Core Insights - The National Statistics Office (NSO) is set to release retail inflation estimates for January, marking the first report using 2024 as the base year, with differing estimates based on old versus new CPI methodologies [1] Inflation Estimates - Estimates using the old CPI weightings suggest a January inflation rate of 2.5-2.6 percent, while the new series estimates range from 2.45-3.2 percent, indicating a projected increase in retail inflation [2] Factors Influencing Inflation - The expected rise in headline inflation is attributed to the food basket exiting deflation, an increase in core CPI, and higher precious metal prices [3] - The new CPI series reduces the weighting of food & beverages from 45.86 percent to 36.75 percent, which may lessen food inflation's impact on the overall inflation figure [3] Changes in Weightings - The new weightings emphasize urban CPI and services, with a significant increase in the weighting for restaurants and accommodation services from 0.01 percent to 3.35 percent [4] - Transport and information & communications are also expected to see increased weightings by 2.43 and 1.38 percentage points, respectively, while food and beverages, education services, and clothing and footwear will see reductions [5] RBI Projections - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee has slightly revised its inflation projection for 2025-26 to 2.1 percent, citing rising precious metal prices, and has increased its Q4FY26 inflation projection to 3.2 percent [6] Expert Opinions - Economists have varying expectations for January's inflation rate, with estimates around 2.6 percent based on the old base, but caution against making definitive assessments under the new series until more data is available [7] - Some economists predict the new CPI series could push January inflation closer to 2.9 percent due to the reduced weighting of food & beverages, while high gold and silver prices are expected to add significant upward pressure on inflation [8]

Market Overview - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower, with Sensex dropping 250.48 points (0.30%) to 83,627.69 and Nifty declining by 57.95 points (0.22%) to 25,732.30, amid foreign fund outflows and global tariff concerns [1][3] - The market sentiment was sluggish due to a weak start to the earnings season, with the Sensex experiencing a decline of 615.38 points (0.73%) during the day [3] Company Performance - TCS, the largest IT services exporter in the country, reported a 13.91% drop in December quarter profit to Rs 10,657 crore, primarily due to a one-time impact of new labour codes [6] - Among the 30-Sensex firms, major laggards included Trent, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, InterGlobe Aviation, Maruti, ITC, Adani Ports, and Bharat Electronics, while gainers included Eternal, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, and Tata Consultancy Services [4] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 3,638.40 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth Rs 5,839.32 crore [7] Global Economic Impact - US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, which could affect major trading partners like India, China, and the UAE [7][8] - The initial optimism in Indian equity markets was tempered by global tariff-related concerns and mixed reactions to Q3 earnings [9]

Economic Indicators - Stock index futures are showing positive movement with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%, and Dow futures up 0.1% as investors anticipate the retail inflation report [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield remains unchanged at 4.06%, while the 2-year yield is flat at 3.56% [4] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, increasing from 0.2% in the previous month, with a year-over-year forecast of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July [4] Gun Industry - Gun stocks have seen a rise following the shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, with Smith & Wesson up 4.9% in premarket trading after a 6.7% increase on Wednesday [5][7] - American Outdoor Brands closed 5.3% higher and is slightly up in premarket, while Sturm, Ruger closed with a 3% gain and is up 7.4% postmarket [7] - The shooting incident is anticipated to drive demand for stricter gun control laws, historically leading to increased demand for firearms [6] Technology and Robotics - Ant Group has introduced its first humanoid robot, the R1 model, capable of performing various tasks such as serving as a tour guide and sorting medicine [8] - The R1 robot was demonstrated at the 2025 Inclusion Conference in Shanghai, showcasing its ability to handle complex assignments [8] Corporate Developments - Opendoor Technologies shares surged by 40% after the appointment of former Shopify COO Kaz Nejatian as CEO, with co-founders returning to the board [10] - Khosla Ventures and co-founder Eric Wu will invest $40 million in Opendoor through a private placement to support business growth [10]