Economic Performance - President Trump highlighted a significant reduction in inflation, stating it was the worst in 48 years when he took office, and now it is projected to be at 3.1% [1][4] - The federal deficit has decreased by 19% in the first two months of the fiscal year [1] - Gas prices have dropped by 3% compared to the previous year, and the grocery price index has decreased by about 5% since Trump took office [2] Tax Cuts and Refunds - The largest tax cuts in American history are expected to save families between $11,000 and $20,000 annually, with projections for the largest tax refund season ever [1] - A special "warrior dividend" of $1,776 is being sent to 1,450,000 military service members as a holiday gift [1] Wage Growth and Affordability - Real wage growth is being emphasized, with wages reportedly increasing faster than inflation, leading to better affordability for Americans [5][6] - The messaging around affordability has been improved, focusing on the contrast between real wage growth under Trump and wage losses under Biden [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump emphasizes a strong economy and criticizes the Democratic affordability narrative as a "hoax," attributing high inflation and prices to their policies [1][4][11]. Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is described as having the lowest rates globally, with President Trump asserting that without the U.S. economy, there is no global economy [3]. - Inflation is reported to be approximately 3% year-over-year, indicating that prices are not decreasing but rather increasing [6]. Affordability and Wages - Real wage growth has been positive every month during President Trump's terms, contrasting with negative growth during President Biden's administration [8]. - The real measure of affordability is suggested to be real wage growth compared to expenses, rather than the inflation rate itself [7][9]. Policy Recommendations - There is a call for lower interest rates to enhance housing affordability and enable businesses to hire more people, which would further improve economic conditions [10]. Political Context - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticizes blue states for obstructing tax relief measures, claiming this exacerbates financial burdens on low and middle-income households [5]. - The messaging from the Trump administration is seen as needing refinement to better communicate economic improvements and affordability [6][9].

RT Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen)🧵: The US will not be able to reshore, rebuild its grid, & will lose the AI race & great power competition v. China unless US skilled trades & engineers receive positive real wage growth v. essentials like housing, healthcare, college, etc.The US will lose if👇continues. 1/ https://t.co/bKxTOkuwKg ...

Summary of Bread Financial Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bread Financial - **CFO**: Perry Beberman, with over 30 years of experience in financial services, including 17 years at Bank of America [1][2] Industry Insights - **Consumer Health**: The consumer has shown resilience despite economic challenges, with inflation rising approximately 30% post-pandemic. Real wage growth has outpaced inflation in 8 out of the last 9 quarters, with recent figures showing 3.5% wage growth against 3% inflation [7][12] - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are becoming more "choiceful," opting for lower-priced alternatives rather than premium products. This trend is evident in retail, where consumers are adjusting their purchasing decisions based on price sensitivity [8][21] - **Credit Sales**: Credit sales have remained strong through October and early November, although there is caution regarding early November trends due to potential holiday purchasing patterns [8][11] Key Financial Metrics - **Delinquency and Loss Rates**: The company expects a gradual improvement in delinquency trends, with a target loss rate of 6% through the cycle. The current reserve rate stands at approximately 11.7% [20][28] - **Loan Growth**: Loan growth has been slightly negative, but the company anticipates a return to low to mid-single-digit growth rates by 2026, contingent on macroeconomic conditions and consumer health [38][104] Strategic Initiatives - **Partnerships**: The company is focused on expanding its partnerships, particularly in the home vertical, with new signings expected to drive loan growth. The pipeline for new business remains robust, with a preference for smaller, manageable portfolios [47][49] - **Co-brand vs. Private Label**: There is a strategic shift towards co-brand offerings, which are expected to increase as a percentage of total loans. This shift is aimed at capturing a higher-end customer base and improving overall returns [54][58] Market Dynamics - **Competitive Landscape**: The market remains competitive, with the company emphasizing its unique partnership model and disciplined approach to capital management. The company is not pursuing aggressive acquisitions but is open to opportunities that align with its strategic goals [77][117] - **Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)**: Bread Financial has been cautious in the BNPL space, focusing on sustainable lending practices rather than competing with irrational market players. The company aims to offer a full suite of products to its brand partners [78][79] Technology and Innovation - **Tech Stack**: The company has made significant investments in its technology platform, which has helped secure partnerships with sophisticated clients like Crypto.com. Continuous improvements in technology are expected to enhance operational efficiency and product offerings [87][90] Consumer Cohorts - **Monitoring Trends**: The company is closely monitoring various consumer segments, including recent graduates and low-FICO individuals, to identify potential risks or opportunities. Currently, there are no significant signs of distress within the consumer base [96][97] Conclusion - Bread Financial is positioned for gradual growth, with a focus on maintaining strong consumer relationships, expanding partnerships, and leveraging technology to enhance its offerings. The company remains cautious yet optimistic about future performance, particularly as it navigates the evolving economic landscape [118][119]