The Low-Cost ETF to Buy Now That Gold Is Above $5,500 Again - 24/7 Wall St. S&P 5006,428.20 +1.03% Dow Jones45,577.60 +1.04% Nasdaq 10023,351.00 +1.07% Russell 20002,473.61 +1.23% FTSE 10010,088.00 +1.76% Nikkei 22551,877.30 +0.72% Investing The Low-Cost ETF to Buy Now That Gold Is Above $5,500 Again By Rich DupreyPublished Mar 30, 9:17AM EDT Quick Read abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) charges 0.17% in annual fees versus 0.40% for SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and 0.25% for iShares Gold Trust (IAU), a cost ...

Core Viewpoint - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) is positioned as a strong investment option for the upcoming rise in gold prices, despite a recent decline in its performance compared to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [1][4]. Performance Summary - SGDM has experienced a 2% decline over the past month and a 3% drop year-to-date, while GDX has increased by 0.9% YTD [1]. - SGDM's year-to-date gain stands at 3.21%, outperforming GDX's 0.92% YTD rise, indicating its resilience in volatile market conditions [4]. Investment Strategy - SGDM employs a factor-based construction that prioritizes miners based on revenue growth, free cash flow yield, and debt-to-equity ratios, focusing on companies with strong financial fundamentals rather than just size [1][5]. - The ETF tracks the Solactive Gold Miners Custom Factors Index, which filters for miners generating returns rather than merely extracting gold [5]. Macro Factors - Real interest rates on 10-year Treasuries are identified as the primary driver for SGDM's performance over the next 12 months, with a sustained move below 4% signaling potential strength for gold miners [2][6]. - The current 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.34%, having risen by 0.26% over the past month, which has coincided with a pullback in gold and mining stocks [7]. Monitoring Indicators - Investors are advised to track the 10-year yield and the Federal Reserve's dot plot for insights into future rate movements, as a decline below 4% would be a bullish signal for SGDM [8]. - The next index rebalance will reflect changes in free cash flow yield, revenue growth, and debt reduction scores, impacting the ETF's holdings [9]. Fund Characteristics - SGDM has total net assets of $662.2 million and charges an expense ratio of 0.50%, which is competitive for a specialized mining fund [10]. - Key holdings include Agnico Eagle Mines (10.15%), Newmont (7.75%), and Wheaton Precious Metals (7.36%), all of which have performed well based on the index's quality factors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of physical gold and silver ETFs has diverged, with gold showing stronger year-to-date gains due to its safe-haven status amid market anxiety, while silver's volatility suggests potential for rapid recovery once market conditions stabilize [2][6][9]. Performance Summary - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has increased by 16% year-to-date, trading around $94, while iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has gained 11%, and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) has risen by 8% [1][5][6]. - Over the past twelve months, SLV has returned 132%, significantly outperforming IAU's 66% return, indicating silver's potential for dramatic price movements when demand aligns [1][7]. Market Dynamics - Gold's year-to-date performance reflects its role as a defensive asset during periods of elevated market anxiety, while silver's underperformance is attributed to its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal [2][6][9]. - The recent drop in silver prices, with SLV falling over 10% in a week compared to a 4% decline in IAU, highlights the differing behaviors of these metals under market stress [8]. Interest Rates and Demand - Real interest rates are a critical factor affecting both gold and silver, as rising rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like these metals [10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been rising, reaching 327.5 in February 2026, which sustains inflation hedging demand for gold and silver [10]. ETF Structure and Liquidity - SLV, managed by BlackRock, holds 99.8% silver bullion with an expense ratio of 0.50% and $46.2 billion in net assets, making it the most liquid silver ETF [11]. - PSLV allows for the redemption of shares for physical silver bars, appealing to retail investors, but can trade at a premium or discount to net asset value based on demand, adding price risk [12]. - IAU has a lower expense ratio of 0.25% on $83.8 billion in assets, making it a cost-efficient option for gold exposure [13]. Trade Setup - Historically, when market volatility decreases and real interest rates stabilize or decline, silver tends to close the performance gap with gold rapidly [14].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, crossing $5,000 per ounce in January before retreating below $4,600, impacting investment strategies in gold ETFs like iShares Gold Trust (IAU) [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold surged to record highs, returning 50% over the past year due to inflation hedging and central bank demand, but has recently seen a sharp pullback of nearly 9% in a single week [3]. - Despite the recent decline, IAU remains up about 6% year-to-date, indicating a divergence between short-term fluctuations and a longer-term bullish trend [3]. Group 2: iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Structure and Costs - IAU offers fractional ownership of physical gold stored in allocated vaults, with no earnings or dividends, and charges a low annual expense ratio of 0.25%, which is lower than SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) at 0.40% [4][7]. - The cost efficiency of IAU makes it an attractive option for investors looking to gain exposure to gold without the complexities of physical storage [4][7]. Group 3: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are crucial for gold's performance; rising yields diminish gold's appeal, while falling real rates or potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could support gold prices as a non-yielding asset [6][7]. - The future performance of gold over the next 12 months will depend on the Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates and the trajectory of Treasury yields [7].

Core Insights - Gold has shown resilience until recent tariff escalations, leading to a 2.43% decline in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) despite a 19.1% year-to-date gain and a 75.96% return over the past year [2][7] - The SPDR Gold Trust holds $174.1 billion in net assets and has a 0.40% net expense ratio, making it a leading vehicle for gold investment in the U.S. market [3][7] - Retail sentiment shifted from bullish to neutral during the recent selloff, indicating a reconsideration of investment strategies rather than a complete abandonment of gold [3] Economic Factors - Real interest rates are identified as the most significant factor influencing GLD's performance over the next year, with the current 10-year Treasury yield at 4.09%, down from 4.29% [4] - Core PCE inflation index rose to 127.92 in December 2025, up from 125.27 in March 2025, suggesting that if tariffs increase goods prices while the Fed maintains rates, gold could benefit from compressed real yields [5] - Analysts from HSBC and UBS have set targets for gold prices based on scenarios involving rate cuts, which are not guaranteed [5] Market Dynamics - The Fed's dot plot and monthly Core PCE releases are critical indicators to watch, as a rise in the 10-year yield towards 4.58% could exert significant pressure on GLD [6]

Quick Read Themes Cloud Computing ETF (CLOD) fell 19% YTD with 15%+ in February, WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) dropped 22% YTD with 65+ holdings (max 2.8%), and First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) declined. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) serve as comparisons. Rising real interest rates compress valuations for cloud and software companies built on future earnings, making the Federal Reserve’s rate path the most important variable. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his to ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects deposit rates to moderate in line with bank lending rates following a cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy repo rate since February 2025, which has resulted in a decline in the weighted average domestic term deposit rate (WADTDR) [5][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Monetary Policy - RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that deposit rates should reflect real interest rates, which remain high despite nominal rates appearing low due to low inflation [5][4]. - The WADTDR on fresh rupee term deposits decreased to 5.57% in October 2025 from 5.61% in September 2025, marking a 105 basis point decline [5][4]. - The decline in deposit rates has been broad-based, with the WADTDR on fresh deposits down by 105 basis points and outstanding deposits softening by 32 basis points over the same period [4][5]. Group 2: Bankers' Perspectives - Bankers have noted that deposit rates have already moderated, suggesting limited scope for further reductions [5]. - Ashwini Kumar Tewari, managing director at State Bank of India, emphasized the importance of considering depositor interests while indicating that the asset-liability committee will decide on any further rate changes [5].

Company Insights - Oracle expects its Cloud Infrastructure business to exceed $500 billion in booked revenue, with shares trading at nearly 50 times estimated 12-month forward earnings, the highest since the dotcom crash [1] - Oracle's share price surged by 43%, raising discussions about the AI bubble and positioning the company close to a $1 trillion market cap [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs but later gave back gains, while the Dow and Russell 2000 fell [3] - Oracle's stock jumped 43%, and Klarnan saw a 30% increase in its NYSE debut, while Apple shares declined by 3.2% [3] Economic Indicators - U.S. producer price inflation figures were surprisingly soft, leading to speculation about a potential half-percentage point cut in U.S. interest rates, which contributed to Wall Street's new highs and lower bond yields [5] - The dollar index ended flat, with the Brazilian real climbing significantly while the Polish zloty faced declines [3]