Fed Policy & Market Impact - The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut was largely expected, but the dovish messaging, highlighting concerns about labor market weakness and potential overstatement of non-farm payroll numbers by approximately 60,000 jobs, surprised the market [1] - The Fed acknowledged the need to start treasury bill purchases at $40 billion per month, signaling continued liquidity support, which is seen as positive for assets like gold and Bitcoin [1] - Equities reacted positively, with small caps and transports rising, indicating a shift towards cyclical, pro-inflation trades, while growth stocks underperformed value stocks [2] Bitcoin & Crypto - Bitcoin's chart looks weak, but there are buy signals, with expectations of a surge back to $100,000 if it can get above $93,000, and Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin [2] - The long-term view is that Bitcoin will benefit from the AI-driven hyper-productivity growth, as AI models compete with each other, diminishing moats and emphasizing adaptability, making Bitcoin a compelling large-cap growth investment [6][26] AI & Technology - The progress in AI models, particularly from GPT-4 to GPT-5, is based on advancements in reasoning and reinforcement learning, rather than solely on hardware, but the Blackwell deployment is crucial for visual language models and physical world applications like robotics and robo-taxis [3] - The consensus in San Francisco is that recursive self-improvement in AI will be reached in the next 2-4 years, leading to hyper-productivity and computers solving problems in energy and biology [5] - Open-source AI models are gaining traction, offering faster and cheaper solutions, but Blackwell chips provide a significant performance jump, potentially favoring closed-source models in the long run [5][6] Economic Transition & Investment Strategies - The US economy is transitioning from analog/electronic to digital, causing disruption and "shedding skin," with small business bankruptcies at a record high, but also creating opportunities for individuals to create income streams online [8] - The focus is shifting from software to hardware, with opportunities in energy, transportation, and small-cap companies making LiDAR and sensors, as the physical world is still essential to fuel technology [9] - The IPO market is expected to be historically active in the next 12-18 months, with companies like Anthropic, XAI, OpenAI, and SpaceX going public, requiring capital to build out physical infrastructure [8] Risks & Opportunities in 2026 - While a major recession is considered low probability, 20-30% market corrections are expected in the next 5 years due to events impacting profit margins and productivity [9] - A potential risk is the capex hole, where hyperscalers are spending heavily on infrastructure but not yet seeing corresponding revenue increases, potentially impacting valuations [9] - Embodied AI, starting with robo-taxis, is a major theme for the coming year, creating opportunities in hardware, batteries, and commodities like copper [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]

Welcome back. While a traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds has been one one of the most widespread investing strategies for decades, millennials are opting for a different approach. Leslie Picker here is here to tell us what that approach is.Leslie. Yeah, David. Apparently, stocks and bonds are for boomers.Millennials are way more invested in alternatives than the older cohorts. The generation with birthdays between 1981 and 1996 has about 20% of their portfolios allocated to alts areas like priv ...

Past valuation multiples of public equities are a very misleading metric for investors today.Not only do public equity valuations now have a monetary premium that didn't exist decades ago, but the actual companies are significantly more efficient, productive, and continue to grow at a pace previously thought impossible.Better companies + monetary premium = higher multiples ...

Singapore’s Temasek Holdings has invested more into public equities in the last 18 months than it traditionally has done, according to CEO Dilhan Pillay https://t.co/QWxGJDCnWj ...

Market Overview - Markets are at all-time highs, with public equities outperforming [1] - Individual investors are driving market performance, marking the rise of the retail investor [1] Event Details - The Independent Investor Summit is scheduled for September 12th in NYC, focusing on self-directed investors [1] - The summit will feature macro insights, market predictions, and actionable investment ideas [1] - Speakers include various public market investors such as @jvisserlabs, @ChrisCamillo, @ericjackson, @DariusDale42, @dgt10011, @MazzaDave [2] - The event is targeted towards those who believe retail investors are ahead of Wall Street [2]

Crypto Market & Public Equities - Discussion on public equities related to crypto [1] - Insights on bitcoin mining companies [1] - Analysis of the new wave of retail investment, exemplified by $OPEN [1] Regulatory Landscape & Government Involvement - Examination of the recent staking decision from the government [1] - Outlook on the US government potentially buying bitcoin [1] - Assessment of the government's relationship with stablecoins [1] Bitcoin & Market Cycles - Consideration of whether the 4-year cycle in the crypto market is over [1] Company Strategy & Potential Risks - Overview of VanEck's ongoing projects and developments [1] - Identification of potential risks in the crypto space [1] Other Notable Points - Mention of TEPCO, a Japanese utility company, and reasons for its stock surge [1]