Bottom Line Up Front: In a single metaphor tucked into his 1994 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) (BRK.A) shareholder letter, then-CEO Warren Buffett explained a core idea that still separates long-term capital builders from short-term speculators: owning a piece of something extraordinary beats owning all of something mediocre. When Buffett wrote that it is “far better to own a significant portion of the Hope Diamond than 100% of a rhinestone,” he wasn’t just talking about portfolio construction: he was explainin ...

Core Viewpoint - Kawa Capital Management has completely liquidated its position in Gerdau S.A., selling 2,094,404 shares for an estimated value of $6.49 million, which significantly reduces its exposure to the company from 11.8% to 0% of its 13F AUM [2][3][4]. Company Overview - Gerdau S.A. is a leading steel producer in the Americas, offering a diverse range of steel products including semi-finished billets, long rolled products, special steels, flat products, and iron ore [9][10]. - The company operates a vertically integrated business model that includes steel production, mining, and distribution, generating revenue from direct sales, distributors, and a retail network across the Americas [9]. - Gerdau serves various sectors such as construction, manufacturing, automotive, agricultural, oil and gas, wind energy, and infrastructure, targeting both industrial clients and resellers [9][10]. Financial Performance - As of January 20, Gerdau's share price was $4.16, reflecting a 47% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 14% gain during the same period [4]. - The company reported a market capitalization of $8.60 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $13.10 billion and a net income of $564.19 million [5]. Recent Developments - The recent transaction by Kawa Capital represents a 15% change in reported 13F AUM, indicating a strategic shift in portfolio management [7]. - Gerdau has demonstrated strong performance due to pricing discipline, resilient North American demand, and a streamlined cost structure, which has positively impacted its financial results [11]. - The company has maintained steady cash generation and continued capital returns, including dividends and buybacks, even as steel markets have normalized [12].

Core Insights - The Pacer Trendpilot US Mid Cap ETF (PTMC) utilizes a rules-based trend-following methodology to manage its portfolio allocation among S&P MidCap 400 exposure and U.S. T-bills [1] Group 1: Portfolio Construction Methodology - The underlying index allocates to 100% S&P MidCap 400, a 50% S&P MidCap 400/50% 3-Month U.S. T-bill mix, or 100% 3-Month U.S. T-bills based on market conditions [1] - Exposure shifts to 100% equity when the S&P MidCap 400 Total Return Index closes above its 200-business-day simple moving average for five consecutive business days [1] - If the index closes below the 200-day average for five days, the allocation changes to a 50/50 mix [1] - An "extreme valuation" trigger occurs when the index closes 20% below its 200-day average, prompting a shift to a 50/50 allocation [1] - Changes in allocation become effective after the close on the first business day following a trigger, with the new position in effect on the second business day [1] - Signals for allocation adjustments are evaluated each business day, with no additional security selection or weighting beyond these exposures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF – 1 Yr April aims to provide U.S. large-cap equity exposure while ensuring full downside protection and a capped upside through a structured options strategy [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The ETF invests at least 80% of its net assets in European-style FLEX options on SPY, targeting a common April expiration [1] - The strategy includes purchasing puts to absorb 100% of reference-ETF losses for investors holding for the full period [1] - Upside participation is achieved through purchased call options, financed by writing call options that define the cap [1] Group 2: Portfolio Management - Residual cash is maintained in short-term USD instruments to meet collateral and liquidity needs [1] - At each April outcome reset, SPY-linked FLEX positions are rolled into a new one-year structure to keep exposures, cap, and protection aligned [1]

Core Insights - The ETF industry experienced significant growth in 2025, with nearly 800 new ETFs launched in the first three quarters, surpassing the total of 746 in 2024, indicating a robust expansion in the market [2] - Global ETF flows reached over $1.4 trillion this year, with US trading volumes nearing $60 trillion, highlighting the increasing popularity and utilization of ETFs among investors [2] Industry Trends - ETFs are evolving from mere portfolio building blocks to tools for managing taxes, hedging against inflation, and reducing risk, reflecting a shift in their application within investment strategies [3] - Buffered and defined outcome ETFs are expected to gain traction, particularly among pre-retirees and cautious investors, as they offer downside protection while providing better upside potential compared to cash or fixed income [4] Client Concerns - Inflation concerns are prompting advisors to incorporate ETF-based hedges such as gold, TIPS, and commodities into client portfolios, with gold serving as both crisis insurance and an inflation hedge [5] - Advisors are advised to conduct thorough due diligence on new ETF products, particularly those with complex structures, to ensure clients have realistic expectations regarding their performance and protective features [4]

Company Overview - Chord Energy Corporation produces and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids primarily from assets in the Williston Basin [9] - The company generates revenue through the exploration, development, and sale of hydrocarbons, leveraging operational expertise in upstream energy production [9] - It serves customers in the energy sector, including refiners, marketers, and utility companies seeking reliable oil and gas supply in North America [10] - Chord Energy's business model centers on efficient resource extraction and disciplined capital allocation to support long-term growth [10] Recent Developments - SIR Capital Management reported a complete exit from its holding in Chord Energy Corporation, selling all 377,585 shares for $36.57 million, which accounted for 3.26% of the fund's assets last quarter [2][3][7] - As of the latest filing, Chord Energy shares were priced at $90.91, down 20% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 15% in the same period [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $5.21 billion, with a revenue of $5.16 billion and a net income of $170.64 million for the trailing twelve months [5] Operational Performance - In the most recent quarter, Chord Energy delivered solid production above the midpoint of guidance, generating more than $575 million in adjusted EBITDA [11] - The company returned a meaningful share of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, indicating a liquid balance sheet [11] - Management continues to emphasize capital discipline and efficiency gains, suggesting that the fundamentals do not indicate a distressed asset [11] Market Context - The exit by SIR Capital Management suggests that the opportunity cost of staying invested in Chord Energy has grown too high, particularly in light of ongoing commodity volatility and the stock's struggle to regain momentum [12]

Company Overview - Chord Energy Corporation is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the Williston Basin, emphasizing efficient resource extraction and disciplined capital allocation for long-term growth [6][9] - As of the latest report, the company's market capitalization is $5.21 billion, with a revenue of $5.16 billion and a net income of $170.64 million over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] Recent Developments - SIR Capital Management has completely exited its position in Chord Energy Corporation, selling all 377,585 shares for a total of $36.57 million, which represented 3.26% of the fund's assets last quarter [2][10] - The stock price of Chord Energy Corporation is currently $90.91, reflecting a 20% decline over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of approximately 15% during the same period [3] Operational Performance - In the most recent quarter, Chord Energy delivered solid production above the midpoint of guidance, generating over $575 million in adjusted EBITDA and returning a significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [7][10] - Despite the stock's poor performance, the company's operational fundamentals remain strong, with management focusing on capital discipline and efficiency gains [10]

Company Overview - CompoSecure, Inc. specializes in high-security payment cards and digital asset storage solutions, utilizing advanced materials and proprietary technology [4][7] - The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Somerset, New Jersey [7] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, CompoSecure reported net sales of $120.9 million, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase [8] - The gross margin expanded to 59%, and pro forma adjusted EBITDA increased by 30% to $47.7 million [8] - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance and set targets for 2026, indicating expectations for continued double-digit growth [8] Market Position and Valuation - As of the latest report, CompoSecure has a market capitalization of $2.45 billion and a share price of $19.37, which has increased by 47% over the past year [3][4] - The company’s revenue for the trailing twelve months (TTM) stands at $160.68 million, with a net income of -$216.66 million [4] Recent Developments - Tikvah Management reduced its stake in CompoSecure by 280,000 shares, resulting in a position value decrease of approximately $9.31 million [2][3] - Following this sale, CompoSecure remains the third-largest holding in Tikvah's portfolio, representing 12.11% of its $338.71 million in reportable U.S. equity assets [2][3] Strategic Changes - CompoSecure is undergoing a business combination with Husky Technologies, valuing the combined entity at approximately $7.4 billion, which introduces new complexities and risks [9] - This deal is expected to be accretive but shifts the company's focus from a specialized security and payments manufacturer to a broader business model [9]

Core Insights - Defined outcome ETFs are projected to grow fivefold to $334 billion in AUM by 2030 from $69 billion today, driven by increasing demand from baby boomer clients and faster home-office approvals by broker/dealers [1][2] Group 1: Market Growth Potential - Cerulli estimates an annual growth rate of 29% to 35% for defined outcome ETFs over the next five years, which is at least double the projected growth in the broader ETF market [2] - The growth is attributed to the increasing interest from advisors and their clients, particularly as baby boomers approach retirement [2][4] Group 2: Investor Preferences - Defined outcome ETFs provide downside risk protection, typically covering the first 10% to 15% of losses, making them attractive to investors nearing retirement [3] - A survey indicated that as investors age, they prioritize downside protection over market outperformance, with 61% of investors aged 50-59 and 83% of those aged 70 and above expressing this preference [4] Group 3: Advisor Considerations - Advisors appreciate the liquidity and tax efficiency of defined outcome ETFs compared to structured notes and variable annuities [5] - The use of packaged investment products like model portfolios may enhance advisors' reliance on defined outcome ETFs, allowing for customization based on clients' risk tolerance and investment horizons [5][6] Group 4: Adoption Challenges - Despite increasing inquiries from pre-retirement investors, broker/dealers and wirehouses have not widely adopted defined outcome ETFs due to their complexity compared to traditional equity ETFs [7] - The variability of outcomes based on investment timing poses additional challenges for these channels in adapting to defined outcome ETFs [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fee-related earnings of $1.15 per share, total operating earnings of $1.55 per share, and adjusted net income of $1.41 per share, all of which are among the highest in its history as a public company [4][6] - Management fees reached $1.1 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with a healthy growth of 16% excluding catch-up fees [4][5] - Total transaction and monitoring fees were $328 million, while capital markets fees were strong at $276 million, driven by private equity and infrastructure activities [5][6] - Adjusted net income was $1.3 billion, or $1.41 per share, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The insurance segment reported operating earnings of $305 million, with a run rate around $250 million [6] - Strategic Holdings operating earnings were $58 million for the quarter, significantly ahead of the previous year [6] - Realized performance and investment income totaled $935 million within the asset management segment [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $43 billion in capital during Q3, marking the second-highest fundraising quarter in its history [8][9] - Inflows from Global Atlantic within credit were $15 billion, significantly up year-over-year [9] - The private equity and real asset business lines raised $16 billion of capital in the quarter [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is evolving its insurance business to extend the duration of its book and leverage its global investment management capabilities [12][14] - There is a focus on raising third-party capital to grow Global Atlantic in a capital-efficient manner [13][14] - The company aims to achieve $4.50+ in fee-related earnings per share and $7+ in after-tax adjusted net income per share by 2026 [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the fundraising momentum and the ability to achieve 2026 guidance despite potential challenges in the monetization environment [24][26] - The company noted that the current monetization environment is constructive, with expectations for continued strong performance [26][34] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a conservative approach to capital deployment and portfolio construction [29][30] Other Important Information - The company has over $1 billion in monetization activity, indicating a healthy portfolio maturity [7][8] - There is a focus on cash outcomes in segment reporting, with a conservative approach to recognizing earnings [19][20] - The company expects to take a one-time charge related to the Asia Private Equity Fund, which will impact net realized performance income in Q4 [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you summarize the international perspective regarding investor demand in Asia? - Management noted that investor demand for Asia continues to increase, with a broad understanding of opportunities in markets like Japan, India, and Southeast Asia [36][37] Question: What is the normalized level of ROE for the insurance business? - Management indicated that they expect to achieve an all-in ROE of over 20% as the insurance business matures and third-party capital contributions increase [42][55] Question: How do you see the capital markets business expanding from the GA side? - Management highlighted the potential for significant capital markets opportunities, estimating hundreds of millions of dollars annually as the business develops [60][61] Question: Can you elaborate on how changes in the insurance business enhance client partnerships? - Management emphasized that owning an insurance company provides a better understanding of client needs, allowing for improved service and competitive advantages [70]