We are approaching 8:15 a. m. and that means the November ADP private payroll figure is going to be upon us.That's less than 30 seconds away. Ahead of that, let's check the markets. We've been in the green all morning long, but right now the Dow futures are up near their highs, about 137 points above fair value.S&P futures up by close to 22, the Nasdaq indicated up by about 75. And if you've been watching Treasuries, you will see that uh the 10ear is sitting at 406. The 2-year is at 349.All right, ADP out w ...

We are getting some numbers that are pretty important right now. We're going to be looking at the ADP private payroll data. It's just out.Steve Leeman joins us with those numbers. >> Numbers. What a what a what a thought.Fantastic. ADP saying that private payrolls grew by 42,000 in the month of October. Uh with a decent split when it comes to by sector.Goods producing up 9,000, service providing up 33,000. This is a question. Is this the new normal we have to get used to.Is a relatively lackluster number th ...

Employment Data Analysis - ADP private payroll data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly lower than the estimated increase of 45,000 [1] - The August data was revised down by 57,000 from an increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000, reflecting a new growth rate in the job market [2] - Small businesses experienced a decrease of 40,000 jobs, medium businesses decreased by 20,000 jobs, while large businesses increased by 33,000 jobs [3] - Leisure and hospitality sector saw a decline of 19,000 jobs [3] - Job stayers experienced a wage increase of 45%, while job changers saw an increase of 66%, down from 71% in August [3][4] Economic Indicators and Trends - The report indicates a slowdown in hiring momentum compared to the beginning of the year [8] - Initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a low-fire jobs market [10] - Strong GDP growth in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending, raises questions about its sustainability for labor market growth [10][11][12] - Ten-year Treasury yield experienced a slight decrease, reaching 416%, then 410%, a drop of six basis points [13] Data and Methodology - ADP rebenchmarks its data annually to align with the BLS data, which serves as a near census of US workers covered by employment insurance [6][7] - The BLS relies on survey data from the CES survey, while ADP uses an independent measure [18] - The Fed is known to access ADP data with more granularity [15][16] Government Shutdown Impact - A government shutdown would not directly affect ADP's next report, as it does not rely on survey data [17] - Potential layoffs in the government sector could impact private sector employment, particularly among contractors [26]

Payroll Analysis - Initial market reaction to headline payroll numbers may be overstated, requiring deeper analysis [1][4][5] - Private payrolls show a slowdown, below 68,000 and the six-month average, indicating a softening job market [3][4] - Government payrolls present a mixed picture, with federal government down due to cuts, while state and local government is up, potentially due to education workers returning [2] - Payroll revisions were surprisingly positive, contrasting with expectations of a downward revision [8] - Overstated payroll figures raise concerns about underlying weakness in the job market [7] Economic Outlook - The payroll data validates a broader economic slowdown, consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession [11][12] - Market valuations may be disconnected from the economic slowdown, requiring caution [12] - Potential for a stimulative bill from Washington D C, could be conducive to risk assets [9] Corporate Impact - Corporate profit margins and reactions are crucial to watch, with the impact still unfolding [6][8] - Layoff environment remains benign, but its sustainability needs monitoring [8] Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates in September and potentially later this year [10]