December 15, 2025 02:04 PM GMT Energy Services & Equipment | North America 2026 Outlook: Navigating an Oil Surplus Into 2026, we see NAm nearing a bottom, growth in int'l onshore driven by OPEC activity & take a more muted view on offshore as efficiency gains moderate upside. Against a challenging oil backdrop, we generally prefer exposure to more defensive & unique revenue streams. HAL to Top Pick, NOV to EW. Key Takeaways With this report, Joe Laetsch assumes coverage of North America Energy Services & Eq ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Power** industry, highlighting significant trends in power consumption and generation in the country [1][2]. Key Insights on Power Consumption - **National power consumption** increased by **5.1% YoY** in the first ten months of 2025, up from **4.6%** in the previous months [3][9]. - In **October 2025**, power demand surged by **10.4% YoY**, with notable increases in various sectors: - **Primary sector**: +13.2% YoY - **Secondary sector**: +6.2% YoY - **Tertiary sector**: +17.1% YoY - **Residential demand**: +23.9% YoY [3][9]. Sector-Specific Growth Drivers - The **tertiary sector** growth was primarily driven by: - **Retail services**: +24.4% YoY - **IT services**: +21.0% YoY - The **accommodation and catering** sector also saw an increase of **18.4% YoY**, attributed to the strong National Day holiday [4][9]. - **Residential power consumption** growth was influenced by temperature variations, with regions like Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Shanghai experiencing significant increases of **66%**, **63%**, and **47%** YoY, respectively [4]. Power Generation Insights - Total power generation in **10M25** rose by **2.3% YoY** to **8,063 billion kWh**. - Renewable energy sources showed strong growth: - **Solar power generation**: +23.2% YoY - **Wind power generation**: +7.6% YoY - The share of wind and solar in the energy mix increased to **16%**, up from **14%** in the same period last year [5][9]. Capacity Expansion - China added **398 GW** of power capacity in **10M25**, marking a **42.4% YoY** increase, including: - **253 GW** from solar (up **39.5% YoY**) - **70 GW** from wind (up **52.9% YoY**) - **65 GW** from thermal sources (up **54.3% YoY**) [5][9]. Investment Trends - Investments in power generation capacity reached **Rmb722 billion**, a **0.7% YoY** increase, while investments in the power grid rose to **Rmb482 billion**, up **7.2% YoY** [9]. Analyst Ratings and Industry Outlook - The overall view of the **China Utilities** sector is considered **attractive**, with several companies rated positively, including: - **China Resources Power**: Overweight - **China Longyuan Power Group**: Overweight - **Huaneng Power International Inc.**: Equal-weight [7][59]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in the renewable energy sector, driven by government policies and increasing demand for cleaner energy sources [7][9]. - Analysts caution that while the growth is promising, investors should remain aware of potential risks associated with market fluctuations and regulatory changes [7][9].

Core Insights - NRG Energy has forecasted standalone core profit for the full year 2026 to exceed its updated range for 2025, driven by increasing power demand [1] - Following this announcement, the utility firm's shares rose by 1% in premarket trading [1] Company Summary - The forecasted profit increase is attributed to surging power demand, indicating a positive outlook for NRG Energy's financial performance [1] Industry Context - The rising power demand reflects broader trends in the energy sector, suggesting potential growth opportunities for utility companies [1]

Group 1 - Melius upgraded GE Vernova from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to $740 due to increasing global power demand and strong pricing power [1] - The stock has risen fivefold since its spin-off, with analysts noting that the backdrop for energy demand and pricing trends continues to strengthen [1] - Analysts forecasted an upside to earnings estimates over the next several years, with pricing power expected to become increasingly evident by 2028 [1] Group 2 - The $740 price target is based on 34 times the 2027 earnings estimate and 20 times the early 2028 forecast, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth trajectory [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Energisa, Equatorial, and Copel, while Cemig is rated as "Sell" [6][64][50]. Core Insights - The new power distribution opex methodology approved by the regulator aims to enhance efficiency sharing with consumers, impacting the fair equity values of the companies covered [7][21]. - Energisa and Equatorial are the most exposed to the new methodology, with estimated impacts of -9% and -8% on their fair equity values, respectively [2][8]. - Despite recent market rallies, the sector remains reasonably valued, with an average real spread of approximately 3.8% to Brazil's free risk bonds [3]. Summary by Sections New Opex Methodology - The new methodology includes annual updates to reference opex, a simplified benchmark model, and the application of the IPCA index for all variables [7][21]. - Cost outperformance sharing with consumers is now correlated to median sectoral efficiency, with limits set at 140%/60% for cost outperformance [21][28]. Company-Specific Adjustments - Energisa's fair equity value is adjusted down by -9% due to the new methodology and updated power demand forecasts, with a revised 2025E growth estimate of 0.5% YoY [49][50]. - Equatorial's fair equity value is adjusted down by -8%, with a similar revision in growth estimates to 0.5% YoY for 2025E [63][64]. - Copel is the least affected, with a -3% impact on fair equity value [2][8]. Market Demand and Forecasts - The report incorporates updated forecasts from Brazil's independent power system operator, indicating a decrease in power demand growth, with a -4% YoY drop noted in April and May 2025 [44][45]. - The overall demand forecast for 2025E has been revised down to -3.1% YoY from a previous estimate of +0.4% YoY [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The growing demand for energy in the U.S. presents significant opportunities for energy companies, particularly NextEra Energy, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [2][3][11] Company Overview - NextEra Energy operates the largest electric utility in the U.S., Florida Power & Light (FPL), and is a leader in clean energy through its NextEra Energy Resources segment, making it the world's largest producer of renewable energy from wind and solar [5][11] - The company has built more renewable energy-generation capacity than any other company in the past two decades, along with a significant gas-fired generation capacity [6][11] Financial Performance - NextEra Energy has achieved a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the past 20 years, contributing to a 10% CAGR in dividends during the same period [7] - The company's total returns have outperformed the S&P 500, with an annualized return of 15.7% compared to 10.2% for the index [7] Growth Potential - The U.S. is projected to need an additional 450 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity by 2030 to meet demand, with renewable energy, particularly solar, expected to play a crucial role due to its lower costs and rapid deployment capabilities [8][10] - FPL has installed over 7.9 GW of solar capacity and plans to deploy more than 17 GW of solar and over 7.6 GW of battery storage in the next decade [9] Investment Strategy - NextEra Energy plans to invest $120 billion over the next four years to maintain and expand energy infrastructure, which is expected to support adjusted EPS growth at the top end of its 6% to 8% annual target range through 2027 [10] - The company anticipates continuing to grow its dividend by around 10% annually, supported by the expected surge in power demand [10]