC regarding Robinhood's payment for order flow (PFOF) model has lessened, as the proposed regulations against PFOF trades were withdrawn by the new SEC chairman, Paul Atkins [8][7] Group 3: Subscription Growth - Robinhood's premium Gold tier has seen a 90% year-over-year increase in subscribers, reaching 3.2 million, with subscription revenue rising 65% to $38 million [10][9] - Although subscription revenue only accounted for 4% of total revenue, it represents a potential diversification away from transaction-based revenues [10] Group 4: Ecosystem Expansion - The company has broadened its ecosystem to include more crypto trading, options trading, and card-based banking services, along with AI-powered portfolio management tools [11] - Recent additions include tokenized versions of U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and ETFs, as well as private startups like OpenAI and SpaceX, providing indirect exposure to these companies [12] Group 5: Margin Improvement - Robinhood's gross margin improved from 88% in 2020 to 94.4% in 2024, while adjusted EBITDA margin increased from 2.3% to 48.4% during the same period [13][14] - This improvement is attributed to reduced stock-based compensation expenses, growth in higher-margin subscription revenues, and a higher mix of revenues from crypto and options trades [14] Group 6: Valuation and Future Growth - Analysts project Robinhood's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 18% from 2024 to 2027, with adjusted EBITDA rising at a CAGR of 23% [15] - Despite an enterprise value of $91.3 billion, the stock may be considered reasonable relative to its growth potential, especially in the context of a favorable market environment [16]