Core Insights - Coinbase Global Inc. is considering launching its own prediction market business while currently partnering with Kalshi for distribution [1][2] - The prediction market service was recently rolled out in all 50 states, coinciding with Super Bowl LX, which saw significant engagement [2][3] Financial Performance - Coinbase reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.78 billion, which was below analyst expectations, but the earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66 exceeded forecasts [5] - For the full fiscal year, Coinbase's total revenue reached $7.2 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [5] Market Activity - Kalshi's CEO noted a remarkable 2,700% year-over-year increase in Super Bowl LX betting volume, with over $1 billion wagered [3] - Coinbase's advertisement during Super Bowl LX was poorly received, trending as the lowest-rated ad following the event [4]

Polymarket has filed trademark applications for "POLY" and "$POLY" with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, signaling concrete steps toward launching its long-anticipated native token, even as the prediction market faces mounting regulatory challenges. The filings, submitted Thursday by Polymarket's parent company Blockratize Inc., cover trademark protection for “cryptocurrency services, financial trading platforms, and blockchain-based payment systems.” Both applications describe services for "provid ...

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) stands out as one of Cathie Wood’s 10 stock picks with huge upside potential. Falling Cryptocurrency Prices and Concerns Surrounding Lower Prediction Market Activity Weighs on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) On February 2, 2026, falling cryptocurrency prices and concerns surrounding lower prediction market activity weighed on the stock, driving Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) shares downward. The stock declined by more than 10% during the day, bringing the year-to-dat ...

Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab remains cautious about the gamification of trading, opting not to engage in gambling-related activities, unlike fintechs such as Robinhood and FanDuel [1][4] Group 1: Company Strategy and Growth - Schwab's focus on financial planning and live coaching has attracted younger investors, with Gen-Z clients being 41% more likely to start investing before age 21 compared to previous generations [2] - The average client age at Schwab has decreased by 10 years over the last decade due to its strategic initiatives [2] - Schwab's stock has gained approximately 27% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500, which increased nearly 14% in the same period [5] Group 2: Market Position and Analyst Insights - JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington has maintained an Overweight rating on Schwab's stock, raising the price target to $128, citing a strong finish to 2025 with $164 billion in core new assets in Q4 [6] - Schwab's cautious approach to the prediction market landscape includes plans to integrate insights into event probabilities into its platform, while distinguishing between legitimate economic hedges and pure gaming aspects [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Circle's stock (CRCL) experienced a 4% increase following an upgrade to neutral by Mizuho, driven by increased activity on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, which is expected to boost the demand for Circle's stablecoin, USDC [1] Group 1: Market Activity and Projections - Mizuho's analyst Dan Dolev highlighted that Polymarket's trading volumes for 2026 are projected to reach around $50 billion, which is three times the volume of 2025, indicating a significant growth opportunity for USDC [2] - The current run-rate on Polymarket could potentially increase USDC's market cap by approximately 25% or more [2] - Dolev raised his forecasts for the average USDC in circulation for 2026 and 2027 by approximately 7% and 21% respectively, leading to revenue estimates increases of about 6% and 21% for those years [3] Group 2: Broader Trends and User Base - The rise of event-driven crypto trading is attributed to the diversification of prediction markets into areas such as sports, economics, and pop culture, which has attracted a larger user base [3] - Polymarket is noted for drawing non-crypto-native users into the crypto space through event trading, thereby increasing demand for USDC from outside the traditional DeFi audience [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Price Target - Despite the positive outlook from Polymarket, Dolev refrained from issuing a bullish call, setting a price target of $77, indicating only modest upside from the current price just above $70 [4] - Adverse factors such as potential rate cuts, rising distribution costs, and competition from Tether (USDT) and other financial institutions launching their own stablecoins are seen as offsetting the potential benefits from Polymarket [4] - Circle's stock increase occurred amidst a general decline in crypto-related stocks, coinciding with the stagnant price of bitcoin, which remains below $90,000 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rocket Internet AG, a former prominent German venture capital firm, has gone "dark" and delisted in 2020, with its stock price remaining low until recent developments involving an activist's criticism of accounting practices [3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Rocket Internet AG was once a leading venture capital company in Germany, managed by the Samwer brothers [3]. - The company has been criticized for "low balling" its accounting numbers by an activist, which has brought attention to its financial practices [3]. Group 2: Investment Potential - The current share price of Rocket Internet is believed to reflect less than 50% of its net asset value (NAV) [3]. - The portfolio includes valuable assets such as a stake in SpaceX and the prediction market company Kalshi, which are seen as potential catalysts for share price appreciation [3]. - There is a possibility of Rocket Internet distributing another special dividend, similar to what occurred in 2024 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) are pursuing contrasting strategies in the $63 billion prediction market sector, with IBKR focusing on utility contracts and Robinhood emphasizing sports contracts [1]. Group 1: Interactive Brokers (IBKR) - IBKR is not pursuing sports betting and is instead targeting temperature contracts for utilities to hedge electricity demand, indicating a strategic focus on institutional clients [2]. - The company's ForecastEx exchange saw a significant increase in activity, trading 286 million contract pairs in Q4, up from 15 million in Q3, and now lists over 10,000 instruments [2]. - By avoiding sports contracts, IBKR sidesteps the regulatory issues affecting sports-focused platforms [3]. Group 2: Robinhood Markets (HOOD) - Robinhood has launched prediction markets focused on sports, processing over 11 billion contracts and generating approximately $100 million in annualized revenue [6]. - The company reported a volume of 2.3 billion contracts in Q3, with October alone reaching 2.5 billion contracts, primarily driven by NFL, NBA, and college football events [6]. - Robinhood's reliance on Kalshi for its prediction markets exposes it to the same regulatory challenges faced by Kalshi, particularly after a Massachusetts court ruled against sports contracts as illegal gambling [4][5][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - A Massachusetts court ruling deemed Kalshi's sports contracts illegal gambling, leading to restrictions on trading for Massachusetts residents [4]. - Similar regulatory actions have been taken by Tennessee, Connecticut, and New York, which could limit market access for sports-focused platforms like Robinhood [5]. - The ongoing regulatory challenges raise questions about the sustainability of sports-focused prediction markets compared to IBKR's utility-focused approach [9]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The prediction market sector saw a volume increase to $63.5 billion last year, up 302% from 2024, indicating significant growth potential [9]. - Upcoming earnings reports from SoFi, Robinhood, and Webull will provide insights into the effectiveness of their respective strategies in navigating regulatory pressures and market opportunities [9].

Core Insights - Wagering on the potential removal of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has significantly increased amid ongoing anti-regime protests, which have now lasted for 12 days [1][4]. Group 1: Betting Activity - The trade volume for the bet "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?" has surged to $4.7 million within just four days of its launch, making it one of the most popular bets on the Polymarket platform [2]. - Current betting odds suggest a 17% chance of Khamenei being removed from power by the end of January, while approximately 82% of bettors believe he will remain in his position [3]. Group 2: Context of Protests - The protests have been fueled by public frustration over the collapse of the Iranian Rial and soaring inflation, leading to a nationwide internet blackout imposed by authorities [4][5]. - Reports indicate that at least 42 individuals have died during the unrest, including minors and security personnel, although state media has minimized the scale of the demonstrations [5].

Core Insights - Bitnomial has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a prediction-markets service for U.S. customers, allowing it to proceed with contracts focused on cryptocurrencies and economic outcomes [1] - The CFTC's "no-action letter" indicates that Bitnomial's new offering is compliant and safe to operate, following similar approvals for other prediction market ventures [1] - The approval marks a continuation of Bitnomial's regulatory progress, having previously become the first agency-regulated firm to offer leveraged spot crypto transactions under former CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham [3] Company Operations - Bitnomial's transactions will be cleared through Bitnomial Clearinghouse, LLC, providing participants exposure to various outcomes, including token price movements and macroeconomic indicators [2] - The integration across Bitnomial's product suite is designed to enable traders to more effectively offset risk [2] Regulatory Context - The recent approval is a non-binding, staff-level endorsement under the tenure of newly confirmed CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, following a series of approvals for other prediction market operations [3]

Core Insights - Polymarket and Dow Jones have formed an exclusive partnership to integrate Polymarket's real-time prediction market data into Dow Jones consumer platforms, enhancing the understanding of market probabilities and future outcomes [1][2][4] Group 1: Partnership Overview - The collaboration aims to provide audiences with enhanced visibility into prediction market signals across various topics, including economic, political, and cultural issues [2] - Polymarket data will be featured on Dow Jones digital properties, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, MarketWatch, and Investor's Business Daily, through dedicated data modules and select print placements [2][3] Group 2: New Features and Consumer Benefits - Dow Jones plans to introduce consumer-facing features that incorporate prediction market data, such as a custom earnings calendar that highlights market-implied expectations regarding corporate performance [3] - Additional data-driven experiences are anticipated to be launched over time, further enriching the consumer experience [3] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The partnership aims to make prediction market data accessible to users, providing real-time insights into collective beliefs about future events, thereby aiding decision-making [4] - The collaboration combines journalistic insight with real-time market probabilities, creating a comprehensive news experience for readers, particularly around significant business news like public company earnings reports [4]