Let's talk about these markets with Adam Linton from Bloomberg Markets live blog. He joins us on set this Tuesday morning. Adam, very nice to have you with us today.So let's start with what we're seeing in bond markets here in Europe. They've been trading for 15 minutes or so. Yields a little bit lower this morning and sort of maybe unwinding some of the higher yield narrative that we've been dealing with over the last couple of weeks.Some of it sparked by Isabel Schnabel. And then she was busy speaking aga ...

So, Mark, the end seems to be weakening, weakening yields going higher. Some of that is what you would expect from a rate hike, but not all of it. What stands out to you from the BOJ.I'm really surprised the yen has continued to weaken here. And I say that in context that, as you know well, I'm a structural yen bear. I always think the end is going to depreciate forever more.But I actually thought that this press conference in context that government a way to is always a very cautious individual. I you know ...

Company Insights - Nvidia is positioned to have a significant impact on the market, with many high-profile companies expected to move based on Nvidia's earnings report [2][3] - The anticipation surrounding Nvidia's earnings is heightened due to the recent earnings reports from large-cap tech companies, making this a pivotal moment for the stock [3] - Concerns about an AI bubble are influencing trading behavior not only in Nvidia but also in related companies, with expectations that Nvidia's results will clarify market uncertainties [4] Analyst Sentiment - The analyst community remains overwhelmingly positive on Nvidia, with 60 buy ratings, 5 holds, and only 1 sell rating, indicating strong confidence in the company's future performance [5] - While some money managers suggest taking profits due to high concentration in Nvidia and similar stocks, institutional investors are required to maintain heavier weightings in these names [6] Market Context - The upcoming Fed minutes are anticipated to be a market-moving event, with discussions around labor market conditions and inflation influencing investor sentiment [7][9] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a shift in focus towards the labor market rather than inflation, which could impact future rate hike expectations [10][11] - Crude oil futures have seen a significant decline, dropping towards $59, which may also affect inflation discussions and overall market dynamics [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation as market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan diminish, with the USDJPY exchange rate reaching 153 yen per dollar, the lowest since February 14 [1]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The selection of Sanae Takaichi in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest has contributed to the yen's decline, as she advocates for lower interest rates, which are generally detrimental to domestic currencies [1]. - The yen's drop past the 150 level against the dollar is perceived as an initial phase of a more extensive decline, with comparisons drawn to former Prime Minister Abe's policies that favored monetary and fiscal stimulus over structural reforms [2].

Interest Rate Expectations & Monetary Policy - The market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates this month [1][2] - A surprisingly strong CPI number could lead to a reduction in the number of rate cuts priced in for next year, potentially lifting short-term yields [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to remain on hold, with potential minor changes in forecasts [4] - Market expectations for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates have shifted to next year, although some analysts still anticipate a hike this year [7][8] Currency Market - A strong CPI number's impact on the dollar is uncertain; it could either support the dollar with lifted yields or continue the depreciation trend [4] - The market is watching for the Euro to break out of its recent range and reach the 1.20 level, but it remains around 1.18 [5] - The dollar is expected to weaken if the Fed cuts rates while the ECB remains on hold, but this expectation is not strongly reflected in market activity [6] - Citigroup anticipates the dollar/yen to decline significantly, driven by the expectation of a BOJ rate hike [8] Economic Indicators - Recent inflation and jobs data have supported the idea that the Fed needs to proceed with rate cuts [3] - Bloomberg Economics suggests a potentially weak but not overly concerning economic outlook for the Eurozone [5] Geopolitical Factors - Political disruptions in Japan could complicate the BOJ's ability to implement a rate hike [7][8] - The intersection of politics and central bank decisions will require careful monitoring in the coming weeks [9]

Interest Rate Scenarios - Base case: No interest rate cut or raise is expected, with a 99.5% likelihood [1][2] - Bull case: A surprise interest rate cut is considered extremely unlikely but would signal a dovish Fed stance, potentially leading to hyperinflation [1] - Bear case: An interest rate hike is considered a chaotic scenario [1] Market Outlook - The market has already priced in the "no cut, no raise" scenario [1] - ETH's current lows around 3710 are expected to be the weekly lows [1] - Institutional buying is expected to drive the market upwards in the coming weeks [1] Potential Outcomes - Abundance is expected in August [1] - In a bull case scenario, BTC could potentially reach $600,000 [1] - In a bear case scenario, all markets could descend into chaos [1]