Group 1: Central Banking and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts after three consecutive meetings, with Chair Jay Powell providing insights during a press conference [2] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 7,000 mark for the first time, indicating strong market performance [3] - Gold prices experienced a historic one-day increase of $220 per ounce, reaching a record high above $5,400, suggesting a bullish trend for precious metals [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - Analysts project that gold could reach $7,000 by the end of President Trump's second term, driven by factors such as rising debt and concerns over Fed credibility [4] - The S&P 500 is expected to see earnings growth of nearly 15% in 2026, with a target of 7,900 by the end of that year, reflecting sustained investor optimism [5] - Robust inflows into equity ETFs and a bullish put-call ratio indicate a positive outlook for the equity markets despite geopolitical uncertainties [5] Group 3: Company Developments - Amazon plans to cut 16,000 corporate jobs as part of a streamlining effort [7] - Snap is establishing a separate unit for its smart eyewear division, indicating a strategic focus on this product line [6] - AT&T aims to expand its fiber network to reach 40 million locations by the end of 2026, highlighting its growth strategy in telecommunications [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin reached $97,538 this week, marking its highest level in two months, yet remains 24% below its October record [1] - Experts suggest that Bitcoin is poised for a significant movement, influenced by external factors beyond Congress and federal regulators [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - Bitcoin performs well in low interest rate environments, and lower rates could benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies [2] - The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has increased, making Bitcoin more sensitive to Federal Reserve actions [2] - There are expectations that a new dovish Fed Chair, appointed by President Trump, will lead to a loss of Fed independence, which could catalyze a new Bitcoin high [3] Group 2: Institutional Involvement - The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in 2024 has led to significant institutional investment, with major institutions purchasing billions in Bitcoin [4] - Ongoing institutional adoption is anticipated to be a key driver for Bitcoin's price increase in 2026 [5] - Recent positive flows into Bitcoin ETFs indicate a shift in market dynamics, with $1.6 billion in ETF shares purchased this week alone [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin whales sold a substantial amount of coins after the cryptocurrency approached the $100,000 mark, contributing to a price decline [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has reached a two-month high, rising as much as 2.4% to $96,348, indicating a potential breakout after weeks of stagnation [1] - Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also saw significant gains, increasing by 5.1% [1] - The recent rally has led to the liquidation of over $600 million in short positions across all cryptocurrencies, with $290 million specifically in Bitcoin [5] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's performance has been influenced by a less-than-expected rise in US inflation and ongoing tensions surrounding the US Federal Reserve, which may enhance the appeal of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset [4] - The current macroeconomic environment is viewed positively for Bitcoin, with traders anticipating increased allocations to the cryptocurrency as it aligns with a gold-catch-up narrative [3][7] Investment Trends - A significant inflow of $754 million into US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on a recent Tuesday reflects growing investor confidence in the rally [5] - Analysts suggest that a sustained break above $95,000 could lead Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark and potentially the 200-day moving average of $106,115 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve is critical for the long-term bullish trend of risk-on assets like Bitcoin, with current market conditions indicating a potential rate cut [1][2]. Interest Rate Decision - The interest rate decision on September 17 is significant as it coincides with the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin, and gold reaching near all-time highs [2]. - Core inflation is above 3.10%, and there is a weakening labor market, with a notable annual revision showing a drop of 911,000 from initial estimates [2]. Market Expectations - Current odds for a 25 basis point rate cut are approximately 94% according to CME's FedWatch tool, while prediction market Myriad indicates an 88% chance [3]. Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Experts agree that a quarter-point rate cut would likely have a long-term bullish impact on risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, but the immediate market reaction will depend on comments made by Fed Chair Powell during the briefing [4]. - Analysts highlight the importance of the dot plot, suggesting that a rate cut without a significant downward revision could lead to a pullback in altcoins due to high open interest [5]. Speculative Activity - Anticipation of a rate cut has led to increased speculative activity, resulting in stretched valuations across various asset classes [6]. - A hawkish surprise from Powell could complicate the Fed's price stability mandate [6]. Bitcoin's Long-term Valuation - Historical data shows that Bitcoin's one-month returns post-rate cut are unpredictable, but three-month estimates indicate a bullish outcome 62% of the time with an average gain of 16.50% [7]. - HashKey Capital projects Bitcoin could reach $700,000 by the end of 2035, assuming a 10% CAGR in gold prices, suggesting a macro narrative of Bitcoin catching up with gold over the next decade [7].