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Market Sentiment & Trade - The market has absorbed tariff headlines well, with a 26% increase since Liberation Day despite existing uncertainties [1] - There's a prevailing sentiment that bad news isn't causing sell-offs, and good news is driving the market forward, despite trade deal uncertainties [2] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts and a recovery in EPS and GDP in 2026 [5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic degradation, specifically in unemployment or core CPI, could impact how news is absorbed [3] - Increased pricing pressure is emerging, particularly affecting low-end consumers, potentially impacting philanthropic giving and smaller businesses [4] - Philanthropic giving and spending reflect sentiment about the future rather than past data [7] Economic Dynamics - Significant cash reserves exist on the sidelines from individuals and institutions, suggesting potential for increased money velocity [8] - The "fourth industrial revolution," largely US large-cap dependent, is expected to broaden out to other sectors [8] - About half of the S&P is performing better than the S&P itself, with 175 stocks up over 10% year-to-date, indicating broadening market participation [9] Potential Risks - The Build Back Better (BBB) initiative could exacerbate existing pressures on the low end of the consumer market [10]