Monica Guarez, head of US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and joins us now. Monica, welcome. Obviously, listen, uh, SNAP food benefits, lack of paychecks, airports, everything else, that's that's all real world impact, but I've got to imagine that Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's clients are asking about this.When or how much will it matter, and where, how are you answering them. I mean, we're seeing it actually start to show up when we're thinking about those concerns, right. Our clients are a ...

Turning now to the economy. Today would have been the day we got September personal income and spending data, which includes the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, but this week's earnings reports have given us some clues on the pressure consumers are facing, especially the younger population. Chipotle saw a broad pull back in all income cohorts, but the company said the 25 to 35year-old group particularly is challenged.The stock got punished, losing nearly a quarter of its value this week. And our n ...

Inflation Trends - The PC price index for August increased by 03%/03 percentage point, resulting in a year-over-year rate of 27% [1] - The core rate is 02%/02 percentage point, leading to a rate of 29% [1] - The inflation picture is not improving [1] Consumer Behavior - Personal income increased by 04%/04 percentage point in August [2] - Personal spending was stronger than anticipated, increasing by 06%/06 percentage point, compared to the forecast of 05%/05 percentage point [2] - American consumers are maintaining their spending habits, supported by their incomes [2] - Wages and salaries increased by 03%/03 percentage point in August, a decrease from the 05%/05 percentage point gain in July [3][4] - Consumers are concerned about potential tariff increases and upcoming holidays, leading to increased spending [8] Economic Outlook - The economy might be stronger than expected [3] - Downside risks may be less prominent than previously anticipated [3] - Strong jobless claims data indicates a positive economic trend [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs on big trucks may affect business spending [5] - Tariffs on goods, especially prescription drugs, could negatively impact consumer confidence [5]

Let's talk about a tale of two economies. Uh we we talked about it uh in the Biden era where we kept talking about how the numbers uh looked so great for for the US economy compared to the rest of the world and yet a lot of people hurting uh in middle America, a lot of people hurting uh across the country. Uh and a lot of Americans pessimistic.That helped defeat Kla Harris. Uh how has that changed or are they still pessimistic. They're still pessimistic.And let me start with a poll that you guys referred to ...

Economic Indicators - Personal income rebounded, increasing by 0.3%, surpassing expectations, a notable improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Personal spending rose by 0.3%, slightly below expectations, but reversing a previous decline [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.1%, aligning with expectations [2] Inflation Analysis (PCE) - Month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly warmer than previous months, but not the highest reading of the year [3] - Year-over-year PCE increased by 2.8%, the highest reading of the year, equaling March 2024 levels [4] - Core month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, the warmest since February [4] - Year-over-year core PCE increased by 2.8%, also warmer than expected and the warmest since February [5] Employment Data - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter increased by 0.9%, slightly above expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected [6] - Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, specifically 1,946,000 [6] Market Reaction - Despite slightly hotter PCE numbers, the market did not climb aggressively [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately one basis point to 4.34%, but remained down almost three basis points for the session [7]

Personal income fell in May after a new Social Security program skewed the data. https://t.co/uC7Wg5zT2U ...

Income and Spending - Personal income decreased by 04% month-over-month, a notable shift from the strong performance throughout 2025 [1] - Spending also declined by 01% month-over-month, falling short of expectations [2] - Real spending experienced a decrease of 03%, contrasting with expectations of remaining near unchanged [3] Inflation Data - PCE increased by 01% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [4] - Year-over-year PCE stood at 23%, precisely as anticipated [4] - Core PCE rose by 02% month-over-month, exceeding expectations by 01% [5] - Core PCE year-over-year reached 27%, indicating a stickiness in inflation [5][6] Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decrease of approximately 12 basis points on the week, settling at 426% [7] - The 2-year Treasury yield saw a significant drop of nearly 20 basis points on the week, reaching 372-373% [7][8] - The report suggests that achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains challenging [7]

Economic Indicators - Personal income missed expectations month over month [1] - The economy has not been favorable for most Americans for an extended period [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The personal income miss could justify potential interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Pre-market futures are down, with the Dow down 90 points, S&P 500 down 16 points, and Nasdaq down 80 points, while bond yields are at +4.32% for the 10-year and +3.98% for the 2-year [1] - The monthly PCE report indicates that inflation is warming up, which is not what analysts were hoping for, especially with tariff measures expected next week [2] - Personal Income for February increased by 0.8%, exceeding expectations, while Personal Spending rose by 0.4%, indicating a positive consumer performance [3] Group 2 - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rate of 2.5%, both above the Fed's target of 2% but within a manageable range [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, both figures slightly above expectations, indicating a gradual rise in inflation [5] - Consumer Sentiment for March dropped to 57.9, the lowest in two and a half years, with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% from 4.3% [6] Group 3 - Upcoming Jobs Week will provide insights into the labor market, with various reports expected to clarify whether the market is weakening [7] - The previous Employment Situation report indicated 151K new jobs filled and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, suggesting a robust domestic workforce [8]