Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Whil ...

UKRAINE - 2021/10/15: In this photo illustration, Alcoa Corporation logo is seen on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesAlcoa (NYSE:AA), one of the largest aluminum producers globally, has seen a rebound in 2025 in conjunction with rising aluminum prices and a tighter global supply. Shares have moved back toward the mid-$30s, aided by improving cash flow and cost management; however, uncertainties linger r ...

Core Insights - Investors are showing a bullish stance on Alcoa (NYSE: AA), with significant options activity indicating potential upcoming developments [1] - The overall sentiment among large traders is evenly split, with 50% bullish and 50% bearish positions [2] - Whales have targeted a price range for Alcoa between $25.0 and $37.0 over the last three months based on options volume and open interest [3] Options Activity - A total of 8 options trades for Alcoa were identified, with 7 calls amounting to $632,647 and 1 put totaling $113,460 [2] - The volume and open interest metrics provide insights into liquidity and investor interest in Alcoa's options, particularly within the $25.0 to $37.0 strike price range over the past 30 days [4] Market Overview - Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company, recognized as the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and the eighth-largest aluminum producer [11] - The company has a consensus target price of $37.33 from three market analysts, with varying ratings from different firms [13][14] - Current trading volume for Alcoa is 5,301,441, with the stock price up by 3.13% to $33.73, indicating potential overbought conditions [16]

China has slashed its annual output growth target for key non-ferrous metals over 2025 and 2026, underscoring a policy shift from volume expansion to efficiency and sustainability. Production of the 10 main non-ferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, is now expected to rise by an average of 1.5% a year in the period, according to a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement on Sunday. That compares with the 5% pace set in the previous two-year blueprint. Most Read from Bloomberg Th ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a 15-month high due to Freeport's announcement of force majeure at its Grasberg mine and a significant reduction in 2026 production guidance [1][3] - As of September 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,336.50 per ton, up $362.00 or 3.63% [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan expects a 4% decrease in copper sales volume for Q3, raising concerns about tightening supply [3] Group 2 - The Grasberg Block Cave mine experienced a fatal landslide on September 8, leading to a suspension of operations, with a phased restart not expected until mid-2026 [3] - The market has absorbed some supply tightness, but Freeport's statement indicates a potential 35% reduction in 2026 output compared to previous estimates, contributing to a 3.9% increase in copper prices [3] - The strong US dollar has put pressure on the market, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3] Group 3 - In the US, spot aluminum premiums reached a historical high of $0.74 per pound (equivalent to $1,631 per ton), nearly doubling since the increase of aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% [3] - Minsur, a Peruvian mining company, plans to start tunnel blasting for an underground copper mine in October, with an estimated cost of $500 million as part of its Justa mine expansion [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The largest position in the gold index is held by Pneumont, which constitutes 13-14% of the GDX, and is actively selling non-core assets to raise cash [2] - Pneumont has authorized a $6 billion buyback, indicating strong operational leverage within gold companies [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) targets for 2026 are expected to improve significantly, even with a potential 10% pullback in gold prices [3] Group 2: Performance of Gold Miners - Gold miners are preferred over gold itself due to their performance lagging behind gold prices during initial rallies, but they have recently shown a beta of two to three times relative to gold [3][4] - The character of the gold rally has changed, becoming less dependent on traditional metrics, suggesting a more independent momentum [4][5] - The current move in gold is described as "ungoldlike," with thematic drivers influencing the market, including China's gold reserves reaching ten-year highs [5][6] Group 3: Other Metals and Market Dynamics - Other metals such as copper, aluminum, and platinum are also showing signs of life, prompting consideration for additional allocations in these areas [7] - Copper's volatility is attributed to market technicals, but it follows a similar three-year rally trend as gold, driven by supply-demand dynamics [8] - Integrated miners like BHP and Rio Tinto are identified as the best ways to play the copper market, with geopolitical factors contributing to potential disruptions [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 24, 2025 [1][3][4] Group 3: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 80000, LME 9894, ratio 8.11; March price: domestic 79920, LME 9967, ratio 8.02; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.10, profit - 118.34; Spot export profit - 117.86 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 21880, LME 2917, ratio 7.50; March price: domestic 21865, LME 2874, ratio 5.95; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.53, profit - 3003.69 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20680, LME 2642, ratio 7.83; March price: domestic 20695, LME 2642, ratio 7.83; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.38, profit - 1462.88 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 119750, LME 15047, ratio 7.96; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.17, profit - 1446.69 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16950, LME 1949, ratio 8.71; March price: domestic 17110, LME 1991, ratio 11.03; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.82, profit - 211.89 [3] Group 4: Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 270, - 270, - 280, - 290 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 503, 904, 1314, 1724 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 235, - 215, - 195, - 175 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 213, 333, 452, 572 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 65, - 55, - 60, - 50 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, 562 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 40, - 15, - 10, 50 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 531 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 490, - 300, - 60, 170 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread 560, theoretical spread 5597 [4] Group 5: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 215 and - 55 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 419 and 823 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 200 and - 35 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 154 and 281 [4] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 175 and 135 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 181 and 294 [5] Group 6: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (triple - continuous) are 3.66, 3.86, 4.67, 0.95, 1.21, 0.78 respectively; London (triple - continuous) are 3.45, 3.78, 4.98, 0.91, 1.32, 0.69 respectively [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Commodities - **Key Focus**: Oil and Natural Gas Markets, Commodities Price Forecasts Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand expanded by 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd) year-over-year in September, with visible global liquids stocks rising by 72 million barrels (mb) [2] 2. **Ukraine's Strategic Shift**: Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, indicating a strategic shift that could impact global energy markets [1] 3. **Fed's Rate-Cutting Cycle**: The Federal Reserve's cutting cycle began, historically leading to positive returns in commodities. Commodities averaged +15% returns nine months after similar cycles in 1995 and 2024 [5] 4. **Recession Risks**: Recession risks are elevated at 40%, with potential negative impacts on commodities if offsetting Chinese stimulus is not present [5] 5. **Inflation Concerns**: The risk of renewed inflation is high at 45%, particularly in the US, which may affect commodity prices [5] 6. **Natural Gas Storage Trends**: Weekly storage injections for natural gas are expected to be in the range of 70-90 Bcf through mid-October, with a preliminary estimate of a 73 Bcf injection for the upcoming report [9] 7. **Base vs. Precious Metals Performance**: There is a notable divergence in performance between base and precious metals following the first rate cut, with precious metals generally performing better [9] 8. **US Crude Output Resilience**: US crude output has remained resilient, averaging close to 300 kbd year-over-year from January to August 2025, with no significant pullback in operator activity [12] 9. **Permian Basin Activity**: Permitting data shows no signs of a slowdown in activity in the Permian Basin, with permit volumes 6% higher than the previous year [12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Commodity Open Interest**: The estimated value of global commodity market open interest surged to a 2025 year-to-date high, increasing by 4.1% week-over-week to $1.59 trillion [11] 2. **Natural Gas Market Dynamics**: Solar energy generation is significantly impacting realized and forecast gas-fired power generation, especially during the shoulder season [9] 3. **Metals Market Trends**: Industrial metals are lagging behind precious metals, with base metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel consistently underperforming compared to copper [9] 4. **Price Forecasts**: Forecasts for WTI crude and Brent crude prices are projected to decline to $57 and $61 per barrel respectively by Q4 2025 [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global commodities market.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper fundamentals show resilience, with downstream开工 rising and weakening scrap substitution. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, with inventory expected to decline in September. Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices are moving down in a volatile way. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. - Nickel has weak short - term fundamentals, with high - level production and weak demand. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, but there are price - supporting policies [7]. - Stainless steel has weak fundamentals. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand. The short - term macro - situation follows the anti - involution expectation [7]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, while demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations. The domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally. The short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. With supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the scrap substitution effect weakened. The internal - external positive arbitrage has space [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: Aluminum prices declined slightly. The downstream开工 improved, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: Zinc prices moved down in a volatile way. Supply from overseas mines increased, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. The LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, and demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally, and demand is mainly rigid [12]. - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng [16]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Market Data**: Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. Supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand affect the market [18]. - **Strategy**: The price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18].

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) is focusing on diversifying its mineral output beyond gold, aiming to double gold production by 2030 and establish a domestic rare-earths supply chain as part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative [1][5] Financial Performance - Ma'aden reported a 73% increase in first-half net profit to SR3.47 billion ($920 million), primarily driven by phosphate production [2] - The company plans to invest approximately $2.5 billion annually over the next five years to expand its operations in copper, gold, and rare earths [2] Strategic Initiatives - The strategy emphasizes organic growth first, followed by selective mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] - Ma'aden is utilizing Saudi Aramco's subsurface and geological datasets to enhance exploration efficiency, particularly for copper [2] International Expansion - Ma'aden's international arm, Manara, is tasked with identifying selective investments in copper and battery materials while avoiding overpayment [4] - The only disclosed deal since Manara's launch is a 10% stake in Vale Base Metals, indicating a cautious approach to international investments [3] Domestic Developments - The company is intensifying exploration efforts within Saudi Arabia, supported by recent reforms that have modernized mining laws and tendering processes [4] - Ma'aden's integrated infrastructure, including ports and power, provides a competitive advantage in the region [4] Future Outlook - If successful, Ma'aden could position Saudi Arabia as a Gulf hub for critical minerals, expanding its exports to include gold, copper, and rare earths in addition to phosphate and aluminum [5]