Inflation Trends - The PC price index for August increased by 03%/03 percentage point, resulting in a year-over-year rate of 27% [1] - The core rate is 02%/02 percentage point, leading to a rate of 29% [1] - The inflation picture is not improving [1] Consumer Behavior - Personal income increased by 04%/04 percentage point in August [2] - Personal spending was stronger than anticipated, increasing by 06%/06 percentage point, compared to the forecast of 05%/05 percentage point [2] - American consumers are maintaining their spending habits, supported by their incomes [2] - Wages and salaries increased by 03%/03 percentage point in August, a decrease from the 05%/05 percentage point gain in July [3][4] - Consumers are concerned about potential tariff increases and upcoming holidays, leading to increased spending [8] Economic Outlook - The economy might be stronger than expected [3] - Downside risks may be less prominent than previously anticipated [3] - Strong jobless claims data indicates a positive economic trend [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs on big trucks may affect business spending [5] - Tariffs on goods, especially prescription drugs, could negatively impact consumer confidence [5]

the Fed and how the Fed has underscored labor. And here we go. The income, spending, and PCE numbers should be hitting the wires here.These are August numbers. Some of the Fed's favorite inflation gauges. And of course, I'll have to tap dance a bit as I don't see some of these numbers.But just as a preview, we're expecting up 3/10 on headline. And here it comes. Comes in a smidge hotter.Up 4/10 instead of up 3/10. Exactly the same at least up to this point until I see revisions equals last month. So 4/10 ba ...

Economic Indicators - Personal income rebounded, increasing by 0.3%, surpassing expectations, a notable improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Personal spending rose by 0.3%, slightly below expectations, but reversing a previous decline [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.1%, aligning with expectations [2] Inflation Analysis (PCE) - Month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly warmer than previous months, but not the highest reading of the year [3] - Year-over-year PCE increased by 2.8%, the highest reading of the year, equaling March 2024 levels [4] - Core month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, the warmest since February [4] - Year-over-year core PCE increased by 2.8%, also warmer than expected and the warmest since February [5] Employment Data - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter increased by 0.9%, slightly above expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected [6] - Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, specifically 1,946,000 [6] Market Reaction - Despite slightly hotter PCE numbers, the market did not climb aggressively [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately one basis point to 4.34%, but remained down almost three basis points for the session [7]

Group 1 - Pre-market futures are down, with the Dow down 90 points, S&P 500 down 16 points, and Nasdaq down 80 points, while bond yields are at +4.32% for the 10-year and +3.98% for the 2-year [1] - The monthly PCE report indicates that inflation is warming up, which is not what analysts were hoping for, especially with tariff measures expected next week [2] - Personal Income for February increased by 0.8%, exceeding expectations, while Personal Spending rose by 0.4%, indicating a positive consumer performance [3] Group 2 - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rate of 2.5%, both above the Fed's target of 2% but within a manageable range [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, both figures slightly above expectations, indicating a gradual rise in inflation [5] - Consumer Sentiment for March dropped to 57.9, the lowest in two and a half years, with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% from 4.3% [6] Group 3 - Upcoming Jobs Week will provide insights into the labor market, with various reports expected to clarify whether the market is weakening [7] - The previous Employment Situation report indicated 151K new jobs filled and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, suggesting a robust domestic workforce [8]