03 Feb 2026 11:18:42 ET │ 19 pages Vi e w p o i n t | China Diversified Utilities Higher Grid Capex Growth in 2026E; Lifting Solar & Wind Installations CITI'S TAKE PRC electricity demand growth in 2025 was +5.0% y/y, a deceleration of 1.8ppts from the previous year due to a warmer-than-usual winter in 1Q25. We expect electricity demand growth to accelerate to 6.5% y/y in 2026 based on a 1.3x multiple for annual electricity demand growth versus annual GDP growth, similar to those in 2020-24. Meanwhile, 2025 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **North America Energy Services & Equipment (ESE)** sector, with a particular emphasis on the outlook for 2026 and the dynamics of oil and gas markets [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Outlook**: North America is nearing a bottom in terms of oil prices, with international onshore growth driven by OPEC activity. However, offshore growth is expected to be muted due to moderating efficiency gains [1][5]. - **Earnings and Valuations**: The ESE sector has seen a rally of approximately **30%** since the lows post-Liberation Day, resulting in year-to-date gains of about **5%**. Despite this, earnings estimates have fallen, leading to higher EV/EBITDA multiples and tighter free cash flow yields, now aligning with historical median levels [4][15]. - **Spending Trends**: North American onshore spending is expected to remain constrained, while international activity is projected to be flat in 2026 before increasing in 2027, driven by OPEC+ activity and unconventional gas opportunities [5][10][26]. - **Offshore Activity**: The outlook for offshore spending is more cautious, particularly for deepwater projects, due to anticipated efficiency gains that will limit the need for additional rigs [9][10][26]. Key Themes for 2026 - **Power and Data Centers**: There is an emerging opportunity in power generation, with demand expected to grow at a **2.6% CAGR** through 2035, driven by data center growth and electrification. Companies like HAL and LBRT are positioned to provide power solutions directly to end-users [10][35][41]. - **Oil and Gas Price Forecasts**: Oil prices are expected to decline by approximately **20%** since the start of 2025, with a forecasted surplus of **~2 mb/d** in 2026, potentially reaching **~3 mb/d** in the first half of 2026. Brent prices are anticipated to drop to around **$60/bbl** before a recovery begins in mid-2027 [10][63][64]. - **Rig Counts and Efficiency**: The total US rig count has decreased by **~7%** since the beginning of 2025, with oil-directed rigs down by **~14%** and gas-focused activity up by **25%**. Efficiency improvements have led to a reduction in drilling days per well [77][80][86]. Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: HAL is identified as a top pick due to its exposure to the Middle East and power generation opportunities. The strategic partnership with VoltaGrid is highlighted as a key differentiator [14][54]. - **NOV Downgrade**: NOV has been downgraded to equal-weight due to its significant offshore capex exposure and less resilience in oil and gas production opex compared to peers [14][54]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a preference for stocks with defensive and unique revenue streams, favoring gas over oil-focused activities and spending tied to existing production [54][43]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report notes that oil capex represents only **~55%** of revenues for the covered companies, with significant contributions from gas capex and non-upstream markets, indicating a shift in revenue dynamics [45][50]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections for the North America Energy Services & Equipment sector as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the current market landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Power** industry, highlighting significant trends in power consumption and generation in the country [1][2]. Key Insights on Power Consumption - **National power consumption** increased by **5.1% YoY** in the first ten months of 2025, up from **4.6%** in the previous months [3][9]. - In **October 2025**, power demand surged by **10.4% YoY**, with notable increases in various sectors: - **Primary sector**: +13.2% YoY - **Secondary sector**: +6.2% YoY - **Tertiary sector**: +17.1% YoY - **Residential demand**: +23.9% YoY [3][9]. Sector-Specific Growth Drivers - The **tertiary sector** growth was primarily driven by: - **Retail services**: +24.4% YoY - **IT services**: +21.0% YoY - The **accommodation and catering** sector also saw an increase of **18.4% YoY**, attributed to the strong National Day holiday [4][9]. - **Residential power consumption** growth was influenced by temperature variations, with regions like Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Shanghai experiencing significant increases of **66%**, **63%**, and **47%** YoY, respectively [4]. Power Generation Insights - Total power generation in **10M25** rose by **2.3% YoY** to **8,063 billion kWh**. - Renewable energy sources showed strong growth: - **Solar power generation**: +23.2% YoY - **Wind power generation**: +7.6% YoY - The share of wind and solar in the energy mix increased to **16%**, up from **14%** in the same period last year [5][9]. Capacity Expansion - China added **398 GW** of power capacity in **10M25**, marking a **42.4% YoY** increase, including: - **253 GW** from solar (up **39.5% YoY**) - **70 GW** from wind (up **52.9% YoY**) - **65 GW** from thermal sources (up **54.3% YoY**) [5][9]. Investment Trends - Investments in power generation capacity reached **Rmb722 billion**, a **0.7% YoY** increase, while investments in the power grid rose to **Rmb482 billion**, up **7.2% YoY** [9]. Analyst Ratings and Industry Outlook - The overall view of the **China Utilities** sector is considered **attractive**, with several companies rated positively, including: - **China Resources Power**: Overweight - **China Longyuan Power Group**: Overweight - **Huaneng Power International Inc.**: Equal-weight [7][59]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in the renewable energy sector, driven by government policies and increasing demand for cleaner energy sources [7][9]. - Analysts caution that while the growth is promising, investors should remain aware of potential risks associated with market fluctuations and regulatory changes [7][9].

Core Insights - NRG Energy has forecasted standalone core profit for the full year 2026 to exceed its updated range for 2025, driven by increasing power demand [1] - Following this announcement, the utility firm's shares rose by 1% in premarket trading [1] Company Summary - The forecasted profit increase is attributed to surging power demand, indicating a positive outlook for NRG Energy's financial performance [1] Industry Context - The rising power demand reflects broader trends in the energy sector, suggesting potential growth opportunities for utility companies [1]

Group 1 - Melius upgraded GE Vernova from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to $740 due to increasing global power demand and strong pricing power [1] - The stock has risen fivefold since its spin-off, with analysts noting that the backdrop for energy demand and pricing trends continues to strengthen [1] - Analysts forecasted an upside to earnings estimates over the next several years, with pricing power expected to become increasingly evident by 2028 [1] Group 2 - The $740 price target is based on 34 times the 2027 earnings estimate and 20 times the early 2028 forecast, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth trajectory [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Energisa, Equatorial, and Copel, while Cemig is rated as "Sell" [6][64][50]. Core Insights - The new power distribution opex methodology approved by the regulator aims to enhance efficiency sharing with consumers, impacting the fair equity values of the companies covered [7][21]. - Energisa and Equatorial are the most exposed to the new methodology, with estimated impacts of -9% and -8% on their fair equity values, respectively [2][8]. - Despite recent market rallies, the sector remains reasonably valued, with an average real spread of approximately 3.8% to Brazil's free risk bonds [3]. Summary by Sections New Opex Methodology - The new methodology includes annual updates to reference opex, a simplified benchmark model, and the application of the IPCA index for all variables [7][21]. - Cost outperformance sharing with consumers is now correlated to median sectoral efficiency, with limits set at 140%/60% for cost outperformance [21][28]. Company-Specific Adjustments - Energisa's fair equity value is adjusted down by -9% due to the new methodology and updated power demand forecasts, with a revised 2025E growth estimate of 0.5% YoY [49][50]. - Equatorial's fair equity value is adjusted down by -8%, with a similar revision in growth estimates to 0.5% YoY for 2025E [63][64]. - Copel is the least affected, with a -3% impact on fair equity value [2][8]. Market Demand and Forecasts - The report incorporates updated forecasts from Brazil's independent power system operator, indicating a decrease in power demand growth, with a -4% YoY drop noted in April and May 2025 [44][45]. - The overall demand forecast for 2025E has been revised down to -3.1% YoY from a previous estimate of +0.4% YoY [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The growing demand for energy in the U.S. presents significant opportunities for energy companies, particularly NextEra Energy, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [2][3][11] Company Overview - NextEra Energy operates the largest electric utility in the U.S., Florida Power & Light (FPL), and is a leader in clean energy through its NextEra Energy Resources segment, making it the world's largest producer of renewable energy from wind and solar [5][11] - The company has built more renewable energy-generation capacity than any other company in the past two decades, along with a significant gas-fired generation capacity [6][11] Financial Performance - NextEra Energy has achieved a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the past 20 years, contributing to a 10% CAGR in dividends during the same period [7] - The company's total returns have outperformed the S&P 500, with an annualized return of 15.7% compared to 10.2% for the index [7] Growth Potential - The U.S. is projected to need an additional 450 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity by 2030 to meet demand, with renewable energy, particularly solar, expected to play a crucial role due to its lower costs and rapid deployment capabilities [8][10] - FPL has installed over 7.9 GW of solar capacity and plans to deploy more than 17 GW of solar and over 7.6 GW of battery storage in the next decade [9] Investment Strategy - NextEra Energy plans to invest $120 billion over the next four years to maintain and expand energy infrastructure, which is expected to support adjusted EPS growth at the top end of its 6% to 8% annual target range through 2027 [10] - The company anticipates continuing to grow its dividend by around 10% annually, supported by the expected surge in power demand [10]