Restrictive Policy
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Fed's Powell Says Data Show Labor Market No Longer Solid
Youtube· 2025-09-17 19:16
Economic Policy Insights - The current economic conditions do not warrant a shift away from a restrictive policy setting, indicating that the policy remains at a clearly restrictive level [1] - The labor market has shown solid conditions with strong job creation, but recent revisions to job creation numbers suggest a potential softening in the labor market [2] - The balance of risks between inflation and economic growth is moving toward greater equality, suggesting a potential shift toward a neutral policy stance [3] Interest Rate Decisions - There was no widespread support for a larger than 25 basis points rate cut during the recent meeting, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [4] - The company has implemented significant rate hikes and cuts in the past five years, typically in response to misalignments in policy, but currently feels that the existing policy is appropriate [5] - The company is reacting to evidence of softening in the labor market and lower job creation levels, which may warrant a change in policy direction [6]
Fed Chair Powell: Risks between two goals have moved meaningfully toward greater equality
Youtube· 2025-09-17 19:09
Economic Policy Insights - The current economic conditions suggest that a restrictive policy setting may no longer be warranted, although the policy has remained at a restrictive level throughout the year [1] - The labor market has shown solid conditions with strong job creation, but recent revisions indicate a decline in job creation numbers from April to August, shifting the risks towards inflation [2] - The balance of risks between inflation and economic growth is moving towards equality, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral policy stance [3] Interest Rate Decisions - There was no widespread support for a 50 basis point rate cut, reflecting a consensus that the current policy is appropriate given the economic context [4] - The company believes that the policy has been effective this year, with a cautious approach to changes based on evolving tariffs, inflation, and labor market conditions [5] - The recent evidence of softening in the labor market suggests that while risks are not fully balanced, they are moving towards balance, justifying a change in policy direction [5]