Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR reported a total economic return of 10.63% for Q4 2025, benefiting from MBS spreads tightening and a lower interest rate environment [4] - GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $208.7 million, or $1.86 per share, while net interest income was $50.4 million [4] - Distributable earnings available to common stockholders were $79.8 million, or $0.71 per common share [4] - Quarter-end book value increased to $18.63 per common share, up 6.5% from September 30 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's mortgage assets now total over $20 billion, with a portfolio growth of more than 10% from the end of Q3 2025 [9] - The portfolio remains nearly 100% agency MBS, agency CMBS, or DOS, with a net balance sheet duration of 0.14 years [12] - The company added over $3 billion of MBS pools and DOS across Q4 and early Q1 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market's appeal remains anchored in declining rate volatility and easing funding costs, supported by the Fed's efforts to lower rates [10] - Aggregate portfolio prepayments averaged 11.1 CPR through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to date, compared to 8.1 CPR in Q3 2025 [15] - The 30-year mortgage rate has remained in a tight 6%-6.3% band, recently shifting toward the low end of that range [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR views agency MBS as a high conviction opportunity, with a focus on maintaining moderate leverage and a strong capital liquidity position [9] - The company aims to pay an attractive and stable dividend, with a medium-term outlook [20] - ARMOUR's strategy includes stress testing liquidity, applying systematic hedging, and deploying capital when opportunities arise [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the positioning and strategy for 2026, anticipating continued favorable conditions for MBS [20] - The administration's focus on lowering mortgage spreads is expected to support a stable mortgage market [10] - Management noted that further declines in mortgage rates will require lower long-end Treasury yields, which have not declined in sync with front-end rate cuts [16] Other Important Information - ARMOUR raised approximately $3.8 million of capital by issuing preferred stock and $138 million under its common-at-the-market program [6][7] - The company has launched a new investor presentation to provide additional insights into the portfolio's transformation over time [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for portfolio and interest-bearing assets growth in 2026 - Management indicated that growth depends on market behavior and capital raising opportunities [24] Question: Incremental returns on new investments given spread tightening - Current levered yield on thirty of fives is around 15%, with potential for additional returns from spread tightening and curve steepening [29] Question: Likelihood of further government actions to lower mortgage rates - Management noted that while some actions have been taken, further steps may introduce complexities that could counteract stability in mortgage spreads [34] Question: Current liquidity position and near-term outlook - Management confirmed liquidity is about 54% of total equity, reflecting moderate leverage and steady liquidity [37] Question: Risk of faster prepayments as mortgage rates lower - Management acknowledged increased prepayment risk but stated the portfolio is structured to mitigate this risk [39]

Strategic Performance and Market Dynamics - Performance in Q4 was driven by significant MBS spread tightening of approximately 22 basis points, reduced market volatility, and a lower interest rate environment [4] - The portfolio grew during the quarter as the company added over $3 billion of MBS pools and DUS, while maintaining a balanced leverage posture of 7.9 turns [4] - Management attributes the supportive market backdrop to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which has improved funding costs and stabilized banking liquidity [4] - Strategic positioning favors Agency MBS over corporate credit due to a steeper yield curve and historically tight valuations in the credit sector [4] - Technical supply and demand dynamics have turned favorable, supported by the FHFA's $200 billion MBS purchase mandate and negative net issuance of conventional MBS [4] - The company maintains a high liquidity position, with capital liquidity representing 54% of total shareholders' equity as of January [4] Outlook and Strategic Assumptions - Management expects a consistent and predictable return profile driven by a steeper yield curve and lower volatility throughout 2026 [4] - Guidance assumes the Federal Reserve will continue easing the overnight Fed Funds rate and prioritize orderly funding markets through preemptive liquidity measures [4] - The company anticipates potential for further spread tightening and curve steepening, which could add approximately 4% and 1% respectively to total returns [4] - Strategic focus is shifting toward lower coupons and seasoned collateral to hedge against potential refinancing acceleration if mortgage rates drop below 6% [4] - Future capital raising remains opportunistic and dependent on the alignment of investment attractiveness and equity market conditions [4] Operational Risks and Structural Factors - Prepayment speeds increased to 11.1 CPR in Q4 and early Q1, up from 8.1 CPR in Q3, reflecting higher sensitivity to marginal mortgage rate declines [4] - The portfolio is heavily insulated against prepayment risk, with 92% of assets in specified pools and nearly 30% in prepayment-protected agency CMBS or discount MBS [4] - Repo market conditions have improved with rates averaging roughly SOFR plus 15 basis points and weighted average haircuts at approximately 2.75% [4] - Management flagged that further government affordability initiatives, such as G-fee cuts, could introduce negative convexity and counterproductive market volatility [5]

Core Insights - The iShares MBS ETF (MBB) illustrates the importance of price appreciation in total returns, beyond just yield, particularly in the context of interest rate movements [1][4] Fund Overview - MBB provides exposure to agency mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, which carry government guarantees, thus eliminating credit risk [2] - The fund manages $39 billion in assets, resulting in a low expense ratio of 0.04%, enhancing efficiency and ensuring more income flows to investors [3] Return Dynamics - MBB has shown strong total returns over the past year, primarily driven by price appreciation as mortgage spreads compressed, alongside a steady 4% yield [4] - The fund's performance is influenced by interest rate sensitivity and prepayment risk, which can affect future income [6][7] Investment Considerations - MBB may not be suitable for investors with short time horizons or those prioritizing capital preservation due to potential monthly swings of 2% to 3% during rate volatility [8] - Growth-focused investors may find MBB limiting, as it serves more as a diversification tool rather than a wealth-building investment [9] Alternative Options - Vanguard's Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) offers a lower annual fee of 0.03%, which can lead to significant savings over time for long-term investors [10] Best Use Case - MBB is best suited as a core bond holding for investors who understand the dual return mechanism of mortgage-backed securities, contingent on favorable rate environments and manageable prepayment risk [11]

Summary of the 2026 Year Ahead Outlook for Agency MBS Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market and its outlook for 2026, influenced by macroeconomic factors, government policies, and Federal Reserve actions. Key Points and Arguments 1. Government Influence and Policy Outlook - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to drive the administration to prioritize housing affordability, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates [1][44] - The Federal Reserve's leadership change may result in a more dovish policy stance, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2026 [1][26] 2. Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - A cautiously optimistic sentiment prevails, with a basis overweight maintained despite anticipated near-term volatility due to policy and prepayment risks [2][49] - Investors are advised to carefully select their positions, particularly favoring the belly of the coupon stack to minimize prepayment risk [4][49] 3. Prepayment Risk - Prepayment speeds are expected to increase, potentially exceeding pandemic levels by 10-15%, driven by various factors including borrower willingness and AI-enhanced lender efficiency [3][49] - Policy risks related to Loan Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) and alternative credit scores are highlighted as significant uncertainties for 2026 [3][49] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Projected gross issuance for 2026 is estimated at $1.35 trillion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with net issuance expected to reach $244 billion, an 18% increase [5][49] - Demand is anticipated to be supported by money managers and potential GSE (Government-Sponsored Enterprises) buying, although bank interest may be moderate [5][49] 5. Housing Market and Affordability Initiatives - The administration's focus on housing affordability may lead to initiatives such as declaring a Housing Emergency, which could facilitate regulatory easing and potentially lower mortgage rates [44][47] - Discussions around GSE reform and adjustments to LLPAs are expected to continue, with implications for mortgage affordability and market dynamics [48][49] 6. Investor Survey Insights - The annual investor survey indicates a split sentiment, with 54% of respondents reporting a neutral MBS allocation and 44% overweight, reflecting cautious optimism [50][53] - A significant majority (87%) of respondents expect GSEs to be net buyers in 2026, with many anticipating a Housing Emergency declaration to trigger further buying [60][70] 7. Economic Forecasts - Economic forecasts suggest a stable unemployment rate around 4.5% and a gradual decline in Fed Funds rates to a terminal range of 3.0%-3.25% by the end of 2026 [26][49] - The primary mortgage rate is projected to remain around 6.25%, with expectations of prepayment risk returning at lower rates [89][49] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macro and political drivers in shaping the MBS market in 2026, with potential surprises from government initiatives being a key factor for investors [49][50] - The sentiment around the housing market remains cautious, with a focus on affordability and the potential for regulatory changes impacting supply and demand dynamics [44][49] This comprehensive outlook provides a detailed analysis of the Agency MBS market, highlighting the interplay between government policy, economic conditions, and investor sentiment as key determinants of future performance.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded a comprehensive loss of $80.2 million, or $0.77 per share, including a litigation settlement expense of $175.1 million, which was $1.68 per share [16][17] - The return on book value was negative 0.63% including the litigation expense, while it would have been positive 7.6% excluding the expense [16][17] - Total economic return for the third quarter was negative 6.3%, and positive 7.6% without the litigation expense [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The RMBS portfolio decreased to $10.9 billion from $11.4 billion due to agency securities sales [6] - The company sold $19.1 billion UPB of MSR and an additional $10 billion UPB expected to settle soon, both slightly above marks [6][8] - The direct-to-consumer originations platform funded $49 million of UPB in first and second liens, with a record high of $60 million UPB in second liens brokered during the quarter [12][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September, marking the first cut since November 2024, which positively impacted equity markets, with the S&P 500 up almost 8% by quarter-end [10][11] - The nominal spread for current coupon RMBS tightened by 26 basis points to 145 basis points to the swap curve [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its MSR-focused investment strategy and grow its servicing and origination activities [9][13] - The company plans to redeem $262 million UPB of outstanding convertible notes to reduce structural leverage to historical levels [8] - The company is optimistic about the investment opportunities available in the market, particularly in the MSR and MBS portfolio [15][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's liquidity and risk metrics post-litigation settlement, indicating a clear path forward [5][9] - The company sees mortgage spreads as attractive despite recent tightening and believes its strategy is well-positioned to capitalize on market conditions [14][31] - Management highlighted the importance of technology investments to improve customer experiences and reduce costs [13][69] Other Important Information - The company has established a significant relationship with a new sub-servicing client, bringing the total sub-servicing UPB to approximately $40 billion [8] - The company is focused on improving efficiencies and lowering costs in light of the recent settlement payments [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key drivers of the increase in the EAD in the third quarter relative to the second quarter? - The increase in EAD is attributed to the decrease in financing costs, allowing asset yields to remain constant [34] Question: Can you give us an update on your book value quarter to date? - The book value was up about 1% as of last Friday [37] Question: Can you talk about the various risk metrics as you think about the size of the portfolio following the settlement? - The company looks at multiple risk metrics, including returns available on asset classes and overall leverage [41][43] Question: Does the return potential slide factor in potential cost savings? - The return potential slide reflects current costs, with potential upside as cost savings are realized [44][46] Question: Can you help us understand the coupon positioning strategy? - The coupon exposure is managed based on how rates move and the current coupon risk in the MSR portfolio [51][52] Question: Can you provide insight into growth opportunities in the sub-servicing business? - The company is focused on building relationships and attracting clients dissatisfied with their current sub-servicers [60][61] Question: How do you see MSR valuations responding to a further drop in interest rates? - MSR valuations are expected to remain stable, with strong demand for low gross WAC MSR [87][88] Question: What is the valuation of the flow MSRs that you're originating versus your existing portfolio? - The price multiple for the entire portfolio is 5.8 times, with variations based on coupon rates [99][100]

Financial Performance - The company reported a comprehensive loss of $(0.77) per share [6] - The economic return on book value was (6.3)% [6] - Excluding litigation settlement expense, the economic return on book value was 7.6% [6] - A common stock dividend of $0.34 per share was declared [6, 13] Portfolio Composition - The investment portfolio totaled $13.5 billion [6] - The portfolio composition included Agency RMBS of $6.5 billion, MSR of $2.6 billion, and cash & cash equivalents of $0.8 billion [18] - The company's economic debt-to-equity ratio was 7.2x [6] MSR Portfolio - The fair value of the MSR portfolio was $2.627 billion [41] - The UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) of the MSR portfolio was $177.216 billion [41] - The weighted average 3-month CPR (Conditional Prepayment Rate) for the MSR portfolio was 6.0% [41]

Financial Performance - The company's book value per share was $12.14 [6] - The comprehensive loss per share was $(2.13) [6] - Excluding the loss contingency accrual, the economic return on book value was (1.4)% [6] - Including the loss contingency accrual, the economic return on book value was (14.5)% [6] - The company declared a common stock dividend of $0.39 per share [6, 19] Portfolio Composition - The investment portfolio totaled $14.4 billion [6] - The economic debt-to-equity ratio was 7.0x [6] - The fair value of MSR (Mortgage Servicing Rights) was $3.016 billion [47] - The UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) of the MSR portfolio was $200.363 billion [47] RoundPoint Operations - RoundPoint serviced UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) was $204 billion [13] - Direct-to-consumer originations funded first lien loans of $48.6 million UPB [13] - Direct-to-consumer originations brokered second lien loans of $44.0 million UPB [13]