跨期套利跟踪 2025/08/21 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -260 -280 -280 -310 理论价差 496 891 1294 1698 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -20 -35 -40 -45 理论价差 214 335 455 576 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -65 -90 -115 理论价差 214 329 443 558 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -85 -70 -40 -20 理论价差 209 314 419 525 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -270 -30 180 420 锡 5-1 价差 2810 理论价差 5556 期现套利跟踪 2025/08/21 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 155 -105 理论价差 452 850 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 125 105 理论价差 188 318 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 125 105 ...

Clearly the timing was a surprise. Another surprise here is that this did not exclude goods in transit Joe. What do we know so far.We know we just got a heck of a lot more tariffs in our story today. We quoted a michigan state professor who is focused on supply chains and said, if you count everything that just got listed in inclusions for new tariffs, it's six times more than the total that we saw in the 2018 time period. So this this is a massive expansion of what is actually covered.I think importantly f ...

The raw mineral to make aluminum (bauxite) is very common. But smelting is energy intensive.So: production of aluminum reflects political will and ability to execute on manufacturing.Again, China is #1 by far, but India is #2. https://t.co/SURTDLfqfI ...

Summary of China Hongqiao's 1H25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Hongqiao (1378.HK) - **Period**: 1H25 Key Financial Metrics - **Net Profit**: Rmb12.4 billion, up 35% YoY, down 6% HoH [1] - **Total NPAT**: Rmb13.6 billion, up 35% YoY [1] - **Total Revenue**: Up 10% YoY, down 2% HoH [1] - **Gross Profit Margin**: 26%, up 1ppt YoY, down 4ppt HoH [1] - **Operating Profit**: Rmb18.1 billion, up 21% YoY, down 16% HoH [1] - **Recurring Net Income**: Rmb14.7 billion, up 30% YoY [1] - **Interim Dividend**: No dividend declared, compared to HK$0.59/share in 1H24 [1] Aluminum Segment Performance - **Aluminum Revenue**: Up 5% YoY [2] - **Aluminum Sales Volume**: 3.3 million tons, up 3% YoY, down 3% HoH [2] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Rmb18,178/ton, up 3% YoY, up 1% HoH [2] - **Unit Cost**: Rmb13,639/ton, up 2% YoY, up 1% HoH [2] - **Gross Profit per ton**: Rmb4,540/ton, up 6% YoY, up 1% HoH [2] - **Total Aluminum Gross Profit**: Rmb15.0 billion, up 9% YoY, down 2% HoH [2] Alumina Segment Performance - **Alumina Revenue**: Up 28% YoY [3] - **Alumina Sales Volume**: 6.4 million tons, up 16% YoY, up 18% HoH [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Rmb3,244/ton, up 10% YoY, down 17% HoH [3] - **Unit Cost**: Rmb2,310/ton, up 5% YoY, up 4% HoH [3] - **Gross Profit per ton**: Rmb934/ton, up 25% YoY, down 45% HoH [3] - **Total Alumina Gross Profit**: Rmb5.9 billion, up 44% YoY, down 35% HoH [3] Cash Flow and Gearing - **Net Gearing**: 28%, down 3ppt YoY, up 6ppt HoH [4] - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**: Rmb22 billion, up 56% YoY, up 13% HoH [4] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Rmb12.4 billion, up 43% YoY, down 2% HoH [7] Shareholder Returns and Valuation - **Share Repurchase Plan**: Proposed total amount not less than HK$3 billion, reflecting confidence in long-term value [7] - **Current Trading Metrics**: 8.7x 2025E P/E, 1.7x 2025E P/B [7] - **Target Price**: HK$25.20, implying a 7.8% expected share price return and 7.4% expected dividend yield [5][14] Risks - **Major Risks**: 1. Cost and capex overruns [15] 2. Higher-than-expected capacity addition in the industry [15] 3. Significant slowdown in the Chinese economy [15] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain as a Top Pick, with further insights expected post-results presentation on 18th Aug [1][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum Industry in China - **Market Dynamics**: The China aluminum market is transitioning into a new era where global high-cost producers are setting price support, while China's cost advantages are expected to widen due to lower power tariffs and coal costs [1][36][60]. Price Forecasts - **Long-term Price Objective**: The long-term price forecast for China aluminum has been raised to RMB20,000/ton from RMB19,000/ton, with a medium-term price floor expected at RMB19,800/ton (US$2,400/ton) [1][36][61]. - **2025 Price Forecast**: The aluminum price forecast for 2025 has been increased to RMB20,500/ton, reflecting a tight market and low inventory levels [1][25][61]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Demand Growth**: China aluminum demand is projected to grow at 2-3% YoY in 2H25-26E, driven by strong grid demand and automotive lightweighting, despite a slowdown in the property and solar sectors [2][24][29]. - **Supply Constraints**: China's aluminum production capacity is nearing a cap of 45 million tons, with operating capacity already at 44.2 million tons. Future supply growth will increasingly rely on imports [1][26][35]. - **Global Supply**: There is a global pipeline of 7.5 million tons of new capacity, but ramp-up may be slower than expected due to power and infrastructure uncertainties, particularly in Indonesia [2][27]. Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: Hongqiao and Chalco are identified as top picks due to their strong cash flows, decent dividend yields (8% for Hongqiao, 5% for Chalco), and cost advantages [3][62]. - **Earnings Estimates**: - Hongqiao's 2025 EPS has been raised by 10% to RMB2.63, with a price objective increased to HKD26 from HKD20 [3][61]. - Chalco's 2025 EPS has been raised by 14% to RMB0.76, with price objectives for Chalco-H and Chalco-A increased to HKD8.0 and RMB9.0, respectively [3][6][61]. Cost Structure and Margins - **Cost Advantage**: China's C1 cash cost is 5% lower than the global average, with expectations for this advantage to widen in 2025 due to lower power costs [1][36][45]. - **Margin Expectations**: The expected margin for low-cost integrated producers like Hongqiao and Chalco is projected to be RMB3,000-4,000/ton, significantly above the long-term average of RMB1,000-2,000/ton [1][24][60]. Risks and Considerations - **Policy Uncertainty**: The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has led to policy uncertainty, which may affect bauxite prices and alumina costs [2][33]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: While recycled aluminum production is increasing, it is not expected to offset the structural deficit in the near term [28]. Conclusion - The aluminum market in China is characterized by tight supply, strong demand, and favorable cost dynamics for key producers. The outlook for Hongqiao and Chalco remains positive, supported by strong cash flows and dividend yields, amidst a backdrop of rising aluminum prices and constrained supply.

Aluminum fell and copper was little changed as metals markets opene on a cautious note before Trump’s crunch talks with Zelenskiy https://t.co/Bn9hPLiPql ...

Century Aluminum TodayCENXCentury Aluminum$23.00 -0.82 (-3.44%) 52-Week Range$11.63▼$25.39P/E Ratio19.86Price Target$24.67Add to WatchlistA powerful shift in U.S. industrial sector policy is creating a uniquely profitable environment for domestic manufacturers, and few companies are as directly positioned to benefit as Century Aluminum NASDAQ: CENX. The company’s stock has gained over 60% in the last year, signaling that investors are taking note of its unique strategic advantages. While the global aluminu ...

Australian miner South32 will take a $372 million impairment on its aluminum project in Mozambique that it said could shut next year, after it failed to secure an affordable energy supply https://t.co/kkotlI7b3l ...

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX) shows a significant improvement in earnings outlook, making it an attractive investment option as analysts continue to raise earnings estimates for the company [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The upward trend in earnings estimate revisions indicates growing analyst optimism regarding Century Aluminum's earnings prospects, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [2]. - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has a strong track record, with Zacks 1 Ranked stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 2008 [3]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter is $0.73 per share, reflecting a +58.7% change from the previous year [6]. - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Century has increased by 23.73%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [6]. - For the full year, the expected earnings are $2.00 per share, which is a -39.2% change from the prior year, but the consensus estimate has increased by 12.36% due to positive revisions [7][8]. Zacks Rank and Performance - Century Aluminum has achieved a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating promising estimate revisions that can help investors make informed decisions [9]. - Research indicates that stocks with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) tend to significantly outperform the S&P 500 [9]. Stock Performance - Century shares have increased by 11.1% over the past four weeks, suggesting investor confidence in the company's earnings growth prospects [10].

While "the trend is your friend" when it comes to short-term investing or trading, timing entries into the trend is a key determinant of success. And increasing the odds of success by making sure the sustainability of a trend isn't easy.Often, the direction of a stock's price movement reverses quickly after taking a position in it, making investors incur a short-term capital loss. So, it's important to ensure that there are enough factors -- such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate revisions, ...