Profitability Cycle
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With ROIC at 19-Year Highs, Is CCL Entering a New Profitability Cycle?
ZACKS· 2026-01-12 15:41
Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is experiencing a potential inflection point in long-term profitability, with a reported return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeding 13% in fiscal 2025, the highest in nearly two decades, indicating structural improvements alongside cyclical recovery [1][10] Financial Performance - The expansion of ROIC is attributed to effective pricing discipline and cost control, with yields increasing by over 5.5% year-over-year in 2025, driven by strong demand and higher onboard spending [2] - Unit costs rose at a slower pace than anticipated, despite inflation and dry-dock expenses, leading to significant margin improvements and the highest operating income per berth in almost 20 years [2] Balance Sheet Strength - Carnival has successfully reduced debt by over $10 billion from peak levels, achieving an investment-grade leverage ratio and significantly lowering interest expenses, which enhances ROIC by decreasing the capital base while increasing net operating profit [3] - This trend is expected to continue into 2026 as refinancing benefits are realized [3] Future Outlook - Management anticipates ongoing same-ship yield growth, stable demand across regions, and disciplined capital allocation, including dividends and selective reinvestment [4] - Despite macro risks and capacity growth concerns, the combination of stronger pricing power, tighter cost management, and a healthier balance sheet suggests Carnival may be entering a more sustainable profitability cycle [4] Competitive Landscape - Among competitors, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) has shown a strong post-pandemic profitability rebound with industry-leading margins, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is earlier in its ROIC recovery, facing higher leverage and interest expenses [5][6] - Carnival's notable 19-year-high ROIC reflects a balanced approach of yield growth, cost discipline, and balance-sheet repair, distinguishing it from peers reliant on new capacity or premium pricing alone [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - CCL shares have increased by 14.3% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average rise of 8.9% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.57X, significantly below the industry average of 17.88X, indicating potential undervaluation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 12.4% for 2025 and 9.1% for 2026, with EPS estimates for fiscal 2025 having increased in the past 30 days [14]
Roku's Improving Margins Signal a Turnaround: Is the Stock a Buy Now?
ZACKS· 2025-12-12 17:25
Core Insights - Roku is entering a stronger phase of its turnaround with improving margins and disciplined execution, leading to reshaped performance expectations [1] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth and profitability improvements in the upcoming quarters [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Roku's platform revenues grew by 17% year over year, gross profit reached $525 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 19% [1] - Fourth-quarter revenues are expected to be $1.35 billion, a 12% increase year over year, with platform revenues projected to grow by 15% and platform gross margin at 52% [2] - Full-year projections include $4.11 billion in platform revenue and $395 million in adjusted EBITDA [2] Market Position - Roku remains the leading TV operating system in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, with a significant market share that exceeds the combined share of its closest competitors [5] - The Zacks consensus estimate for fourth-quarter streaming hours is 38.77 billion, indicating a 13.7% year-over-year growth [5] Advertising Growth - Roku's advertising engine is strengthening, with automated, data-driven ad buying expanding across the platform [7] - Approximately 90% of advertisers using Roku in Q3 were new to the platform, indicating fresh spending from performance marketers and small businesses [9] - Integrations with third-party demand-side platforms, including Amazon's advertising ecosystem, are broadening demand and improving campaign performance [9] Subscription Growth - Roku's streaming services distribution segment is seeing momentum, supported by Premium Subscriptions and the acquisition of Frndly TV [10] - The launch of the Howdy service, priced at $2.99 per month, expands Roku's reach and promotes efficient subscriber acquisition [11] Valuation and Performance Trends - Roku's valuation is attractive compared to the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry and the broader Consumer Discretionary sector, trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.98X [12] - Over the past six months, Roku delivered a 42.9% return, significantly outperforming the industry's 8.3% decline and the sector's 3.1% drop [14] Competitive Advantage - Roku can monetize high-margin owned inventories more efficiently than competitors like Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery, who face escalating content costs [17] - Roku's data-rich ecosystem positions it well to capture incremental ad spend while maintaining superior margin potential [17] Conclusion - Roku's strengthening margin profile, growing advertising engine, and expanding subscription ecosystem indicate a business regaining momentum at scale [18] - The improving fundamentals support a clear buy stance, making the stock a compelling opportunity for investors [18]
Monster Beverage: Buy This Global Energy Drink Champion With More Room To Run
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-05 14:01
Core Viewpoint - Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) is entering a new phase of profitability and global expansion that is not yet fully recognized by the market [1] Company Summary - The company is experiencing a cycle of increased profitability and is expanding its global presence [1] Market Recognition - The current market perception does not fully acknowledge the potential growth and profitability of Monster Beverage [1]