We come in hotter than anticipated with the PPI for final demand up half a percent, the same as in December. The forecast was for a 3/10 rise. Take out food and energy and we're up 8/10 after 7/10 last month and take out trade.To that end, you're up 3/10. That one's down just a little bit. Last month we saw a big rise in trade services and that is not happening this month on a year over year basis.Headline 2.9% X Food and energy is 3.6% and X Food and energy trade 3.4%. The core rate, the 3.6% is a signific ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.86, ending a two-day winning streak, primarily influenced by a decline in NVIDIA shares which fell over 5% despite a positive earnings report [1] - The index is now near the lower half of the 6,800–7,000 range, indicating a stagnant market performance over recent weeks [2] Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The VIX Volatility Index increased to 18.62, suggesting that traders are seeking more protection against market fluctuations [2] Economic Indicators - A delayed producer price index (PPI) report is expected to be released, with analysts forecasting a 0.3% monthly growth, which is a key measure of wholesale inflation [3] - The S&P 500 is projected to experience a 0.4% loss for February, reflecting a challenging month for tech stocks amid concerns over AI disruption [3] Futures and Market Predictions - S&P 500 futures were reported at 6,904.75, down by 15.25 points or 0.22%, indicating continued bearish sentiment in the market [4] - The market's recent performance aligns with predictions made by Polymarket participants, who anticipated a downward trend [4]

Group 1 - Investors are returning to the market at more attractive prices after taking profits from last week's historic high, recognizing that key bullish fundamentals such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and U.S. debt issues remain intact [1] - Concerns regarding Federal Reserve policy are creating headwinds for further market gains, particularly after the nomination of Kevin Warsh, which has led to a stall in buying and profit-taking among traders [2] - A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report has raised concerns that the Fed may not cut interest rates as aggressively, undermining the bullish narrative that supported gold prices throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - Without a solid support base, any attempts at price rallies in the gold market are likely to fail, indicating that investors may not have learned from the recent sell-off [4] - The trend remains upward according to the swing chart, as long as the December bottom at $4274.02 is not violated, with the break under the 50-day moving average at $4499.83 showing that investors respect this indicator as both support and a trend indicator [5]

Core Insights - US producer prices increased at a slightly faster pace in November, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - Retail sales surpassed expectations, suggesting that American consumers remained resilient towards the end of the year [1] Producer Prices - The producer price index for final demand rose by 0. [1] Retail Sales - Retail sales data exceeded forecasts, reinforcing the notion of consumer strength despite persistent price pressures upstream [1]

Group 1 - The country's consumer-price index increased by 0.7% year-over-year last month [1] - The producer-price index experienced a decline of 2.2% [1]

Core Insights - U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, indicating that domestic businesses may be absorbing some of the tariffs on imports [2][3] - The producer price index (PPI) for final demand decreased by 0.1% in August after a revised 0.7% increase in July, contrary to economists' expectations of a 0.3% rise [4][10] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage-point, reflecting concerns over softening domestic demand and a struggling labor market [3][4] Price Movements - A 0.2% drop in service prices contributed to the overall decline in the PPI, with trade services margins decreasing by 1.7% [6] - Prices for goods edged up by 0.1%, with food prices also rising by 0.1%, driven by significant increases in wholesale beef (6.0%) and coffee (6.9%) prices [9][10] - Excluding food and energy, producer goods prices rose by 0.3%, indicating some pass-through effects from tariffs [10] Labor Market Concerns - Weakness in the labor market has raised concerns about economic stagnation, with the government estimating 911,000 fewer jobs created in the past year than previously thought [11] - Job growth nearly stalled in August, with the economy shedding jobs in June for the first time in over four years [11]

Group 1 - Bond traders are preparing for a significant US inflation report that could impact expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts starting this month and extending into 2026 [1][2] - Recent soft jobs data and tame producer-price figures have led traders to anticipate a quarter-point reduction at the Fed's upcoming meeting, with potential for two more cuts by year-end [1][3] - The market has shifted to favor a scenario where rates could be slashed below neutral levels to stimulate growth and avert a recession [1][2] Group 2 - There has been a notable change in trader sentiment, as they previously hesitated to bet on significant easing due to persistent inflation concerns [2] - The upcoming consumer-price index report is expected to show a core annual reading above the Fed's target, increasing scrutiny on inflation [2][3] - A slowing jobs market has led to expectations of a more aggressive rate-cutting trajectory, with economists now predicting a quarter-point cut at each of the remaining three meetings this year [3][4] Group 3 - A report indicated that producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, contributing to a drop in yields on two-year Treasuries, which are closely linked to Fed policy outlook [4] - The unexpected drop in producer prices did not hinder expectations for Fed easing, although components affecting personal consumption expenditures were less dovish [4]

Market Overview - European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory as investors await the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate decision and update [1] - The U.K.'s FTSE index is projected to open 0.13% higher, Germany's DAX 0.14% lower, France's CAC 40 flat, and Italy's FTSE MIB slightly lower [2] Economic Indicators - The ECB is not expected to change its key deposit facility rate, which remains at 2% [2] - Market participants are focused on the ECB's macroeconomic projections for the euro area and the global economy [2] - In the U.S., S&P 500 futures were flat as the market anticipates the August consumer price index (CPI) data [3] - Economists expect the CPI to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, leading to an annual gain of 2.9% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to increase by 0.3% from July and 3.1% year-over-year [3] - The producer price index (PPI) showed an unexpected decline of 0.1% month-over-month, with a 12-month increase of 2.6% [3] Regional Market Performance - Japan's Nikkei 225 index reached a record high, reflecting gains seen on Wall Street [4]

Core Insights - Bitcoin briefly reached $114,000 following cooler-than-expected PPI data, raising speculation about the sustainability of this rally [1] - Key support levels for Bitcoin are identified at $110,600, $107,500–$106,800, and $104,000–$100,000, while resistance levels are at $112,775, $113,700–$114,600, $116,000, and $118,300 [2] - The market is expected to trade between $106,800–$118,300 unless there are significant surprises from CPI or FOMC [2] - A broader market rally for altcoins is contingent on Bitcoin breaking the $120,000–$125,000 range and Ethereum surpassing its all-time high [3] - The recent PPI data showed a 0.1% month-over-month drop, contrasting with the expected growth of 0.3%, and an annual change of 2.6% year-over-year compared to a forecast of 3.3% [4] - Bitcoin liquidations in the past 24 hours amounted to $37.95 million, with short liquidations at $34.96 million due to traders closing short positions amid the price spike [5]

Core Insights - Oracle's stock is experiencing a significant premarket increase of over 30% following earnings reports, which is unusual for a large company [8] - The company has made ambitious projections for its cloud infrastructure revenue, expecting it to rise from $10 billion last year to $18 billion this year, and reaching $144 billion by 2030 [8] - Oracle's remaining performance obligations have surged to $455 billion, marking a 359% year-over-year increase [8] - The company's MultiCloud revenue has skyrocketed by 1529% in Q1, indicating rapid growth expectations [8] Financial Performance - Oracle reported earnings that were lower than both consensus and whisper numbers, but the focus has shifted to its future projections [8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a headline PPI of -0.1% against a consensus of 0.3%, which may influence future monetary policy [8] Market Context - Positive money flows were noted in major tech stocks such as Alphabet, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Tesla, while Apple and Amazon saw negative flows [7] - The article highlights the importance of understanding money flows in ETFs like SPY and QQQ for investment strategies [8] Economic Indicators - The article discusses the implications of inflation data from China and its impact on U.S. investors, given the significant import relationship [6] - It also mentions the potential for a 50 basis points rate cut, depending on upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [8]