Economic Outlook - The economy is considered very healthy, with potential for a significant boom next year, contingent on lower interest rates to facilitate investment spending, particularly in infrastructure for factory construction [6][7] - Non-financial corporate productivity growth has risen by 35% in the last four quarters [6] - Tariffs have not had the anticipated negative effects, and lower rates are needed to strengthen interest-sensitive sectors, as inflation is a lagging indicator [7][8] - The market reflects confidence in current policies, indicated by tight credit spreads and strong performance in both bond and equity markets [17] Fiscal Policy & Investment - Full expensing for factories is permanent, which will spur a supply-side boom evident in GDP data, with further acceleration expected next year [5] - Capex grew nearly 15% in real terms in the first half of the year, the largest increase since 2011-2012, excluding the pandemic period, which typically precedes hiring cycles and manufacturing job growth [10] - The bill providing 100% expensing for factories, with a normal shelf life of nearly 40 years, allows full expensing in year one, effective until 2028 [11] Labor Market & Wages - Real wages fell, impacting consumer sentiment [13] - Blue-collar workers have seen a 16% annualized increase through November of this year, marking one of the largest increases in the last 60 years at the start of a new administration [15] - Rising participation in the job market and new highs in the stock market contradict claims of economic misery [18] Tax & Revenue - Revenue share of GDP is over 17%, with spending being the primary concern [20] - Maintaining low taxes on labor and capital is crucial for fostering growth, creating goods, services, industries, and jobs [24] - If the economy grows at 3%, approximately $4 trillion more in revenue could be generated compared to CBO predictions, benefiting the long-term budget outlook [24] Deficit & Debt - Deficit numbers have improved under the current administration [28] - The tax cuts and jobs act effectively paid for itself, considering CBO scoring and revenue outcomes [28]

America’s policies will depend less on any written document than on rivalries in Donald Trump’s court—and on his varying moods. More than in past administrations, the president decides foreign policy https://t.co/2XCycdVPji ...

The new prime minister is pursuing policies as out of date as tired Hollywood franchise reboots https://t.co/h7O0sc7JGoIllustration: Ben Hickey https://t.co/os0vILq1vv ...

According to Poly Market, Gavin Newsome is the early favorite in the 2028 Democratic presidential race. So, who gets the nomination. Is any of this even valid, Saxs, in your mind, or is it just too much time between now and then.Well, I think it's valid in the sense that you're seeing Democrats react positively to what Newsome is doing. And what Newsome is doing is mirroring Trump's style in an attempt to give Democrats what they want, which is they want a Trump of their own. And despite Democrats figning o ...

Legal & Policy Impact - US judges will be restricted from issuing nationwide injunctions against Donald Trump's policies following the Supreme Court's decision [1] - The Supreme Court's 6-3 decision limits the power of judges to block presidential policies [1]