Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury market, and highlights the misinterpretations by the market regarding the underlying risks and economic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Turmoil - The recent turmoil in the global bond market has led to a "triple whammy" in the U.S. markets, triggered by geopolitical tensions and significant investment withdrawals, such as the Danish pension fund's exit from U.S. Treasuries [2]. - The market is experiencing liquidity shocks, with notable events like Trump's statements at the Davos Forum contributing to temporary market stabilization [2]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Risks - Short-term risks associated with U.S. Treasuries are deemed manageable; however, fundamental issues remain unresolved, with projections indicating that the deficit rate could rise to 6.8% due to reduced political motivation for fiscal tightening and increased supply-side investments [3]. - Long-term risks include potential tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions instigated by the U.S., which may undermine the perceived safety of U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 3: Policy Expectations - The article suggests that conventional monetary policy measures, such as Quantitative Easing (QE) or Yield Curve Control (YCC), are unlikely to be employed by the Federal Reserve to lower Treasury yields, especially in a non-war or non-zero interest rate environment [4]. - Trump may consider implementing "structural" financial repression measures to lower real interest rates as a response to debt risks, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [4].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 ☎欢迎交流：申万宏观 赵宇、陈达飞、赵伟 周度研究成果汇总 （1.24-1.30） 重点推介 热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ 1.全球债市恐慌再现，美国上演"股债汇三杀" 近期海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"，触发因素是美欧格陵兰争端、丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美债投 资、高市早苗提前选举。流动性冲击下，特朗普达沃斯论坛再度TACO，市场阶段性缓和。 2.美债短期风险可控，长期根本矛盾未解决 2026年美国紧财政政治动力已减弱下，减税、增加供给侧投资，令赤字率或上升至6.8%。关税风险、美 国引发的地缘风险或长期存在，美债或不再安全。 3.常规政策区间，不宜期待联储QE或YCC 为缓和债务风险，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施，压低实际利率。在非战争或非零利率状态下， 美联储极不可能通过QE或YCC压降美债利率。 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"速见系列" 第21期: 《1月FOMC例会解读与展望》 2 、"洞见系列" 第112期: 《美国通胀风险有多大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent panic in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the market has misinterpreted key economic signals and the implications of "big fiscal" policies [2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year yield reaching levels not seen since 2007, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment [2] - The article highlights that the market's reaction may be overblown, as economic fundamentals do not fully support such drastic yield increases [2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implications - The concept of "big fiscal" is explored, emphasizing that increased government spending could lead to long-term economic growth, countering the immediate panic in the bond market [2] - The article argues that the market has not adequately priced in the potential positive effects of fiscal stimulus on economic recovery [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a noted disconnect between market movements and underlying economic indicators, suggesting that investor sentiment may be overly influenced by short-term news rather than long-term trends [2] - The article calls for a reassessment of the current market outlook, encouraging investors to consider the broader economic context rather than reacting to immediate fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the recent "stock-bond-currency triple kill" in overseas markets, driven by concerns over debt expansion and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the U.S.-Europe Greenland dispute and the Danish pension fund's withdrawal from U.S. Treasury investments [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury yields have seen significant increases, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.3% and the 30-year U.K. bond yield reaching 5.2%, indicating heightened market volatility and risk aversion [2] - Trump's recent statements at the Davos Forum have temporarily eased market concerns by ruling out military action regarding Greenland and announcing a framework agreement with Europe, which has led to a brief recovery in U.S. stock and bond markets [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that the U.S. fiscal deficit is likely to continue rising, with projections indicating a 40% increase in tax cuts by 2026 and a deficit rate potentially reaching 6.8%, reflecting a shift towards more permanent fiscal expansion [3] - Political dynamics in the U.S. are shifting, with both parties showing a consensus on fiscal expansion, which may lead to a sustained increase in the deficit regardless of electoral outcomes [3] - Geopolitical risks and tariff concerns are expected to persist, with Trump potentially using alternative tariff measures even if current ones are deemed illegal, indicating a long-term shift in the international order and increasing risks associated with U.S. debt [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that while there is a perception of potential debt crises in developed countries, the actual risk of default is low due to central banks' ability to issue currency, with crises more likely manifesting as currency depreciation and rising inflation expectations [4] - To mitigate debt risks, Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures aimed at lowering real interest rates, including government involvement in interest rate guidance and adjustments to debt issuance structures [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve employing quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control (YCC) to lower Treasury yields is considered low under current conditions, as historical precedents suggest such measures are typically reserved for zero or negative interest rate environments [4]

Group 1: Overview of the "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies[1] - The bill includes tax cuts, increased spending on immigration enforcement, expanded defense spending, and cuts to welfare and renewable energy subsidies[1] - The overall deficit scale ranks among the highest since World War II, second only to the 1981 Reagan tax cuts when measured as a percentage of GDP[1] Group 2: Economic Effects - The bill is projected to moderately boost U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028, potentially reaching 0.8 percentage points[2] - The lowest 10% of income households may see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits, while the highest 10% could experience an average income increase of 2.3%[2] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced tax credits[2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bond Liquidity - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with manageable macroeconomic conditions, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate for next year is around 0.7%, potentially reaching approximately 7%[3] - The federal government's leverage ratio is anticipated to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the risk of a sovereign debt crisis remains low[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.3%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99[4] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions raises concerns about potential tariff escalations, with about 20 countries facing the possibility of reinstated tariffs[4]