This report applies the sectoral balance, real estate cycle, and fiscal flows framework to assess how fiscal and monetary dynamics are shaping risk asset performance. With inflation cooling, unemployment rising, and the Federal Reserve signaling a shift in policy, theTrading real estate, equity and bond markets using fiscal flow analysis, functional finance, demographics and the real estate cycle.I stand on the shoulders of giants such as the work of Professors Wynne Godley, Micheal Hudson, Steve Keen, and ...

以前二十年，大家都认准"买涨不买跌"，说白了就是吃了房地产当经济主引擎的红利，买套房就像抱 上"财富保险箱"，闭着眼都能涨。 但现在不一样了，这波红利早没了，楼市早不是单边上涨的行情，变成了跟着周期慢慢走的节奏。 先搞懂楼市早变天了 我寻思着，这变化不光不可怕，反而是好事。过去靠土地财政和杠杆堆起来的涨势，本来就不长久，现 在波动其实是在挤投机泡沫，让房子回归住的本质。 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊买房这档子绕不开的事儿。现在不管是刚需想上车，还是改善想换 房，都在犯嘀咕：房价到底还会不会跌？什么时候入手才不踩坑？ 其实未来十年的楼市早有暗藏的节奏，不是瞎涨也不是硬跌，但有两个关键节点，直接影响你买房是赚 是套，今天就把这其中的门道扒清楚。 现在身边人聊房价，简直是两极分化。有人喊着跌得惨，有人蹲着想抄底，吵来吵去没个准头。其实这 纠结的根源，就是老观念和新市场的对撞。 以前全家凑钱加杠杆都要买房，现在更愿意把钱分到不同地方，不单独吊在房产这一棵树上。 这种思路转变，进一步拉低了房价上涨的动力，就算偶尔涨一点，也不可能再出现全民追涨的场面。 不管啥资产，都逃不开周期规律，房地产这么大的盘子，跟经济、人口绑在 ...

Core Insights - Prologis, a real estate investment trust, experienced a significant increase in its share price following the announcement of better-than-expected earnings and plans to pursue data center opportunities [1] - Incoming CEO Dan Letter indicated that the marketplace is currently undergoing a "classic real estate cycle," with large, well-capitalized customers driving the market [1] - Dan Letter participated in a discussion on 'Bloomberg Businessweek Daily' to elaborate on the company's strategic direction and the prevailing macroeconomic trends [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core FFO, including net promote expense, was $1.49 per share, and excluding net promotes was $1.50 per share, both exceeding forecasts [7] - Occupancy increased to 95.3%, up 20 basis points from the previous quarter [7] - Rent change was 49% on a net effective basis and 29% on cash, indicating strong lease mark-to-market durability [8] - Same store growth for net effective and cash was 3.9% and 5.2% respectively [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record leasing quarter with nearly 62 million square feet signed, indicating a positive trend in leasing velocity and customer sentiment [5] - Data center business saw an additional 1.5 gigawatts of capacity moved to advanced stages, totaling 5.2 gigawatts secured or in advanced stages [6] - Nine build-to-suit projects signed this quarter, totaling 21 for the year, with expected investment of $1.6 billion [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. market absorption was estimated at 47 million square feet for the third quarter, maintaining market vacancy at 7.5% [13] - Construction pipeline is depleting, with starts below pre-COVID levels, leading to a slowdown in market rent declines [14] - Strongest markets in the U.S. include the Southeast and Texas, with notable absorption in Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined growth and operational excellence, with a strong emphasis on build-to-suit projects and data centers [20] - Exploration of additional capitalization strategies for the data center business to fully capture growth opportunities [6] - The company aims to integrate solar storage and off-grid energy solutions with real estate, enhancing value creation [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted improved customer sentiment and decision-making, with larger occupiers pursuing reconfiguration strategies [12] - The company expects market conditions to improve, with occupancy and rents bottoming out, leading to a potential recovery [19] - Guidance for same store NOI growth has increased to a range of 4.25% to 4.75% on a net effective basis [19] Other Important Information - The company closed on $2.3 billion in financing activity, maintaining a strong balance sheet with an in-place cost of debt at 3.2% [11] - The CEO's last earnings call was acknowledged, highlighting his significant contributions to the company [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the additional capitalization strategies for data centers? - Management is exploring various opportunities in the data center business, including building a dedicated team and leveraging operational synergies [28][30] Question: What is the outlook for net absorption and sustainable demand? - Net absorption of 47 million square feet indicates a clear turning point in demand, with expectations for a normal quarterly velocity of around 60 million square feet [35][38] Question: How do you view the supply-demand balance in the market? - The company believes demand is strengthening while supply remains low, indicating a potential equilibrium in the near future [41][42] Question: What are the expectations for market rent growth? - Management anticipates that market vacancy rates will stabilize and improve over time, leading to potential rent growth [72] Question: How is customer sentiment evolving in the current environment? - Customers are becoming more desensitized to short-term volatility and are making long-term decisions, indicating a positive shift in sentiment [80] Question: What is the company's approach to credit risk and portfolio health? - The company has improved the overall credit health of its portfolio, with bad debt expense remaining below historical crisis levels [84] Question: Can you discuss the transaction market and acquisition opportunities? - The transaction market has shown resilience, with a 25% year-over-year increase in activity, and cap rates remain stable [95] Question: What is the pace of spec development leasing? - Spec development leasing is improving, with lease-up times returning to historical norms [99]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Henderson Land to "Overweight" (OW) from "Equal Weight" (EW) [8][14] - SHKP remains rated as "Overweight" (OW) [5][14] - Sino Land is downgraded to "Equal Weight" (EW) [14] - NWD and Wharf are rated as "Underweight" (UW) [5][14] Core Insights - Hong Kong's residential property market is showing signs of recovery after a seven-year decline, with prices down 30% from their peak in August 2021 [4][15] - The report anticipates a potential upcycle lasting 4-5 years, driven by structural under-supply, population growth, and favorable market conditions [4][15] - The CCL index has declined 30% since August 2021, with current affordability levels reverting to 2011 levels [4][15] - Developers are trading at a 60% discount to NAV, with strong balance sheets and dividend yields of 6-7%, indicating significant upside potential [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date, Hong Kong home prices have declined by 1.5%, which is better than the expected -5% for the first half of 2025 [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 21% year-to-date, positively impacting market sentiment [3][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is structurally under-supplied, with land sales collapsing in recent years and an increase in population and migrants from mainland China [4][10] - The removal of additional stamp duty since February 2024 has further stimulated demand from non-local buyers [3][39] Stock Selection - Preferred stocks include SHKP (OW), Henderson (OW), and Kerry (EW) due to their strong market positions and benefits from lower HIBOR [5][10] - NWD (UW) and Wharf (UW) are viewed with caution due to liquidity concerns and unattractive valuations [5][10] Price Forecasts - The report forecasts a flat year-over-year change in property prices for 2025, with a slight increase of 2% expected in the second half [29][30] - The effective mortgage rate has decreased to approximately 2%, benefiting the residential market and easing financing pressures for developers [53][59] Key Drivers of Recovery - Factors supporting the recovery include low HIBOR rates, population growth, and increased contributions from mainland buyers [20][39] - The report highlights that the current discount to NAV of 60% is not fully priced in, suggesting potential upside of 50% if valuations normalize [19][23]