Workflow
Real Estate Development Model
icon
Search documents
高盛:中国 5 月 70 个城市平均新建商品住宅价格进一步下跌
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-17 06:17
Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decline of 2.4% month-over-month annualized in May, following a decline of 1.8% in April [2][10]. Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that the primary market experienced a broad-based decline in property prices across all city tiers, with year-on-year changes reflecting a decrease of 3.5% in May compared to 4.0% in April [1][7]. - Despite ongoing easing policies, the number of cities with sequentially higher property prices has decreased in both primary and secondary markets [7][15]. - The report highlights that Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities saw declines of 0.8% and 2.2% month-over-month annualized in May, while Tier-3 cities experienced a decline of 3.5% [7][14]. - Local housing easing measures have been implemented, but challenges remain, particularly in lower-tier cities due to weaker growth fundamentals and oversupply issues [8][7]. Summary by Sections Primary Market Performance - The weighted average property price in the primary market fell by 2.4% month-over-month annualized in May, with a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [2][10]. - The sequential decline was observed across all city tiers, with Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities showing declines of 0.8% and 2.2% respectively, and Tier-3 cities declining by 3.5% [7][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes an 8% year-on-year increase in new home transaction volume in June month-to-date, indicating some recovery in major cities [8]. - Inventory months in major cities decreased slightly, primarily driven by Tier-3 cities [8]. Policy Response - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts, including a focus on a new real estate development model and the "good housing initiative" [8]. - Continued measures are expected to stabilize home prices and support the delivery of pre-sold homes, including potential cuts to mortgage rates and expanded bank lending for specific property projects [8].