Market Trends - Market experienced a tumble followed by a rise, leading to a rush into risky assets [1] - Risky assets include meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and shares of smaller companies yet to achieve profitability [1]

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

Macro Environment Outlook - The overall fiscal effort has been advanced this year, with expectations for continued positive fiscal policies in the second half, potentially leading to an increase in overall debt growth driven by government department debt growth [1] - The expansion of welfare-oriented fiscal policies and rising inflation may boost nominal GDP growth [1] - Monetary policy is expected to have room for rate cuts in the context of stabilizing growth and exchange rate constraints, with a continued trend of asymmetric rate cuts on both asset and liability sides [1] - The annual social financing growth rate is projected to be around 8.5%, with a peak expected by the end of the third quarter [1] Industry Core Indicators Outlook - The long-term growth center of social financing is strongly correlated with banks' internal capital accumulation ability, and the "volume compensates for price" strategy is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in net interest income [2] - To further reduce deposit costs, improvements in the industry competition landscape or significant reductions in market interest rates are necessary [2] - Loan pricing is closely related to asset liquidity, with current social financing growth significantly exceeding nominal growth, indicating that loan rates are expected to continue declining, although the pace may slow due to various constraints [2] - The overall credit environment remains loose, with expected stability in non-performing loan generation in the second half of the year [2] Asset Liquidity and Allocation Outlook - The turning point of cross-border liquidity will determine the directional shift of domestic asset liquidity, with expectations for accelerated repatriation of funds due to the relatively high returns of RMB assets after considering exchange rate fluctuations [3] - The return rate of risk assets is currently high compared to the 1.6% risk-free rate, indicating a gradual shift of funds towards risk assets such as credit bonds and stocks [3] Industry Prosperity Outlook - Asset-liability pressure is expected to gradually ease in the third and fourth quarters, with year-on-year growth rates for interest-earning assets projected at 7.86% and 7.80% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The narrowing of interest margins is expected to slow down, with overall growth in non-interest income anticipated to turn positive [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the third quarter, with potential upward adjustments in bond market interest rates in the fourth quarter due to high base effects [4] - Overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a projected decline in provisioning contributions [4] - For 2025, the combined revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks are expected to change by -1.67% and -0.29% year-on-year, respectively, with state-owned banks performing better than other sectors [4]

RT apewood (@apewoodx)2020 - 2021:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy brrreasy fiscal + easy monetary policy = perfect storm2022 - 2024:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy tight (fed hiking, flipped in 2022 and game over bubble valuations)- we had glimpse into fed in cutting mode in late 2024 but they quickly flipped back hawkish early 2025easy fiscal + tight monetary policy = not the best conditionsEarly 2025:- fiscal printer - people believed the govt was going to balance the budget (tighter fiscal) ...