Governor Myron, thank you so much for sitting down with me. It is great to have you on the program. >> Thanks for having me.>> We've gotten a new reading this morning on private sector job growth and uh we're seeing that job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000. A lot of that job growth coming from larger companies as opposed to midsize and smaller companies. How are you looking at this report.Given that we don't have official government data, how is it informing your outlook for ...

I'm a little bit more concerned about the direction of inflation to be honest with you than I am employment. The Fed's got a much more difficult degree of landing because believe it or not, the Fed gets a weekly update of the ADP estimate. Most people don't understand that.So, the Fed's not flying blind when it comes to the labor market, right. Inflation's a little bit more difficult. They're probably going to be talking to the MIT Harvard billion uh prices project.and to get an idea of what's going on. The ...

But I keep hearing the sword recently, and that's for stagflation. And that's what we're digging into on today's stocks in translation. First, let's get our terms straight.Staglation here means three warning lights flashing at once. Weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Stagnation plus inflation.And some folks draw a line between capital S, the 1970s kind of stagflation, and the lowercase S when only parts show up. And since the pandemic, we've really only seen the lowercase kind. ...

🚨Fed’s go-to inflation gauge (PCE) just dropped. All numbers came in exactly as expected!Core PCE MoM:🔹Actual: 0.2%🔹Forecasted: 0.2%Core PCE YoY:🔹Actual: 2.9%🔹Forecasted: 2.9% ...

Year-over-year core PCE inflation coming in as expected, up by 2.9% in August, but uh obviously it's still pretty sticky. Joining us right now on the implications for the Fed with all of this is Loretta Mester. She is former Cleveland Fed president and a junct professor now at the University of Pennsylvania.And Loretta, what do you think of these numbers. Maybe not hotter than expected, but but sticky nonetheless. Yeah, it was another month of stickiness and that isn't really what the Fed wants to see.I mea ...

The U.S. reported the August 2025 Core PCE Price Index year-over-year at 2.9%, matching market expectations. Overall PCE rose 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. ...

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Market Expectations - US PCE data is expected to be 27% [1] - Core PCE data is expected to be 29% [1] Market Impact - A bullish market is contingent on PCE and Core PCE data being lower than expected [1]

Market Overview - Futures are slightly lower at the start of the trading day, but there are lingering bullish tones in the market [1][5] - The market has experienced a significant run recently, indicating potential fatigue in pre-market futures [5] Earnings and Economic Data - Key earnings reports are expected this week, including Micron after the bell tomorrow and Costco on Thursday [2] - Important economic data will be released, including PMIs, durable goods, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and personal income and outlays [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - A steady flow of Federal Reserve speakers is anticipated this week, discussing recent interest rate decisions and economic outlooks [4][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is currently around 91.9%, with market expectations heavily influenced by upcoming economic data [12][14] Inflation and Labor Market - The consensus for the year-over-year PCE inflation rate is expected to tick up slightly to between 2.6% and 2.7%, while the core PCE is projected to remain flat at around 2.9% [13] - Ongoing labor market data will be crucial for future discussions on interest rates, with more job-related data expected in early October [14] Gold and Risk Sentiment - Gold prices are rising, attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market and a weaker dollar [6][7] - The VIX is higher, indicating increased market volatility, while yields on 10-year notes have drifted lower [8][9]

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