Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market policies, including interest rate cuts, inventory storage, and urban village renovations, are leading to significant structural differentiation in housing prices across different cities [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Short-term stimulus from interest rate cuts has been observed, with the 5-year LPR reduced to 3.6%, allowing first-time homebuyers to access rates as low as 3.1%, resulting in a monthly payment reduction of approximately 600 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan [3] - In major cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou, the increase in public housing loan limits has lowered the threshold for home purchases, leading to an 82% month-on-month increase in new home transactions in first-tier cities [3] - Long-term constraints exist, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities where inventory digestion periods exceed 36 months, limiting the demand stimulation effect of interest rate cuts [4] Group 2: Inventory Storage - The inventory reduction effect of the storage policy is evident, with 24 provinces initiating stock housing storage, converting 2.9 million square meters of idle housing into affordable housing [5] - The Central Index Research Institute estimates that 300 billion yuan in affordable housing re-loans could store approximately 7.161 million square meters of residential properties, accounting for 7.6% of the 2023 commodity housing sales area [5] - Execution challenges arise due to discrepancies between storage prices and developers' expectations, leading to conflicts in some cities [6] Group 3: Urban Village Renovation - In first-tier cities, the renovation of urban villages has led to significant value appreciation, with areas like Xiamen and Guangzhou restarting monetary compensation, and some projects seeing price increases of up to 74.4% [7] - However, in third and fourth-tier cities, the scale of renovations does not match demand, potentially exacerbating oversupply issues [8] Group 4: City-Level Price Trends - First-tier cities are experiencing structural price increases, particularly in core areas where population inflows and urban village renovations are driving prices up by 5%-10% [9] - Strong second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are seeing moderate price increases of 3%-5%, while weaker second-tier cities like Harbin are facing significant price declines [11][12] - Third and fourth-tier cities are undergoing continuous adjustments, with resource-dependent cities experiencing price drops due to population outflows [13] Group 5: Conclusion and Strategy Recommendations - Housing price trends indicate that core areas in first-tier cities may see price increases of 5%-10%, while weaker cities may experience declines of 5%-10% [18] - Investment strategies suggest that first-time buyers should focus on core areas in first-tier cities or strong second-tier cities, while investors should avoid weaker cities and look for opportunities in urban renovation areas [19] - Policy expectations include potential further interest rate cuts and expanded inventory storage measures, particularly in cities with population inflows [20]