Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China property sector, but it indicates a continued pessimistic outlook for housing prices and suggests the need for government intervention to stimulate the market [4]. Core Insights - The latest China Housing survey shows a subdued intention to buy property, with 48% of respondents indicating no intention to purchase, up from 36% in September 2024 [7]. - There is a divergence in sentiment among cities, with stable purchase intentions in tier 1 cities (32% intention to buy) compared to declines in tier 2 (20%) and tier 3 cities (19%) [16]. - The survey indicates that 42% of respondents expect further declines in housing prices over the next 12 months, with 47% of homeowners reporting paper losses, particularly in tier 2 and 3 cities [4][9]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Sentiment - The intention to buy property has decreased, with a notable increase in respondents who do not plan to purchase [7]. - In tier 1 cities, purchase intentions have increased slightly, while tier 2 and 3 cities have seen declines [16]. Factors Influencing Purchase Confidence - The top three factors boosting household confidence to buy properties are job promotions/salary increments, lower mortgage rates, and lower down-payment requirements [3][23]. - The report suggests that interest rate cuts may be the most effective measure to improve confidence, with expectations of a 20-30 basis point cut for the remainder of 2025 [3]. Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - The survey indicates a continued pessimistic outlook for housing prices, with 42% of respondents anticipating further declines [4]. - Secondary listings across 50 cities have increased by 7.1% year-over-year, indicating a potential downward trend in property prices [29]. Government Intervention - The report highlights the need for government intervention through pro-growth policies, mortgage rate cuts, and financing support to stimulate the market [4]. - Project completion is identified as a critical priority for the government to restore confidence in new home sales [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies including China Resources Land, China Overseas Land, and Longfor Group, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [14][27][33]. Core Insights - Market sentiment in top-tier cities is described as tepid, with SOE developers reporting a 10-20% year-on-year growth in sales during the Golden Week, while POE developers experienced a decline [3][4]. - Subscriptions in 19 key cities increased by 6% year-on-year, although there was a week-on-week drop of 25% during the first five days of the Golden Week [4][3]. - Retail sales in key shopping malls showed a growth of 5-10% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [3][4]. - Leading indicators such as the Centaline asking price index and manager confidence index have softened, suggesting a moderation in the market [3][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Trends - SOE developers reported a double-digit year-on-year growth in subscriptions/sales, while POE developers saw a decline due to fewer launches [3][4]. - The overall sentiment among property agents in tier-1 cities is cautious, with homebuyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [3][4]. Retail Performance - Key shopping mall landlords reported same-store tenant sales growth of 5-10% year-on-year, with luxury malls experiencing similar growth [3][4]. Leading Indicators - The Centaline secondary asking price index decreased from 21.9 to 21.3, and the manager confidence index dropped from 50.6 to 49.6, reflecting a return to levels seen in September 2024 [3][5]. Stock Recommendations - The report favors stocks with turnaround stories such as Longfor, Jinmao, and COPH, alongside fundamentally strong companies like CR Land and CR Mixc [3][14].