Core Viewpoint - The bond secondary market experienced a slight cooling in trading activity in January 2026, with total transactions amounting to 358,682.06 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.80%, but a year-on-year increase of 27.95% due to the timing of the Spring Festival [1][3]. Trading Activity - In January, the total transaction amount in the bond secondary market was 358,682.06 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.80% but a significant year-on-year increase of 27.95% [1]. - The trading volume of interest rate bonds reached 227,087.36 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.40% and a month-on-month increase of 3.34%, indicating strong trading resilience [3]. - Credit bonds (excluding interbank certificates of deposit) had a transaction amount of 83,606.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64.88% but a month-on-month decrease of 6.02%, contributing to the overall cooling of market activity [3]. Credit Spread Analysis - The credit spread narrowed to 38.11 basis points by the end of January, down 4.21 basis points from the previous month and 27.72 basis points from the same period last year, supported by the central bank's liquidity injections [2][3]. - Most industries saw a narrowing of credit spreads, with the largest reduction in the basic chemical industry at 24.39 basis points, while the household appliances and electronics sectors experienced widening spreads [4]. Industry-Specific Insights - As of January 30, 2026, the highest credit spreads were observed in the household appliances, real estate, and power equipment sectors, while the lowest were in the telecommunications and public utilities sectors [4]. - The credit spread for urban investment bonds shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, narrowing by approximately 8 basis points in January, with most regions experiencing reduced volatility [4]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a pattern of liquidity support and structural differentiation, likely resulting in a stable trading environment [5][6]. - Post-Spring Festival, market liquidity is anticipated to gradually return to normal, with the central bank expected to continue a prudent monetary policy to ensure stable liquidity [6]. - Structural differentiation will persist, with industry rotation in the credit bond market and regional disparities in urban investment bonds, influenced by economic and fiscal strength [6].