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Arthur J. Gallagher Trades Below 50-Day SMA: How to Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 18:31
Core Viewpoint - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is experiencing a short-term bearish trend as it trades below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a key indicator for identifying support and resistance levels [1] Price Performance - AJG shares have increased by 6.1% year-to-date, contrasting with a 13.9% decline in the industry. The Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite have risen by 10.7% and 9.6%, respectively, during the same period [2] - The market capitalization of AJG stands at $77.2 billion, with an average trading volume of 1.5 million shares over the last three months [2] Valuation Metrics - AJG shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 3.35X, which is lower than the industry average of 4.31X, indicating that the shares are affordable compared to peers [4] Growth Projections - AJG has posted a 15% revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2024, with margins expanding to 33.3%. The company has completed 770 acquisitions since 2002, contributing to its inorganic growth [8][15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $13.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.8%. Current-year earnings are estimated at $10.98 per share, suggesting an 8.8% growth from the previous year [9] - Analysts project a 23% increase in earnings per share and a 22.8% increase in revenues for 2026 [9] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have recently lowered their estimates for 2025 earnings, with a 0.2% decrease in the past week and a 0.1% decrease over the past month [11] Operational Insights - AJG's organic growth is expected to be between 6% and 8% in both the Brokerage and Risk Management segments for 2025, with an adjusted EBITDAC margin of 20.5% [14] - The company’s international operations currently account for about one-third of its revenues, with expectations for further growth in this area [16] Profitability Challenges - Rising expenses have impacted AJG's profitability, with net margin declining to 10.9% in Q2 2025 from 13.3% year-over-year [17] - Total debt has reached $13 billion, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 35.87, which is favorable compared to the industry average of 50.12 [18] - Return on equity has fallen to 13.2%, down 610 basis points year-over-year, indicating inefficiencies in utilizing shareholders' funds [19] Shareholder Value - AJG has raised its dividend five times in the past five years, achieving a five-year annualized growth of 7.9% and maintaining a payout ratio of 25% [20] Conclusion - AJG's strong global presence, client retention, and strategic acquisitions provide a solid foundation for growth in the insurance brokerage and risk management sectors. However, increasing expenses, high debt levels, and declining return metrics are beginning to affect profitability, which may temper near-term performance [21]
Everest Group Trades Below 50-Day SMA: How to Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-08-19 16:56
Key Takeaways Everest Group expands globally, cutting North America risk and boosting diversification in 100+ countries.Reinsurance platform ranks 4th in P&C, with optimized portfolio and lower catastrophe volatility.Net investment income continues to rise, supported by a conservative and diversified portfolio.Everest Group, Ltd. (EG) has been trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling a short-term bearish trend. The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for traders and analysts to identify sup ...
Reinsurance Group Stock Plunges 11.1% YTD: How Should You Play?
ZACKS· 2025-08-14 17:36
Key Takeaways Reinsurance Group leads reinsurance markets in the United States, Latin America, and Canada.Q2 net investment income surged 30.1% to $1.4B, with yields up 66 bps to 5.3%.Shares have lost 11.1% YTD as 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates decline.Shares of Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) have lost 11.1% compared with the industry’s decline of 2.5% in the year-to-date period. The Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite have gained 10.6% and 9.5%, respectively, in the same time frame.The i ...
WRB Outperforms Industry, Trades at a Premium: How to Play the Stock
ZACKS· 2025-08-11 15:21
Core Insights - W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) shares have increased by 23.6% over the past year, outperforming the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which grew by 20.4% and 20.3% respectively [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $26.78 billion and an average trading volume of 1.8 million shares over the last three months [1] Valuation - WRB shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 2.88X, which is above the industry average of 1.42X, indicating a premium valuation [2] - Other insurers like Arch Capital Group Ltd., The Travelers Companies, Inc., and Cincinnati Financial Corporation are also trading at a premium to the industry [2] Technical Analysis - WRB shares closed at $70.63, close to its 52-week high of $76.38, indicating strong investor confidence [3] - The stock is trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $65.40, suggesting solid upward momentum [3] Business Focus and Growth Drivers - WRB focuses on commercial lines, including excess & surplus, admitted, and specialty personal lines, which are key growth areas [6][11] - The company is expected to see a year-over-year earnings per share increase of 2.1% in 2025, with revenues projected to reach $14.60 billion, reflecting an 8% improvement [7] - Earnings have grown by 27.8% over the past five years, outperforming the industry average of 20.9% [8] Financial Performance - Return on equity for the trailing 12 months stands at 18.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.6% [9] - Return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing, currently at 8.8%, compared to the industry average of 5.8% [10] Strategic Expansion - WRB is expanding selectively in attractive global markets, including the UK, Continental Europe, South America, Canada, Scandinavia, Asia, and Australia [13] - The company has maintained over 60 consecutive quarters of favorable reserve development due to prudent underwriting practices [13] Dividend and Cash Flow - WRB has a dividend yield of 0.5%, which is above the industry average of 0.2%, making it appealing for yield-seeking investors [6][16] - The company has consistently increased dividends since 2005 and has also engaged in share buybacks [16]
Radian Hits 52-Week High: Time to Add the Stock for Better Returns?
ZACKS· 2025-07-03 15:26
Core Insights - Radian Group Inc. (RDN) shares closed at $36.32, near its 52-week high, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [1] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting solid upward momentum [1] Company Performance - RDN has gained 14.5% year to date, outperforming its industry and the Finance sector, which grew by 7.7% and 8.9%, respectively [3][4] - The company has outperformed peers such as Old Republic International Corporation (3.7% gain), MetLife, Inc. (2.1% loss), and Assurant, Inc. (10% loss) [4] Market Outlook - The private mortgage insurance market is expected to remain around $300 billion in 2025, with RDN focusing on core, fee-based businesses for growth [7][18] - RDN's revenue for 2025 is estimated at $1.26 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 0.9% [9] Valuation Metrics - RDN shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.12X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.73X and the Finance sector's 4.27X [8] - The average price target for RDN is $36.83, suggesting a potential upside of 0.74% from the last closing price [11] Analyst Sentiment - One of the two analysts covering RDN has raised estimates for 2025 and 2026, leading to a 1.06% and 1.3% increase in consensus estimates, respectively [10] Financial Health - RDN has been strengthening its capital position through capital contributions and reinsurance transactions, allowing for dividend hikes and share buybacks [17] - The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of dividend increases, with a current yield of 2.8% [19] Growth Drivers - New business growth and rising annual persistency rates are expected to expand RDN's insurance-in-force portfolio [7][16] - The company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates, averaging a 12.45% surprise over the last four quarters [9]
Chubb Stock Trades Above 200-Day SMA: What Should Investors Do?
ZACKS· 2025-06-12 15:26
Core Insights - Chubb Limited (CB) is currently trading above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend, with a share price of $285.61 as of June 11, 2025, down 6.9% from its 52-week high of $306.91 [1] Market Performance - Chubb has a market capitalization of $114.45 billion, with an average trading volume of 1.7 million shares over the last three months [3] - Year-to-date, Chubb's shares have gained 3.4%, underperforming the industry growth of 7.9% and the Finance sector's return of 5.7%, but outperforming the S&P 500's return of 2.1% [9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book value for Chubb is 1.62, slightly above the industry average of 1.56, with a Value Score of B [4] - The Zacks average price target for Chubb is $308.15 per share, indicating a potential upside of 7.6% from the last closing price [12] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chubb's 2025 revenues is $59.74 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 6.2% [10] - Analysts have raised estimates for 2025 and 2026 earnings, with a 1.7% increase for 2025 earnings estimates and a 0.3% increase for 2026 [11] Financial Performance - Chubb has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.48% [14] - Return on equity for Chubb in the trailing 12 months was 12.3%, significantly better than the industry average of 7.8% [15] - Return on invested capital (ROIC) was 8%, also outperforming the industry average of 5.95% [16] Strategic Initiatives - Chubb is focusing on middle-market businesses and enhancing its core and specialty product offerings for long-term growth [21] - The company is pursuing strategic mergers and acquisitions, including the recent agreement to acquire Liberty Mutual's insurance businesses in Thailand and Vietnam, which is expected to improve premium revenues [22] - Chubb anticipates quarterly adjusted net investment income to range between $1.67 billion and $1.75 billion over the next six months, benefiting from improved operating cash flow [23] Dividend History - Chubb has a strong dividend history, having increased dividends for 31 consecutive years, with a planned hike of 6.5% this year, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.27%, which is better than the industry average of 0.2% [25]
RLI Trading at a Premium to Industry: How Should You Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-05-16 14:51
Group 1: Valuation and Market Performance - RLI Corp. shares are trading at a premium to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, with a price-to-book value of 4.28X compared to the industry average of 1.49X and the Finance sector's 4.1X, but at a discount to the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 7.82X [1] - RLI shares have gained 0.6% in the past year, lagging behind the industry, Finance sector, and Zacks S&P 500 composite returns of 18.7%, 16.2%, and 11%, respectively [2][3] - The stock closed at $74.83, below its 52-week high of $91.14, and is trading below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $76.04 and $78.11, indicating downward momentum [4] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RLI's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, with revenues projected at $1.78 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 6.5% [8] - For 2026, the consensus estimates for earnings per share and revenues indicate increases of 3.2% and 5.9%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategy - RLI's return on equity (ROE) has improved, with a trailing 12 months ROE of 16.2%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.7% [9] - The company continues to grow through product diversification, a compelling product portfolio, and a conservative underwriting policy, which helps achieve favorable reserve releases despite incurring catastrophe losses [10] - RLI has a strong track record of underwriting profitability, with 29 consecutive years of profitability [11] Group 4: Shareholder Value and Capital Structure - RLI enhances shareholder value through dividend hikes, special dividends, and share buybacks, boasting an impressive dividend track record with regular dividends increased for the last 50 years [12] - The company is strengthening its balance sheet by improving liquidity and leverage, which supports its operations and long-term book value growth [13] Group 5: Conclusion - RLI is recognized as one of the industry's most profitable P&C writers, with a strong local branch network and a focus on specialty insurance lines contributing to its superior profitability [15] - Given its premium valuation, it may be prudent to wait for a better entry point for this stock [16]
KNSL Trading at a Premium to Industry: How Should You Play the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-05-15 13:56
Core Insights - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) shares are trading at a premium compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, with a price-to-book value of 6.47X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.52X and the Finance sector's 4.11X [1] - Kinsale Capital's stock has gained 14.3% over the past year, underperforming its industry growth of 21.8% and the Finance sector's growth of 17.1%, but outperforming the S&P 500 composite's return of 10.9% [2][3] - The company has a market capitalization of $10.23 billion, with a recent closing price of $438.99, which is below its 52-week high of $531.79 [4] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinsale Capital's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 10%, with revenues expected to reach $1.75 billion, reflecting a 10.2% improvement [8] - Earnings have grown 44.3% over the past five years, outperforming the industry average of 18.9%, with a long-term earnings growth rate expected at 15%, compared to the industry average of 6.9% [9] - Kinsale Capital has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.07% [10] Efficiency and Returns - Kinsale Capital's return on equity (ROE) stands at 26.3%, significantly higher than the industry's 7.7%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [11] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is 22.7%, also outperforming the industry's 5.9%, reflecting the company's efficiency in generating income [12] Market Position and Strategy - Kinsale Capital has a strong presence in the excess and surplus (E&S) market in the U.S., benefiting from high retention rates and improved premiums due to significant market growth [13] - The company targets small to medium-sized accounts, achieving better pricing and lower competition, with management estimating low double-digit rate increases across its business [15] - Kinsale Capital aims for a combined ratio in the mid-80s range over the long term, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability [15] Technological Edge and Investment Income - The company leverages a proprietary technology platform to enhance operational efficiency and scalability, driving profitability [16] - Despite a low-interest rate environment, Kinsale Capital's investment income is expected to benefit from the investment of excess operating funds, with free cash flow conversion remaining above 85% [17] Dividend and Share Repurchase - Kinsale Capital has a strong dividend history, increasing dividends since 2017 at a seven-year CAGR of 12.1%, supported by operational excellence [19] - The board of directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of common stock, indicating confidence in the company's financial position [19]
RGA Stock Trading at a Discount to Industry at 1.19X: Time to Hold?
ZACKS· 2025-05-14 15:30
Core Viewpoint - Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) shares are trading at a discount compared to the Zacks Life Insurance industry, with a forward price-to-book value of 1.19X, lower than the industry average of 1.80X and the Finance sector's 4.09X [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - RGA has a market capitalization of $13.64 billion and an average trading volume of 0.4 million shares over the last three months [1] - RGA's shares have lost 1% over the past year, while the industry has grown by 14.3%, the Finance sector by 16.3%, and the S&P 500 by 10% [5][6] - The company has a decent earnings surprise history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 7.85% [9] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RGA's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, with revenues projected at $24.28 billion, reflecting a 6.2% improvement [10] - Earnings have grown by 15.3% over the past five years, outperforming the industry average of 7.8% [11] - The consensus estimates for 2026 earnings per share and revenues suggest increases of 11.4% and 9.4%, respectively, from the 2025 estimates [10] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - RGA's return on invested capital (ROIC) has consistently increased, reaching 6.1% in the trailing 12 months, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.6% [12] - The company has effectively managed capital through share buybacks, dividend payments, and prudent investments, maintaining a free cash flow conversion of over 85% in recent quarters [18][19] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - RGA is a leader in the traditional U.S. and Latin American markets, with a strong product line and capabilities that contribute to risk diversification [13] - In Canada, RGA is well-positioned with a sizable block of in-force business, anticipating long-term growth in longevity insurance [14] - The company is capitalizing on the growing demand for protection products among the emerging global middle class and aging populations [15] Group 5: Future Outlook - RGA's new business volumes, favorable longevity experience, diversified business model, and effective capital deployment are expected to support long-term growth [20] - The stock has a VGM Score of A, indicating attractive value, growth, and momentum [20] - The recommendation is to hold the stock, given its affordability and potential for future performance [21]