Pricing and margin recovery

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高盛:中国医疗服务与设备_2025 年第二季度预览_新订单势头对 CDMO 至关重要;关注院内手术及消费复苏
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Asymchem, Kangji Medical, Weigao, Angelalign, and Hygeia, while Tigermed, WuXi XDC, WuXi Biologics, and Frontage are rated as "Neutral" [11][15][18][27][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the healthcare sector, particularly in the CDMO segment, with expectations for earnings resilience driven by new order growth and demand from both US and EU markets, as well as from Chinese biotech licensing [2][3]. - The Medtech sector is anticipated to see clearer recovery in the second half of 2025, supported by normalized hospital activity and new product contributions [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring pricing competition and consumption recovery signals in the services sector, particularly in consumer-related categories [4]. Summary by Sections CRO/CDMO - Earnings are expected to remain resilient, especially for companies with exposure to late-stage development and manufacturing projects [2]. - Key investor focus areas include new order growth, client behavior shifts amid policy uncertainties, and pricing and margin recovery [2][13]. - EPS estimates have been revised upward by an average of 1.3% to 1.4% for 2025-2027, with target prices adjusted by an average of 4% [1]. Medtech - Recovery is expected to materialize more clearly in the second half of 2025, with key areas to watch including the pace of VBP rollout and surgical volume trends [3]. - Companies like Weigao and Kangji are ramping up new product launches and global expansions, despite some tariff-related uncertainties [3]. Services - Reimbursement control and DRG/DIP pressure are likely to persist, impacting pricing and volumes [4]. - The report notes a cautious outlook for M&A activity, with companies like Hygeia becoming more positive while others remain cautious [9]. Financial Estimates - The report provides detailed financial estimates for various companies, indicating expected sales growth and net income projections for FY25 and beyond [14][19]. - For instance, WuXi Apptec is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10-15% for FY25, while Asymchem anticipates double-digit revenue growth alongside margin improvements [19]. Target Price Changes - Target prices for several companies have been adjusted, with Asymchem's target price increased to HK$85.5, reflecting a 13% change [11][15]. - WuXi Biologics' target price is set at HK$25.6, based on a 12-month forward P/E of 22x [15][31]. Backlog and Order Trajectory - The report includes a detailed analysis of backlog and new order trajectories for key players in the CRO/CDMO space, indicating significant year-on-year growth in sales and backlog for companies like WuXi Apptec and WuXi Biologics [17].