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高盛:中国市场的三件事
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-15 01:58
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - PPI deflation in China has deepened, with PPI inflation dropping to -3.6% year-on-year in June, marking the 33rd consecutive month of deflation [1][2] - The Chinese government is expected to implement incremental demand-side easing measures in the property market rather than large-scale stimulus, as long-term fundamentals do not support significant new apartment construction [4] - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases are anticipated to show solid performance, with Q2 real GDP growth forecasted at 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 5.1% [8] Summary by Sections PPI and CPI Trends - PPI inflation decreased from -3.3% in May to -3.6% in June, while CPI inflation increased slightly from -0.1% to +0.1% year-on-year [1][2] Property Market Outlook - Recent property data indicates a decline in house prices and home sales, leading to speculation about government stimulus; however, the report suggests that any measures will be modest and focused on renovation rather than new construction [4] Economic Data Expectations - Key macroeconomic indicators, including trade, credit, and GDP data, are expected to be released soon, with forecasts for trade and industrial production above consensus, while credit and retail sales forecasts are below consensus [8]