It's been a few weeks since U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, with that geopolitical event stirring optimism in the commodities complex that the country with the world's largest petroleum reserves will finally be open to Western oil majors. That enthusiasm is proving palpable. Just look at the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEMKT: XLE). One of the bellwether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dedicated to energy stocks, that fund is up 10% year to date. ExxonMobil (NY ...

Core Insights - Gasoline prices have decreased for six consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level in nearly five years due to seasonal factors and lower oil prices [1][4] - The national average gasoline price is currently $2.81 per gallon, which is approximately $0.25 lower than the same time last year and the lowest since March 2021 [2] - Only nine states have average prices above $3 per gallon, with California's average at $4.25 per gallon due to taxes and fees [2] Industry Analysis - The decline in gasoline prices is influenced by the recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by the US, raising questions about Venezuela's energy reserves [3][6] - Analysts from JPMorgan suggest that while Venezuela's oil production may face temporary disruptions, recovery and increased output could occur in the following months, representing a significant upside risk to global oil supply in 2026-2027 [7] - The combined oil reserves of Venezuela, Guyana, and the US could potentially allow the US to control about 30% of global oil reserves, which may help maintain historically lower oil prices [8] Market Trends - Gas prices are expected to reach their lowest point in the coming weeks before starting a seasonal increase towards March [5] - Despite the potential for increased oil supply from Venezuela, the timeline for significant production increases remains uncertain, with analysts indicating it could take years for supply to impact US gasoline prices meaningfully [6]

Group 1 - Gold futures reached a new high, marking another significant day in 2025 for gold prices [1] - The weakening dollar, declining interest rates, and geopolitical factors such as the U.S. President's call for regime change in Venezuela are contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [1] - Front-month gold settled at $4,482.80 per troy ounce, reflecting a 0.9% increase, while silver closed at $70.485 per troy ounce, up 3.8% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for regime change in Venezuela could improve the nation's oil production infrastructure, leading to increased supplies and stabilizing global oil prices, but significant time and investment are required for these improvements [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Production and Infrastructure - A change in Venezuela's socialist regime could significantly impact oil supply and demand over the next decade, but immediate effects are unlikely [3]. - Wood Mackenzie estimates that with improvements and investments, Venezuela's oil output could reach approximately 2 million barrels per day within one to two years, with a potential increase of an additional 500,000 barrels per day taking up to a decade and billions in investment [4]. - Daily global oil production was nearly 102 million barrels in 2023, providing context for Venezuela's potential output increase [4]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Political Context - The U.S. has threatened to force the resignation of President Nicolás Maduro, partly due to accusations of drug trafficking, but access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves is also a significant factor [5]. - Recent U.S. actions, including the seizure of an oil tanker off Venezuela's coast, indicate escalating tensions and a focus on intercepting ships transporting Venezuelan oil [6].