Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the recent "stock-bond-currency triple kill" in overseas markets, driven by concerns over debt expansion and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the U.S.-Europe Greenland dispute and the Danish pension fund's withdrawal from U.S. Treasury investments [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury yields have seen significant increases, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.3% and the 30-year U.K. bond yield reaching 5.2%, indicating heightened market volatility and risk aversion [2] - Trump's recent statements at the Davos Forum have temporarily eased market concerns by ruling out military action regarding Greenland and announcing a framework agreement with Europe, which has led to a brief recovery in U.S. stock and bond markets [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that the U.S. fiscal deficit is likely to continue rising, with projections indicating a 40% increase in tax cuts by 2026 and a deficit rate potentially reaching 6.8%, reflecting a shift towards more permanent fiscal expansion [3] - Political dynamics in the U.S. are shifting, with both parties showing a consensus on fiscal expansion, which may lead to a sustained increase in the deficit regardless of electoral outcomes [3] - Geopolitical risks and tariff concerns are expected to persist, with Trump potentially using alternative tariff measures even if current ones are deemed illegal, indicating a long-term shift in the international order and increasing risks associated with U.S. debt [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that while there is a perception of potential debt crises in developed countries, the actual risk of default is low due to central banks' ability to issue currency, with crises more likely manifesting as currency depreciation and rising inflation expectations [4] - To mitigate debt risks, Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures aimed at lowering real interest rates, including government involvement in interest rate guidance and adjustments to debt issuance structures [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve employing quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control (YCC) to lower Treasury yields is considered low under current conditions, as historical precedents suggest such measures are typically reserved for zero or negative interest rate environments [4]