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华安证券:给予云铝股份买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-04-25 06:30
Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has met expectations for Q1 2025 performance, with profits expected to further recover, and a "buy" rating has been assigned to the company [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yun Aluminum achieved total operating revenue of 14.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.974 billion yuan, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The sales gross margin was 9.96%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.36 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Conditions - The average price of alumina in Q1 2025 was 3,863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the domestic average price of alumina was 3,090 yuan/ton, and by April 24, it had dropped to 2,895 yuan/ton, indicating a downward trend that may support profit recovery for the company [2] Production and Pricing - The average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99% in Q1 2025, compared to approximately 81% in the same period last year, driven by improved electricity supply [3] - The average domestic spot price for aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,455 yuan/ton, a 7.22% increase year-on-year, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.218 billion yuan, 7.306 billion yuan, and 8.214 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [4]