On January 14, Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, appeared on CNBC to state that 2026 is driven by rotation into small caps and advised diversification. Recent data from BofA showed that customers had been selling equities over the six weeks leading up to that point, alongside observed outflows from ETFs that had previously seen consistent inflows. Akoner interpreted this not as a broad move away from risk assets, but rather as a significant rotation within the risk asset class. The shift is drive ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent surge above $92,000 has generated optimism among market participants, with expectations that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could trigger a significant rally [1][4][9] Federal Reserve's Role - Analysts from the London Crypto Club suggest that a liquidity boost from the Federal Reserve may serve as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin's price increase, predicting a "dovish surprise" from the Fed [3][9] - The Fed is anticipated to implement a 25 basis points rate cut, with an 86% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool, and even higher at 94% according to Polymarket [5][9] - Historically, lower interest rates have favored risk assets like Bitcoin by making bonds less attractive and encouraging capital flow into higher-yielding markets [6] Market Conditions - Bitcoin is currently at a critical level, with analysts indicating that it must maintain its position above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone to avoid a decline back to April lows near $76,000 [7][8] - The market is eager for a clear macro signal to reset its direction after a turbulent two months that nearly erased all gains for the year [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Major central banks are nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles, with some, like the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England, having room for further easing [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Swiss National Bank has maintained its key rate at 0% since June, with inflation unexpectedly falling to 0.1% in October, which is not expected to lead to negative rates [2] - The Bank of Canada cut rates to 2.25%, the lowest in over three years, but signals that further cuts are unlikely [3] - Sweden's Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75%, indicating stability unless inflation and growth outlooks change [4] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points to 2.5%, with potential for another cut in late November, complicated by inflation at the top of its target band [5] - The European Central Bank held its main deposit rate at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, with traders pricing in less than a 50% chance of further easing by July 2026 [6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve executed a 25 basis point cut but indicated uncertainty in future cuts due to data gaps from the government shutdown, with a reduced probability of a December cut [7][8] - The Bank of England voted 5-4 to keep rates unchanged at 4%, with a potential cut in December following the government's budget announcement [10]

Group 1 - Ethereum has seen significant inflows, with $380 million in exchange-traded fund inflows on Monday and Tuesday, surpassing Bitcoin's $352 million, indicating institutional accumulation amid optimism [1] - The Ethereum Foundation is enhancing its focus on privacy by forming a new 47-member "Privacy Cluster" team dedicated to integrating privacy into the blockchain's core infrastructure [2] - Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin supports the adoption of privacy technology, emphasizing that privacy should be the default for blockchain users, which is gaining investor attention [3] Group 2 - Railgun, a protocol designed to conceal wallet balances and transactions, has processed $1.6 billion in shielded transfers this year, reflecting a growing demand for privacy tools [4] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the Federal Reserve indicating a potential rate-cutting cycle, which supports the overall outlook for the crypto market [6] - Following a significant liquidation event on October 10, where nearly $20 billion in positions were liquidated, ETF flows have remained resilient, showcasing strong demand from traditional finance investors [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate-cutting cycle, prompting macro investors to reassess the Real Estate sector, which is currently underperforming [1] Group 1: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLRE) is highlighted as the second-worst performing sector, only ahead of the Health Care sector [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider the implications of the Fed's actions on the beleaguered Real Estate sector, indicating potential investment opportunities or risks [1]

Core Insights - There is a significant increase in interest for the latest batch of Silver Bonds in Hong Kong compared to last year, with higher application volumes and values reported by major banks [1][4] - The Hong Kong government's Silver Bonds issue amounts to HK$50 billion (approximately US$6.4 billion) with a three-year tenor and a minimum interest rate of 3.85 percent, which is attractive compared to current bank deposit rates [3][4][5] - The Silver Bonds are specifically designed for senior citizens aged 60 and above, providing them with a secure investment option to cope with rising living costs [6] Subscription Trends - HSBC noted that around 30 percent of applicants for Silver Bonds are new investors, indicating a growing interest in the program [1] - ICBC (Asia) reported that approximately 75 percent of subscriptions were made through online channels, with an average subscription of over 30 lots per customer, reflecting a 20 percent increase from last year [4] - Futu Securities also observed a rise in customer inquiries at its branches, suggesting heightened interest in the Silver Bonds [2] Market Context - The anticipated rate-cutting cycle by the US Federal Reserve and expected declines in Hong Kong interest rates make Silver Bonds an appealing low-risk investment option for senior investors [3] - The return on Silver Bonds is significantly higher than the current interest rate of around 2 percent for 12-month HK dollar time deposits, which is expected to attract between 300,000 to 350,000 senior citizens to subscribe [5]