Core Thesis - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is positioned for significant upside due to both company-specific and macroeconomic factors, with a current share price of $13.36 and P/E ratios of 133.67 (trailing) and 62.89 (forward) [1][2] Company-Specific Developments - The company has not experienced the same multi-hundred percent returns as other steel companies over the past five years, creating an asymmetric investment opportunity [2] - A potential strategic investment from POSCO, estimated at a 10% to 20% stake, could enhance the balance sheet and validate Cleveland-Cliffs' vertically integrated U.S. steel model [3] - Management has taken steps to improve margins by idling or permanently closing at least six low-margin facilities, with further rationalization expected [4] Macro Factors - Tariffs are boosting domestic pricing power, while a changing interest rate environment could ease Cleveland-Cliffs' debt burden, especially with potential rate cuts anticipated before 2026 [5] - Demand-side factors, such as interest-free or subsidized auto financing, are expected to support vehicle production and increase steel intensity, aligning with the company's focus on higher-value markets [5] Future Outlook - Options activity post-May may confirm improving fundamentals, with a reasonable upside target of $20 under pessimistic assumptions and a potential move above $30 in a favorable macro and execution scenario [6] - A pro-manufacturing policy backdrop could further amplify gains for Cleveland-Cliffs [6] - The thesis on Cleveland-Cliffs shares similarities with a previous bullish thesis on Steel Dynamics, emphasizing balance sheet repair and macro tailwinds [8]