We do have a big number coming up right now though. ADP private payroll data just hitting the wires and Steve Leeman is here with those numbers. Steve, uh minus 32,000 uh versus an estimate of 45,000.Put an asterisk on that. We're going to explain why that's lower than expected. In just a second, the good sector down 3,000, the service sector down 28,000, the non-farm payroll for Friday is 51,000.Now, this number here that you saw was a result in part of ADP incorporating those recent big revisions from the ...

Payroll Analysis - Initial market reaction to headline payroll numbers may be overstated, requiring deeper analysis [1][4][5] - Private payrolls show a slowdown, below 68,000 and the six-month average, indicating a softening job market [3][4] - Government payrolls present a mixed picture, with federal government down due to cuts, while state and local government is up, potentially due to education workers returning [2] - Payroll revisions were surprisingly positive, contrasting with expectations of a downward revision [8] - Overstated payroll figures raise concerns about underlying weakness in the job market [7] Economic Outlook - The payroll data validates a broader economic slowdown, consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession [11][12] - Market valuations may be disconnected from the economic slowdown, requiring caution [12] - Potential for a stimulative bill from Washington D C, could be conducive to risk assets [9] Corporate Impact - Corporate profit margins and reactions are crucial to watch, with the impact still unfolding [6][8] - Layoff environment remains benign, but its sustainability needs monitoring [8] Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates in September and potentially later this year [10]