Group 1: ADP Private Payroll Data - The November ADP private payroll report indicates a loss of 32,000 jobs, marking the fourth negative figure in the past six months [2][3] - The estimate for job growth was 40,000, showing a significant miss in expectations [3] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in small businesses, which shed 120,000 jobs, while medium and large businesses added 51,000 and 39,000 jobs respectively [3][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The job losses were mainly in the goods-producing sector, which lost 19,000 jobs, and the service-producing sector, which lost 13,000 jobs [3] - Specific sectors such as education, health services, and hospitality were leading the job losses, while manufacturing and professional business services also saw declines [4][5] Group 3: Wage Trends - Wages for job stayers increased by 4.4%, a slight decrease from the previous month, while wages for job changers fell to 6.3% [5] Group 4: Economic Context - The current job market weakness is attributed to challenges faced by small businesses, including the impact of tariffs and inflation [6][11] - Small firms, which employ 44% of U.S. workers, are experiencing hiring freezes and attrition rather than active layoffs [9][10] - The cumulative effect of price increases over the past five years has contributed to the affordability crisis, complicating hiring decisions for small businesses [13][14] Group 5: Future Outlook - The economic path forward is seen as dependent on consumer demand and investment in AI, with potential for small firm hiring to rebound if high-income consumers continue to drive GDP growth [15][16] - Small businesses are more vulnerable to economic shifts compared to larger firms, particularly in adapting to tariffs and rising interest rates [17][18]

We are getting some numbers that are pretty important right now. We're going to be looking at the ADP private payroll data. It's just out.Steve Leeman joins us with those numbers. >> Numbers. What a what a what a thought.Fantastic. ADP saying that private payrolls grew by 42,000 in the month of October. Uh with a decent split when it comes to by sector.Goods producing up 9,000, service providing up 33,000. This is a question. Is this the new normal we have to get used to.Is a relatively lackluster number th ...

Employment Data Analysis - ADP private payroll data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly lower than the estimated increase of 45,000 [1] - The August data was revised down by 57,000 from an increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000, reflecting a new growth rate in the job market [2] - Small businesses experienced a decrease of 40,000 jobs, medium businesses decreased by 20,000 jobs, while large businesses increased by 33,000 jobs [3] - Leisure and hospitality sector saw a decline of 19,000 jobs [3] - Job stayers experienced a wage increase of 45%, while job changers saw an increase of 66%, down from 71% in August [3][4] Economic Indicators and Trends - The report indicates a slowdown in hiring momentum compared to the beginning of the year [8] - Initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a low-fire jobs market [10] - Strong GDP growth in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending, raises questions about its sustainability for labor market growth [10][11][12] - Ten-year Treasury yield experienced a slight decrease, reaching 416%, then 410%, a drop of six basis points [13] Data and Methodology - ADP rebenchmarks its data annually to align with the BLS data, which serves as a near census of US workers covered by employment insurance [6][7] - The BLS relies on survey data from the CES survey, while ADP uses an independent measure [18] - The Fed is known to access ADP data with more granularity [15][16] Government Shutdown Impact - A government shutdown would not directly affect ADP's next report, as it does not rely on survey data [17] - Potential layoffs in the government sector could impact private sector employment, particularly among contractors [26]

Payroll Analysis - Initial market reaction to headline payroll numbers may be overstated, requiring deeper analysis [1][4][5] - Private payrolls show a slowdown, below 68,000 and the six-month average, indicating a softening job market [3][4] - Government payrolls present a mixed picture, with federal government down due to cuts, while state and local government is up, potentially due to education workers returning [2] - Payroll revisions were surprisingly positive, contrasting with expectations of a downward revision [8] - Overstated payroll figures raise concerns about underlying weakness in the job market [7] Economic Outlook - The payroll data validates a broader economic slowdown, consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession [11][12] - Market valuations may be disconnected from the economic slowdown, requiring caution [12] - Potential for a stimulative bill from Washington D C, could be conducive to risk assets [9] Corporate Impact - Corporate profit margins and reactions are crucial to watch, with the impact still unfolding [6][8] - Layoff environment remains benign, but its sustainability needs monitoring [8] Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates in September and potentially later this year [10]