Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global oil market, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical risks affecting oil production and pricing. Key Points Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have fluctuated within a $7/bbl range, with Brent rebounding to the mid-$60s due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran and disruptions in Kazakhstan [2][9] - The market is expected to remain in a large surplus, with Brent prices projected to stay low in the near term [9][10] Supply and Demand Forecasts - The global oil market is projected to have a surplus of over 2Mb/d in 2026, with the IEA forecasting a surplus of 3.7Mb/d and the EIA at 2.8Mb/d [3][22] - Demand growth forecasts for 2026 vary: UBS estimates 1.4Mb/d, while the EIA revised down to 1.1Mb/d, and OPEC remains unchanged at 1.4Mb/d [29][33] - Non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to slow, with UBS raising its forecast to 0.7Mb/d for 2026, primarily driven by the US [37][66] Geopolitical Risks - Kazakhstan's oil output has been affected by disruptions, with potential outages reaching up to 1Mb/d due to issues at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields [60][65] - OPEC+ compliance remains a concern, with the potential for supply disruptions in Russia and other member countries impacting overall production [10][11][65] Price Scenarios - Upside scenarios for oil prices could arise from supply disruptions, particularly in Russia, potentially pushing Brent prices closer to $70/bbl [10] - Downside risks include resolutions to current supply disruptions, which could lower prices below $60/bbl, especially if a recession occurs [11] Production Adjustments - OPEC+ output in December decreased by 40kb/d, with significant reductions from Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, despite a rebound in Russian output [5][92] - The unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts is expected to resume in April 2026, with a planned increase of 137kb/d per month [97] Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that oil demand may peak around 2030, with a plateau expected rather than a sharp decline thereafter [69] - The impact of electric vehicles (EVs) is anticipated to gradually reduce gasoline demand, with a significant shift expected by 2030 [75] Conclusion - The global oil market is characterized by a significant surplus, mixed demand forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties that could influence both supply and pricing dynamics in the near to medium term [60][62]

Core Viewpoint - The world will continue to require significant amounts of crude oil longer than previously expected due to slower adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles [1][2]. Energy Sector Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects daily oil consumption will rise from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2022 to 113 million by 2040, extending the timeline for reaching "peak oil" to 2040 from 2035 [2]. - The International Energy Agency has also adjusted its peak oil forecast to 2050, indicating a sustained demand for oil and natural gas as primary energy sources for the next 25 years [4]. Implications for Stocks - The extended demand for crude oil is expected to positively impact energy stocks, with Berkshire Hathaway positioned to benefit significantly due to its investments in oil and gas companies [3][6]. - Berkshire Hathaway holds substantial stakes in Occidental Petroleum and Chevron, valued at over $11 billion and nearly $19 billion respectively, which together represent about 10% of its publicly traded stock portfolio [9]. Berkshire Hathaway's Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway operates as a hybrid investment vehicle, combining elements of a mutual fund and private equity, while also benefiting from a reliable cash flow from its insurance operations [8]. - The company’s energy-related subsidiaries, including natural gas pipelines and other energy services, contribute over $1 billion annually to its operating income, enhancing its exposure to the energy sector without the volatility typically associated with direct investments [11][12]. Market Dynamics - Despite the expected growth in oil consumption, Goldman Sachs anticipates a decline in WTI crude prices to an average of $53 per barrel next year due to increased supply [15]. - The profitability of Berkshire's energy-related operations is less affected by fluctuations in oil prices, providing a stable investment avenue in the energy sector [16].

Core Insights - The key international agency forecasts that oil and gas consumption will continue to grow through 2050, indicating a significant shift in energy demand expectations [1] Group 1: Energy Demand Forecast - The current trajectory suggests that energy demand for oil and gas will increase, contrary to previous expectations regarding electric vehicle adoption [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil has not yet reached its peak according to Pedro de Noronha, founder of Noster Capital LLP, at the Sohn Monaco Conference [1] Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The oil market is still on an upward trajectory and has not peaked [1] - Even with a decline in oil prices, shipping stocks in the Gulf region are expected to outperform the market [1] Group 2: Shipping Industry Potential - The shipping services industry in the Gulf region has the potential for a 150% growth [1] - The shipping sector in the Gulf region is currently in a recovery phase [1]